. "3 The Face of the U.S. Population in 2050." The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1997.
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Level of Net Immigration
Population
Zero
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Asian
1950
.7
1960
1.1
1970
1.8
1980
3.7
1990
7.3
1995
8.8
2000
9.6
10.3
10.8
11.4
11.9
2010
11.0
13.4
15.1
16.9
18.6
2020
11.3
16.5
19.6
22.9
25.9
2030
13.5
19.9
24.4
29.3
33.7
2040
14.3
22.9
29.1
35.6
41.7
2050
14.9
25.9
33.7
42.1
49.7
Hispanic
1950
4.0
1960
6.3
1970
9.6
1980
14.6
1990
22.4
1995
26.9
2000
29.8
30.9
31.7
32.5
33.3
2010
35.2
39.3
42.2
45.2
47.9
2020
40.3
48.1
53.7
59.5
64.6
2030
45.2
57.6
66.5
75.6
83.8
2040
49.4
67.4
80.2
93.4
105.3
2050
52.8
77.2
94.7
112.7
128.8
tify with the ethnic group. This midpoint comes close to a biological view in which 50 percent of children identify with the parent's ethnicity.
The Asian population has moderate rates of exogamy and of self-identification—less than 50 percent (see Appendix 3B: Tables 3.B3 and 3.B4). As a greater proportion of the Asian population is accounted for by the second, third, and fourth-plus generations, the projection reflects the increasing level of exogamy. Overall, the size of the Asian population in 2050 for the spectrum of assumptions, from low to high attribution, is within a range of 31 to 37 million.
Although the Hispanic population is expected to expand rapidly, its growth will be magnified by moderate levels of exogamy and attribution rates above 50 percent (see Appendix 3.B: Tables 3.B3 and 3.B4), resulting in growth rates greater than baseline assumptions. Unless the extremely low attribution conditions prevail, under the more reasonable low to high attribution assumptions, the
