sults. Although presenting a number of plausible risk estimates has clear advantages in that it would seem to reflect more faithfully the true state of scientific understanding, there are no well-established criteria for using such complex results in risk management.
The various approaches to dealing with uncertainties inherent to risk assessment, and discussed in the foregoing sections, are summarized in Table C-1.
As will be seen in the chapters on each nutrient, specific default assumptions for assessing nutrient risks have not been recommended. Rather, the approach calls for case-by-case judgments, with the recommendation that the basis for the choices made be explicitly stated. Some general guidelines for making these choices will, however, be offered.
TABLE C-1 Approaches for Dealing with Uncertainties in a Risk-Assessment Program
|
Program Model |
Advantages |
Disadvantages |
|
Case-by-case judgments by experts |
Flexibility High potential to maximize use of most relevant scientific information bearing on specific issues |
Potential for inconsistent treatment of different issues Difficulty in achieving consensus Need to agree on defaults |
|
Written guidelines specifying defaults for data and model uncertainties (with allowance for departures in specific cases) |
Consistent treatment of different issues Maximize transparency of process Allow resolution of scientific disagreements by resort to defaults |
May be difficult to justify departure, or to achieve consensus among scientists that departures are justified in specific cases Danger that uncertainties will be overlooked |
|
Assessors asked to present full array of estimates, using all scientifically plausible models |
Maximize use of scientific information Reasonably reliable portrayal of true state of scientific understanding |
Highly complex characterization of risk, with no easy way to discriminate among estimates Size of required effort may not be commensurate with utility of the outcome |