Level of Net Immigration

Population

Zero

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Asian

1950

 

 

.7

 

 

1960

 

 

1.1

 

 

1970

 

 

1.8

 

 

1980

 

 

3.7

 

 

1990

 

 

7.3

 

 

1995

 

 

8.8

 

 

2000

9.6

10.3

10.8

11.4

11.9

2010

11.0

13.4

15.1

16.9

18.6

2020

11.3

16.5

19.6

22.9

25.9

2030

13.5

19.9

24.4

29.3

33.7

2040

14.3

22.9

29.1

35.6

41.7

2050

14.9

25.9

33.7

42.1

49.7

Hispanic

1950

 

 

4.0

 

 

1960

 

 

6.3

 

 

1970

 

 

9.6

 

 

1980

 

 

14.6

 

 

1990

 

 

22.4

 

 

1995

 

 

26.9

 

 

2000

29.8

30.9

31.7

32.5

33.3

2010

35.2

39.3

42.2

45.2

47.9

2020

40.3

48.1

53.7

59.5

64.6

2030

45.2

57.6

66.5

75.6

83.8

2040

49.4

67.4

80.2

93.4

105.3

2050

52.8

77.2

94.7

112.7

128.8

tify with the ethnic group. This midpoint comes close to a biological view in which 50 percent of children identify with the parent's ethnicity.

The Asian population has moderate rates of exogamy and of self-identification—less than 50 percent (see Appendix 3B: Tables 3.B3 and 3.B4). As a greater proportion of the Asian population is accounted for by the second, third, and fourth-plus generations, the projection reflects the increasing level of exogamy. Overall, the size of the Asian population in 2050 for the spectrum of assumptions, from low to high attribution, is within a range of 31 to 37 million.

Although the Hispanic population is expected to expand rapidly, its growth will be magnified by moderate levels of exogamy and attribution rates above 50 percent (see Appendix 3.B: Tables 3.B3 and 3.B4), resulting in growth rates greater than baseline assumptions. Unless the extremely low attribution conditions prevail, under the more reasonable low to high attribution assumptions, the



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