Part One—
Connecting Mathematics with Work and Life



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--> Overview Mathematics is the key to opportunity. No longer just the language of science, mathematics now contributes in direct and fundamental ways to business, finance, health, and defense. For students, it opens doors to careers. For citizens, it enables informed decisions. For nations, it provides knowledge to compete in a technological community. To participate fully in the world of the future, America must tap the power of mathematics. (NRC, 1989, p. 1) The above statement remains true today, although it was written almost ten years ago in the Mathematical Sciences Education Board's (MSEB) report Everybody Counts (NRC, 1989). In envisioning a future in which all students will be afforded such opportunities, the MSEB acknowledges the crucial role played by formulae and algorithms, and suggests that algorithmic skills are more flexible, powerful, and enduring when they come from a place of meaning and understanding. This volume takes as a premise that all students can develop mathematical understanding by working with mathematical tasks from workplace and everyday contexts. The essays in this report provide some rationale for this premise and discuss some of the issues and questions that follow. The tasks in this report illuminate some of the possibilities provided by the workplace and everyday life.

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--> Contexts from within mathematics also can be powerful sites for the development of mathematical understanding, as professional and amateur mathematicians will attest. There are many good sources of compelling problems from within mathematics, and a broad mathematics education will include experience with problems from contexts both within and outside mathematics. The inclusion of tasks in this volume is intended to highlight particularly compelling problems whose context lies outside of mathematics, not to suggest a curriculum. The operative word in the above premise is "can." The understandings that students develop from any encounter with mathematics depend not only on the context, but also on the students' prior experience and skills, their ways of thinking, their engagement with the task, the environment in which they explore the task—including the teacher, the students, and the tools—the kinds of interactions that occur in that environment, and the system of internal and external incentives that might be associated with the activity. Teaching and learning are complex activities that depend upon evolving and rarely articulated interrelationships among teachers, students, materials, and ideas. No prescription for their improvement can be simple. This volume may be beneficially seen as a rearticulation and elaboration of a principle put forward in Reshaping School Mathematics: Principle 3: Relevant Applications Should be an Integral Part of the Curriculum. Students need to experience mathematical ideas in the context in which they naturally arise—from simple counting and measurement to applications in business and science. Calculators and computers make it possible now to introduce realistic applications throughout the curriculum. The significant criterion for the suitability of an application is whether it has the potential to engage students' interests and stimulate their mathematical thinking. (NRC, 1990, p. 38) Mathematical problems can serve as a source of motivation for students if the problems engage students' interests and aspirations. Mathematical problems also can serve as sources of meaning and understanding if the problems stimulate students' thinking. Of course, a mathematical task that is meaningful to a student will provide more motivation than a task that does not make sense. The rationale behind the criterion above is that both meaning and motivation are required. The motivational benefits that can be provided by workplace and everyday problems are worth mentioning, for although some students are aware that certain mathematics courses are necessary in order to gain entry into particular career paths, many students are unaware of how particular topics or problem-solving approaches will have relevance in any workplace. The power of using workplace and everyday problems to teach mathematics lies not so much in motivation, however, for no con-

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--> text by itself will motivate all students. The real power is in connecting to students' thinking. There is growing evidence in the literature that problem-centered approaches—including mathematical contexts, "real world" contexts, or both—can promote learning of both skills and concepts. In one comparative study, for example, with a high school curriculum that included rich applied problem situations, students scored somewhat better than comparison students on algebraic procedures and significantly better on conceptual and problem-solving tasks (Schoen & Ziebarth, 1998). This finding was further verified through task-based interviews. Studies that show superior performance of students in problem-centered classrooms are not limited to high schools. Wood and Sellers (1996), for example, found similar results with second and third graders. Research with adult learners seems to indicate that "variation of contexts (as well as the whole task approach) tends to encourage the development of general understanding in a way which concentrating on repeated routine applications of algorithms does not and cannot" (Strässer, Barr, Evans, & Wolf, 1991, p. 163). This conclusion is consistent with the notion that using a variety of contexts can increase the chance that students can show what they know. By increasing the number of potential links to the diverse knowledge and experience of the students, more students have opportunities to excel, which is to say that the above premise can promote equity in mathematics education. There is also evidence that learning mathematics through applications can lead to exceptional achievement. For example, with a curriculum that emphasizes modeling and applications, high school students at the North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics have repeatedly submitted winning papers in the annual college competition, Mathematical Contest in Modeling (Cronin, 1988; Miller, 1995). The relationships among teachers, students, curricular materials, and pedagogical approaches are complex. Nonetheless, the literature does supports the premise that workplace and everyday problems can enhance mathematical learning, and suggests that if students engage in mathematical thinking, they will be afforded opportunities for building connections, and therefore meaning and understanding. In the opening essay, Dale Parnell argues that traditional teaching has been missing opportunities for connections: between subject-matter and context, between academic and vocational education, between school and life, between knowledge and application, and between subject-matter disciplines. He suggests that teaching must change if more students are to learn mathematics. The question, then, is how to exploit opportunities for connections between high school mathematics and the workplace and everyday life. Rol Fessenden shows by example the importance of mathematics in business, specifically in making marketing decisions. His essay opens with a dialogue among employees of a company that intends to expand its business into

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--> Japan, and then goes on to point out many of the uses of mathematics, data collection, analysis, and non-mathematical judgment that are required in making such business decisions. In his essay, Thomas Bailey suggests that vocational and academic education both might benefit from integration, and cites several trends to support this suggestion: change and uncertainty in the workplace, an increased need for workers to understand the conceptual foundations of key academic subjects, and a trend in pedagogy toward collaborative, open-ended projects. Further-more, he observes that School-to-Work experiences, first intended for students who were not planning to attend a four-year college, are increasingly being seen as useful in preparing students for such colleges. He discusses several such programs that use work-related applications to teach academic skills and to prepare students for college. Integration of academic and vocational education, he argues, can serve the dual goals of "grounding academic standards in the realistic context of workplace requirements and introducing a broader view of the potential usefulness of academic skills even for entry level workers." Noting the importance and utility of mathematics for jobs in science, health, and business, Jean Taylor argues for continued emphasis in high school of topics such as algebra, estimation, and trigonometry. She suggests that workplace and everyday problems can be useful ways of teaching these ideas for all students. There are too many different kinds of workplaces to represent even most of them in the classrooms. Furthermore, solving mathematics problems from some workplace contexts requires more contextual knowledge than is reasonable when the goal is to learn mathematics. (Solving some other workplace problems requires more mathematical knowledge than is reasonable in high school.) Thus, contexts must be chosen carefully for their opportunities for sense making. But for students who have knowledge of a workplace, there are opportunities for mathematical connections as well. In their essay, Daniel Chazan and Sandra Callis Bethell describe an approach that creates such opportunities for students in an algebra course for 10th through 12th graders, many of whom carried with them a "heavy burden of negative experiences" about mathematics. Because the traditional Algebra I curriculum had been extremely unsuccessful with these students, Chazan and Bethell chose to do something different. One goal was to help students see mathematics in the world around them. With the help of community sponsors, Chazen and Bethell asked students to look for mathematics in the workplace and then describe that mathematics and its applications to their classmates. The tasks in Part One complement the points made in the essays by making direct connections to the workplace and everyday life. Emergency Calls (p. 42) illustrates some possibilities for data analysis and representation by discussing the response times of two ambulance companies. Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates (p. 45) shows how quick, rough estimates and calculations

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--> are useful for making business decisions. Scheduling Elevators (p. 49) shows how a few simplifying assumptions and some careful reasoning can be brought together to understand the difficult problem of optimally scheduling elevators in a large office building. Finally, in the context of a discussion with a client of an energy consulting firm, Heating-Degree-Days (p. 54) illuminates the mathematics behind a common model of energy consumption in home heating. References Cronin, T. P. (1988). High school students win "college" competition. Consortium: The Newsletter of the Consortium for Mathematics and Its Applications, 26, 3, 12. Miller, D. E. (1995). North Carolina sweeps MCM '94.SIAM News, 28 (2). National Research Council. (1989). Everybody counts: A report to the nation on the future of mathematics education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. National Research Council. (1990). Reshaping school mathematics: A philosophy and framework for curriculum. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Schoen, H. L. & Ziebarth, S. W. (1998). Assessment of students' mathematical performance (A Core-Plus Mathematics Project Field Test Progress Report). Iowa City: Core Plus Mathematics Project Evaluation Site, University of Iowa. Strässer, R., Barr, G. Evans, J. & Wolf, A. (1991). Skills versus understanding. In M. Harris (Ed.), Schools, mathematics, and work (pp. 158-168). London: The Falmer Press. Wood, T. & Sellers, P. (1996). Assessment of a problem-centered mathematics program: Third grade. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 27(3), 337-353.

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--> 1— Mathematics as a Gateway to Student Success DALE PARNELL Oregon State University The study of mathematics stands, in many ways, as a gateway to student success in education. This is becoming particularly true as our society moves inexorably into the technological age. Therefore, it is vital that more students develop higher levels of competency in mathematics.1 The standards and expectations for students must be high, but that is only half of the equation. The more important half is the development of teaching techniques and methods that will help all students (rather than just some students) reach those higher expectations and standards. This will require some changes in how mathematics is taught. Effective education must give clear focus to connecting real life context with subject-matter content for the student, and this requires a more ''connected" mathematics program. In many of today's classrooms, especially in secondary school and college, teaching is a matter of putting students in classrooms marked "English," "history," or "mathematics," and then attempting to fill their heads with facts through lectures, textbooks, and the like. Aside from an occasional lab, workbook, or "story problem," the element of contextual teaching and learning is absent, and little attempt is made to connect what students are learning with the world in which they will be expected to work and spend their lives. Often the frag-

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--> mented information offered to students is of little use or application except to pass a test. What we do in most traditional classrooms is require students to commit bits of knowledge to memory in isolation from any practical application—to simply take our word that they "might need it later." For many students, "later" never arrives. This might well be called the freezer approach to teaching and learning. In effect, we are handing out information to our students and saying, "Just put this in your mental freezer; you can thaw it out later should you need it." With the exception of a minority of students who do well in mastering abstractions with little contextual experience, students aren't buying that offer. The neglected majority of students see little personal meaning in what they are asked to learn, and they just don't learn it. I recently had occasion to interview 75 students representing seven different high schools in the Northwest. In nearly all cases, the students were juniors identified as vocational or general education students. The comment of one student stands out as representative of what most of these students told me in one way or another: "I know it's up to me to get an education, but a lot of times school is just so dull and boring. … You go to this class, go to that class, study a little of this and a little of that, and nothing connects. … I would like to really understand and know the application for what I am learning." Time and again, students were asking, "Why do I have to learn this?" with few sensible answers coming from the teachers. My own long experience as a community college president confirms the thoughts of these students. In most community colleges today, one-third to one-half of the entering students are enrolled in developmental (remedial) education, trying to make up for what they did not learn in earlier education experiences. A large majority of these students come to the community college with limited mathematical skills and abilities that hardly go beyond adding, subtracting, and multiplying with whole numbers. In addition, the need for remediation is also experienced, in varying degrees, at four-year colleges and universities. What is the greatest sin committed in the teaching of mathematics today? It is the failure to help students use the magnificent power of the brain to make connections between the following: subject-matter content and the context of use; academic and vocational education; school and other life experiences; knowledge and application of knowledge; and one subject-matter discipline and another. Why is such failure so critical? Because understanding the idea of making the connection between subject-matter content and the context of application

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--> is what students, at all levels of education, desperately require to survive and succeed in our high-speed, high-challenge, rapidly changing world. Educational policy makers and leaders can issue reams of position papers on longer school days and years, site-based management, more achievement tests and better assessment practices, and other "hot" topics of the moment, but such papers alone will not make the crucial difference in what students know and can do. The difference will be made when classroom teachers begin to connect learning with real-life experiences in new, applied ways, and when education reformers begin to focus upon learning for meaning. A student may memorize formulas for determining surface area and measuring angles and use those formulas correctly on a test, thereby achieving the behavioral objectives set by the teacher. But when confronted with the need to construct a building or repair a car, the same student may well be left at sea because he or she hasn't made the connection between the formulas and their real-life application. When students are asked to consider the Pythagorean Theorem, why not make the lesson active, where students actually lay out the foundation for a small building like a storage shed? What a difference mathematics instruction could make for students if it were to stress the context of application—as well as the content of knowledge—using the problem-solving model over the freezer model. Teaching conducted upon the connected model would help more students learn with their thinking brain, as well as with their memory brain, developing the competencies and tools they need to survive and succeed in our complex, interconnected society. One step toward this goal is to develop mathematical tasks that integrate subject-matter content with the context of application and that are aimed at preparing individuals for the world of work as well as for post-secondary education. Since many mathematics teachers have had limited workplace experience, they need many good examples of how knowledge of mathematics can be applied to real life situations. The trick in developing mathematical tasks for use in classrooms will be to keep the tasks connected to real life situations that the student will recognize. The tasks should not be just a contrived exercise but should stay as close to solving common problems as possible. As an example, why not ask students to compute the cost of 12 years of schooling in a public school? It is a sad irony that after 12 years of schooling most students who attend the public schools have no idea of the cost of their schooling or how their education was financed. No wonder that some public schools have difficulty gaining financial support! The individuals being served by the schools have never been exposed to the real life context of who pays for the schools and why. Somewhere along the line in the teaching of mathematics, this real life learning opportunity has been missed, along with many other similar contextual examples. The mathematical tasks in High School Mathematics at Work provide students (and teachers) with a plethora of real life mathematics problems and

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--> challenges to be faced in everyday life and work. The challenge for teachers will be to develop these tasks so they relate as close as possible to where students live and work every day. References Parnell, D. (1985). The neglected majority. Washington, DC: Community College Press. Parnell, D. (1995). Why do I have to learn this? Waco, TX: CORD Communications. Note 1.   For further discussion of these issues, see Parnell (1985, 1995). DALE PARNELL is Professor Emeritus of the School of Education at Oregon State University. He has served as a University Professor, College President, and for ten years as the President and Chief Executive Officer of the American Association of Community Colleges. He has served as a consultant to the National Science Foundation and has served on many national commissions, such as the Secretary of Labor's Commission on Achieving Necessary Skills (SCANS). He is the author of the book The Neglected Majority which provided the foundation for the federally-funded Tech Prep Associate Degree Program.

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--> Almost any numerical claim may be treated as a Fermi question when the problem solver does not have access to all necessary background information. In such a situation, one may make rough guesses about relevant numbers, do a few calculations, and then produce estimates. Mathematical Analysis The examples are solved separately below. Grading Homework Although many component factors vary greatly from teacher to teacher or even from week to week, rough calculations are not hard to make. Some important factors to consider for the teacher are: how many classes he or she teaches, how many students are in each of the classes, how much experience has the teacher had in general and has the teacher previously taught the classes, and certainly, as part of teaching style, the kind of homework the teacher assigns, not to mention the teacher's efficiency in grading. Suppose the teacher has 5 classes averaging 25 students per class. Because the teacher plans to write corrections and comments, assume that the students' papers contain more than a list of answers—they show some student work and, perhaps, explain some of the solutions. Grading such papers might take as long as 10 minutes each, or perhaps even longer. Assuming that the teacher can grade them as quickly as 3 minutes each, on average, the teacher's grading time is: This is an impressively large number, especially for a teacher who already spends almost 25 hours/week in class, some additional time in preparation, and some time meeting with individual students. Is it reasonable to expect teachers to put in that kind of time? What compromises or other changes might the teacher make to reduce the amount of time? The calculation above offers four possibilities: Reduce the time spent on each homework paper, reduce the number of students per class, reduce the number of classes taught each day, or reduce the number of days per week that homework will be collected. If the teacher decides to spend at most 2 hours grading each night, what is the total number of students for which the teacher should have responsibility? This calculation is a partial reverse of the one above: If the teacher still has 5 classes, that would mean 8 students per class! The New York Times Answering this question requires two preliminary estimates: the circulation of The New York Times and the size of the newspaper. The answers will probably be different on Sundays. Though The New York Times is a national newspaper, the number of subscribers outside the New York metropolitan area is probably small compared to the number inside. The population of the New York metropolitan area is roughly ten million people. Since most families buy at most one copy, and not all families buy The New York Times, the circulation might be about 1 million newspapers each day. (A circulation of 500,000 seems too small and 2 million seems too big.) The Sunday and weekday editions probably have different

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--> circulations, but assume that they are the same since they probably differ by less than a factor of two—much less than an order of magnitude. When folded, a weekday edition of the paper measures about 1/2 inch thick, a little more than 1 foot long, and about 1 foot wide. A Sunday edition of the paper is the same width and length, but perhaps 2 inches thick. For a week, then, the papers would stack 6 × 1/2 + 2 = 5 inches thick, for a total volume of about 1 ft × 1 ft × 5/12 ft = 0.5 ft3. The whole circulation, then, would require about 1/2 million cubic feet of paper per week, or about 1 million cubic feet for a two-week supply. Is the company's warehouse big enough? The paper will come on rolls, but to make the estimates easy, assume it is stacked. If it were stacked 10 feet high, the supply would require 100,000 square feet of floor space. The company's 14,000 square foot storage facility will probably not be big enough as its size differs by almost an order of magnitude from the estimate. The circulation estimate and the size of the newspaper estimate should each be within a factor of 2, implying that the 100,000 square foot estimate is off by at most a factor of 4—less than an order of magnitude. How big a warehouse is needed? An acre is 43,560 square feet so about two acres of land is needed. Alternatively, a warehouse measuring 300 ft × 300 ft (the length of a football field in both directions) would contain 90,000 square feet of floor space, giving a rough idea of the size. Extensions After gaining some experience with these types of problems, students can be encouraged to pay close attention to the units and to be ready to make and support claims about the accuracy of their estimates. Paying attention to units and including units as algebraic quantities in calculations is a common technique in engineering and the sciences. Reasoning about a formula by paying attention only to the units is called dimensional analysis. Sometimes, rather than a single estimate, it is helpful to make estimates of upper and lower bounds. Such an approach reinforces the idea that an exact answer is not the goal. In many situations, students could first estimate upper and lower bounds, and then collect some real data to determine whether the answer lies between those bounds. In the traditional game of guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, for example, all students should be able to estimate within an order of magnitude, or perhaps within a factor of two. Making the closest guess, however, involves some chance. Fermi questions are useful outside the workplace. Some Fermi questions have political ramifications: How many miles of streets are in your city or town? The police chief is considering increasing police presence so that every street is patrolled by car at least once every 4 hours. When will your town fill up its landfill? Is this a very urgent matter for the town's waste management personnel to assess in depth? In his 1997 State of the Union address, President Clinton renewed his call for a tax deduction of up to $10,000 for the cost of college tuition. He estimates that 16.5 million students stand to benefit. Is this a reasonable estimate of the number who might take advantage of the tax deduction? How much will the deduction cost in lost federal revenue?

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--> Creating Fermi problems is easy. Simply ask quantitative questions for which there is no practical way to determine exact values. Students could be encouraged to make up their own. Examples are: ''How many oak trees are there in Illinois?" or "How many people in the U.S. ate chicken for dinner last night?" "If all the people in the world were to jump in the ocean, how much would it raise the water level?" Give students the opportunity to develop their own Fermi problems and to share them with each other. It can stimulate some real mathematical thinking.

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--> Scheduling Elevators Task In some buildings, all of the elevators can travel to all of the floors, while in others the elevators are restricted to stopping only on certain floors. What is the advantage of having elevators that travel only to certain floors? When is this worth instituting? Commentary Scheduling elevators is a common example of an optimization problem that has applications in all aspects of business and industry. Optimal scheduling in general not only can save time and money, but it can contribute to safety (e.g., in the airline industry). The elevator problem further illustrates an important feature of many economic and political arguments—the dilemma of trying simultaneously to optimize several different needs. Politicians often promise policies that will be the least expensive, save the most lives, and be best for the environment. Think of flood control or occupational safety rules, for example. When we are lucky, we can perhaps find a strategy of least cost, a strategy that saves the most lives, or a strategy that damages the environment least. But these might not be the same strategies: generally one cannot simultaneously satisfy two or more independent optimization conditions. This is an important message for students to learn, in order to become better educated and more critical consumers and citizens. In the elevator problem, customer satisfaction can be emphasized by minimizing the average elevator time (waiting plus riding) for employees in an office building. Minimizing wait-time during rush hours means delivering many people quickly, which might be accomplished by filling the elevators and making few stops. During off-peak hours, however, minimizing wait-time means maximizing the availability of the elevators. There is no reason to believe that these two goals will yield the same strategy. Finding the best strategy for each is a mathematical problem; choosing one of the two strategies or a compromise strategy is a management decision, not a mathematical deduction. This example serves to introduce a complex topic whose analysis is well within the range of high school students. Though the calculations require little more than arithmetic, the task puts a premium on the creation of reasonable alternative strategies. Students should recognize that some configurations (e.g., all but one elevator going to the top floor and the one going to all the others) do not merit consideration, while others are plausible. A systematic evaluation of all possible configurations is usually required to find the optimal solution. Such a systematic search of the possible solution space is important in many modeling situations where a formal optimal strategy is not known. Creating and evaluating reasonable strategies for the elevators is quite appropriate for high school student mathematics and lends itself well to thoughtful group effort. How do you invent new strategies? How do you know that you have considered all plausible strategies? These are mathematical questions, and they are especially amenable to group discussion. Students should be able to use the techniques first developed in solving a simple case with only a few stories and a few elevators to address more realistic situations (e.g., 50 stories, five elevators). Using the results of a similar but simpler problem to model a more complicated problem is an important way to reason in mathematics. Students

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--> need to determine what data and variables are relevant. Start by establishing the kind of building—a hotel, an office building, an apartment building? How many people are on the different floors? What are their normal destinations (e.g., primarily the ground floor or, perhaps, a roof-top restaurant). What happens during rush hours? To be successful at the elevator task, students must first develop a mathematical model of the problem. The model might be a graphical representation for each elevator, with time on the horizontal axis and the floors represented on the vertical axis, or a tabular representation indicating the time spent on each floor. Students must identify the pertinent variables and make simplifying assumptions about which of the possible floors an elevator will visit. Mathematical Analysis This section works through some of the details in a particularly simple case. Consider an office building with six occupied floors, employing 240 people, and a ground floor that is not used for business. Suppose there are three elevators, each of which can hold 10 people. Further suppose that each elevator takes approximately 25 seconds to fill on the ground floor, then takes 5 seconds to move between floors and 15 seconds to open and close at each floor on which it stops. Scenario One What happens in the morning when everyone arrives for work? Assume that everyone arrives at approximately the same time and enters the elevators on the ground floor. If all elevators go to all floors and if the 240 people are evenly divided among all three elevators, each elevator will have to make 8 trips of 10 people each. When considering a single trip of one elevator, assume for simplicity that 10 people get on the elevator at the ground floor and that it stops at each floor on the way up, because there may be an occupant heading to each floor. Adding 5 seconds to move to each floor and 15 seconds to stop yields 20 seconds for each of the six floors. On the way down, since no one is being picked up or let off, the elevator does not stop, taking 5 seconds for each of six floors for a total of 30 seconds. This round-trip is represented in Table 1. TABLE 1: Elevator round-trip time, Scenario one   TIME (SEC) Ground Floor 25 Floor 1 20 Floor 2 20 Floor 3 20 Floor 4 20 Floor 5 20 Floor 6 20 Return 30 ROUND-TRIP 175 Since each elevator makes 8 trips, the total time will be 1,400 seconds or 23 minutes, 20 seconds. Scenario Two Now suppose that one elevator serves floors 1–3 and, because of the longer trip, two elevators are assigned to floors 4–6. The elevators serving the top

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--> TABLE 2: Elevator round-trip times, Scenario two   ELEVATOR A ELEVATORS B & C   Stop Time STOP TIME Ground Floor   25   25 Floor 1 1 20   5 Floor 2 2 20   5 Floor 3 3 20   5 Floor 4   0 4 20 Floor 5   0 5 20 Floor 6   0 6 20 Return   15   30 ROUND-TRIP   100   130 floors will save 15 seconds for each of floors 1–3 by not stopping. The elevator serving the bottom floors will save 20 seconds for each of the top floors and will save time on the return trip as well. The times for these trips are shown in Table 2. Assuming the employees are evenly distributed among the floors (40 people per floor), elevator A will transport 120 people, requiring 12 trips, and elevators B and C will transport 120 people, requiring 6 trips each. These trips will take 1200 seconds (20 minutes) for elevator A and 780 seconds (13 minutes) for elevators B and C, resulting in a small time savings (about 3 minutes) over the first scenario. Because elevators B and C are finished so much sooner than elevator A, there is likely a more efficient solution. Scenario Three The two round-trip times in Table 2 do not differ by much because the elevators move quickly between floors but stop at floors relatively slowly. This observation suggests that a more efficient arrangement might be to assign each elevator to a pair of floors. The times for such a scenario are listed in Table 3. Again assuming 40 employees per floor, each elevator will deliver 80 people, requiring 8 trips, taking at most a total of 920 seconds. Thus this assignment of elevators results in a time savings of almost 35% when compared with the 1400 seconds it would take to deliver all employees via unassigned elevators. TABLE 3: Elevator round-trip times, Scenario three   ELEVATOR A ELEVATOR B ELEVATOR C   STOP TIME STOP TIME STOP TIME Ground Floor   25   25   25 Floor 1 1 20   5   5 Floor 2 2 20   5   5 Floor 3   0 3 20   5 Floor 4   0 4 20   5 Floor 5   0   0 5 20 Floor 6   0   0 6 20 Return   10   20   30 ROUND-TRIP   75   95   115

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--> Perhaps this is the optimal solution. If so, then the above analysis of this simple case suggests two hypotheses: The optimal solution assigns each floor to a single elevator. If the time for stopping is sufficiently larger than the time for moving between floors, each elevator should serve the same number of floors. Mathematically, one could try to show that this solution is optimal by trying all possible elevator assignments or by carefully reasoning, perhaps by showing that the above hypotheses are correct. Practically, however, it doesn't matter because this solution considers only the morning rush hour and ignores periods of low use. The assignment is clearly not optimal during periods of low use, and much of the inefficiency is related to the first hypothesis for rush hour optimization: that each floor is served by a single elevator. With this condition, if an employee on floor 6 arrives at the ground floor just after elevator C has departed, for example, she or he will have to wait nearly two minutes for elevator C to return, even if elevators A and B are idle. There are other inefficiencies that are not considered by focusing on the rush hour. Because each floor is served by a single elevator, an employee who wishes to travel from floor 3 to floor 6, for example, must go via the ground floor and switch elevators. Most employees would prefer more flexibility than a single elevator serving each floor. At times when the elevators are not all busy, unassigned elevators will provide the quickest response and the greatest flexibility. Because this optimal solution conflicts with the optimal rush hour solution, some compromise is necessary. In this simple case, perhaps elevator A could serve all floors, elevator B could serve floors 1-3, and elevator C could serve floors 4-6. The second hypothesis, above, deserves some further thought. The efficiency of the rush hour solution Table 3 is due in part to the even division of employees among the floors. If employees were unevenly distributed with, say, 120 of the 240 people working on the top two floors, then elevator C would need to make 12 trips, taking a total of 1380 seconds, resulting in almost no benefit over unassigned elevators. Thus, an efficient solution in an actual building must take into account the distribution of the employees among the floors. Because the stopping time on each floor is three times as large as the traveling time between floors (15 seconds versus 5 seconds), this solution effectively ignores the traveling time by assigning the same number of employees to each elevator. For taller buildings, the traveling time will become more significant. In those cases fewer employees should be assigned to the elevators that serve the upper floors than are assigned to the elevators that serve the lower floors. Extensions The problem can be made more challenging by altering the number of elevators, the number of floors, and the number of individuals working on each floor. The rate of movement of elevators can be determined by observing buildings in the local area. Some elevators move more quickly than others. Entrance and exit times could also be measured by students collecting

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--> data on local elevators. In a similar manner, the number of workers, elevators, and floors could be taken from local contexts. A related question is, where should the elevators go when not in use? Is it best for them to return to the ground floor? Should they remain where they were last sent? Should they distribute themselves evenly among the floors? Or should they go to floors of anticipated heavy traffic? The answers will depend on the nature of the building and the time of day. Without analysis, it will not be at all clear which strategy is best under specific conditions. In some buildings, the elevators are controlled by computer programs that "learn" and then anticipate the traffic patterns in the building. A different example that students can easily explore in detail is the problem of situating a fire station or an emergency room in a city. Here the key issue concerns travel times to the region being served, with conflicting optimization goals: average time vs. maximum time. A location that minimizes the maximum time of response may not produce the least average time of response. Commuters often face similar choices in selecting routes to work. They may want to minimize the average time, the maximum time, or perhaps the variance, so that their departure and arrival times are more predictable. Most of the optimization conditions discussed so far have been expressed in units of time. Sometimes, however, two optimization conditions yield strategies whose outcomes are expressed in different (and sometimes incompatible) units of measurement. In many public policy issues (e.g., health insurance) the units are lives and money. For environmental issues, sometimes the units themselves are difficult to identify (e.g., quality of life). When one of the units is money, it is easy to find expensive strategies but impossible to find ones that have virtually no cost. In some situations, such as airline safety, which balances lives versus dollars, there is no strategy that minimize lives lost (since additional dollars always produce slight increases in safety), and the strategy that minimizes dollars will be at $0. Clearly some compromise is necessary. Working with models of different solutions can help students understand the consequences of some of the compromises.

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--> Heating-Degree-Days Task An energy consulting firm that recommends and installs insulation and similar energy saving devices has received a complaint from a customer. Last summer she paid $540 to insulate her attic on the prediction that it would save 10% on her natural gas bills. Her gas bills have been higher than the previous winter, however, and now she wants a refund on the cost of the insulation. She admits that this winter has been colder than the last, but she had expected still to see some savings. The facts: This winter the customer has used 1,102 therms, whereas last winter she used only 1,054 therms. This winter has been colder: 5,101 heating-degree-days this winter compared to 4,201 heating-degree-days last winter. (See explanation below.) How does a representative of the energy consulting firm explain to this customer that the accumulated heating-degree-days measure how much colder this winter has been, and then explain how to calculate her anticipated versus her actual savings. Commentary Explaining the mathematics behind a situation can be challenging and requires a real knowledge of the context, the procedures, and the underlying mathematical concepts. Such communication of mathematical ideas is a powerful learning device for students of mathematics as well as an important skill for the workplace. Though the procedure for this problem involves only proportions, a thorough explanation of the mathematics behind the procedure requires understanding of linear modeling and related algebraic reasoning, accumulation and other precursors of calculus, as well as an understanding of energy usage in home heating. Mathematical Analysis The customer seems to understand that a straight comparison of gas usage does not take into account the added costs of colder weather, which can be significant. But before calculating any anticipated or actual savings, the customer needs some understanding of heating-degree-days. For many years, weather services and oil and gas companies have been using heating-degree-days to explain and predict energy usage and to measure energy savings of insulation and other devices. Similar degree-day units are also used in studying insect populations and crop growth. The concept provides a simple measure of the accumulated amount of cold or warm weather over time. In the discussion that follows, all temperatures are given in degrees Fahrenheit, although the process is equally workable using degrees Celsius. Suppose, for example, that the minimum temperature in a city on a given day is 52 degrees and the maximum temperature is 64 degrees. The average temperature for the day is then taken to be 58 degrees. Subtracting that result from 65 degrees (the cutoff point for heating), yields 7 heating-degree-days for the day. By recording high and low temperatures and computing their average each day, heating-degree-days can be accumulated over the course of a month, a winter, or any period of time as a measure of the coldness of that period. Over five consecutive days, for example, if the average temperatures were 58, 50, 60, 67, and 56 degrees Fahrenheit, the calculation yields 7, 15, 5, 0, and 9 heating-degree-days respectively, for a total accumulation of 36 heating-degree-days for the five days. Note that the fourth day contributes 0 heating-degree-days to the total because the temperature was above 65 degrees.

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--> The relationship between average temperatures and heating-degree-days is represented graphically in Figure 1. The average temperatures are shown along the solid line graph. The area of each shaded rectangle represents the number of heating-degree-days for that day, because the width of each rectangle is one day and the height of each rectangle is the number of degrees below 65 degrees. Over time, the sum of the areas of the rectangles represents the number of heating-degree-days accumulated during the period. (Teachers of calculus will recognize connections between these ideas and integral calculus.) The statement that accumulated heating-degree-days should be proportional to gas or heating oil usage is based primarily on two assumptions: first, on a day for which the average temperature is above 65 degrees, no heating should be required, and therefore there should be no gas or heating oil usage; second, a day for which the average temperature is 25 degrees (40 heating-degree-days) should require twice as much heating as a day for which the average temperature is 45 FIGURE 1: Daily heating-degree-days degrees (20 heating-degree-days) because there is twice the temperature difference from the 65 degree cutoff. The first assumption is reasonable because most people would not turn on their heat if the temperature outside is above 65 degrees. The second assumption is consistent with Newton's law of cooling, which states that the rate at which an object cools is proportional to the difference in temperature between the object and its environment. That is, a house which is 40 degrees warmer than its environment will cool at twice the rate (and therefore consume energy at twice the rate to keep warm) of a house which is 20 degrees warmer than its environment. The customer who accepts the heating-degree-day model as a measure of energy usage can compare this winter's usage with that of last winter. Because 5,101/4,201 = 1.21, this winter has been 21% colder than last winter, and therefore each house should require 21% more heat than last winter. If this customer hadn't installed the insulation, she would have required 21% more heat than last year, or about 1,275 therms. Instead, she has required only 5% more heat (1,102/1,054 = 1.05), yielding a savings of 14% off what would have been required (1,102/1,275 = .86). Another approach to this would be to note that last year the customer used 1,054 therms/4,201 heating-degree-days = .251 therms/heating-degree-day, whereas this year she has used 1,102 therms/5,101 heating-degree-days = .216 therms/heating-degree-day, a savings of 14%, as before.

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--> Extensions How good is the heating-degree-day model in predicting energy usage? In a home that has a thermometer and a gas meter or a gauge on a tank, students could record daily data for gas usage and high and low temperature to test the accuracy of the model. Data collection would require only a few minutes per day for students using an electronic indoor/outdoor thermometer that tracks high and low temperatures. Of course, gas used for cooking and heating water needs to be taken into account. For homes in which the gas tank has no gauge or doesn't provide accurate enough data, a similar experiment could be performed relating accumulated heating-degree-days to gas or oil usage between fill-ups. It turns out that in well-sealed modern houses, the cutoff temperature for heating can be lower than 65 degrees (sometimes as low as 55 degrees) because of heat generated by light bulbs, appliances, cooking, people, and pets. At temperatures sufficiently below the cutoff, linearity turns out to be a good assumption. Linear regression on the daily usage data (collected as suggested above) ought to find an equation something like U = -.251(T - 65), where T is the average temperature and U is the gas usage. Note that the slope, -.251, is the gas usage per heating-degree-day, and 65 is the cutoff. Note also that the accumulation of heating-degree-days takes a linear equation and turns it into a proportion. There are some important data analysis issues that could be addressed by such an investigation. It is sometimes dangerous, for example, to assume linearity with only a few data points, yet this widely used model essentially assumes linearity from only one data point, the other point having coordinates of 65 degrees, 0 gas usage. Over what range of temperatures, if any, is this a reasonable assumption? Is the standard method of computing average temperature a good method? If, for example, a day is mostly near 20 degrees but warms up to 50 degrees for a short time in the afternoon, is 35 heating-degree-days a good measure of the heating required that day? Computing averages of functions over time is a standard problem that can be solved with integral calculus. With knowledge of typical and extreme rates of temperature change, this could become a calculus problem or a problem for approximate solution by graphical methods without calculus, providing background experience for some of the important ideas in calculus. Students could also investigate actual savings after insulating a home in their school district. A customer might typically see 8-10% savings for insulating roofs, although if the house is framed so that the walls act like chimneys, ducting air from the house and the basement into the attic, there might be very little savings. Eliminating significant leaks, on the other hand, can yield savings of as much as 25%. Some U.S. Department of Energy studies discuss the relationship between heating-degree-days and performance and find the cutoff temperature to be lower in some modern houses. State energy offices also have useful documents. What is the relationship between heating-degree-days computed using degrees Fahrenheit, as above, and heating-degree-days computed using degrees Celsius? Showing that the proper conversion is a direct proportion and not the standard Fahrenheit-Celsius conversion formula requires some careful and sophisticated mathematical thinking.