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The Use of Multi-State Life Tables in Estimating Places for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists A TECHNICAL PAPER Committee on National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel Panel on Estimation Procedures Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C., 1997
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Brace M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This is based on work supported by the National Institutes of Health. Available in limited supply from Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel National Research Council National Academy of Sciences 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL NEEDS FOR BIOMEDICAL AND BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH PERSONNEL Panel on Estimation Procedures Michael Rothschild, Chair Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Eugene Hammel Department of Demography University of California at Berkeley Alan Krueger Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Robert Mare Center for Demography and Ecology University of Wisconsin Aage Sørensen Department of Sociology Harvard University
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Acknowledgments The paper that follows is a technical paper commissioned by the Committee on National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel. It is being published well after the report of the full committee, in part, because it is an exploration of a technique that should be considered by future committees, as opposed to a technique that was used in the 1994 report. The Panel wishes to thank Alan Fechter, Jeffrey Kallan, Charlotte Kuh, and Pamela Lohof for their assistance in compiling the statistics, editing, and drafting the report.
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Contents Demographic Models 1 Introduction 1 Demographic Modeling: An Overview 5 Modeling the Biomedical/Behavioral Workforce: Strengths and Limitations 7 Applying the Model to the Biomedical and Behavioral Science Workforce 9 The Data 11 Transition Rates 11 Retirements 12 Field Mobility 12 Deaths 13 New Entrants 13 Summary of Flow Data 13 Stability of Estimates 14 Precision of Estimates 15 Initial Results 17 Accuracy of the Model 17 Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations 19 References 21 Appendix A: An Examination of the Assumption of Zero Immigration 23 Appendix B: Age Distribution of New Entrants 25 Appendix C: Transition Rates 29 Appendix D: Frequency Distribution of Coefficients of Variation 33
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List of Tables 1 Estimated Transition Rates by Type, Field, and Time Period 14 2 Estimated Range of Transition Rates by Type, Field, and Time Period 16 B-1 Age Distribution of New Entrants, 1973-1979 25 B-2 Age Distribution of New Entrants, 1979-1985 26 B-3 Age Distribution of New Entrants, 1985-1991 27 C-1 Mortality Rates and Retirement Rates, 1973-1991 29 C-2 Out-Migration Rates, 1973-1991 30 C-3 In-Migration Rates, 1973-1991 31 D-1 Frequency Distribution of Coefficients of Variation 33