TABLE 3.8 U.S. Population, by Ethnic Groups and Level of Ethnic Attribution: Observed Population, 1950-1995; Projected Population, 2000-2050 (millions)

Population

Very Low

Low

Half

Medium

High

Very High

White

1950

 

 

134.4

 

 

 

1970

 

 

170.4

 

 

 

1990

 

 

187.1

 

 

 

1995

 

 

193.6

 

 

 

2020

191.0

207.0

210.0

209.1

211.3

215.3

2050

175.5

195.2

203.9

201.4

207.8

220.3

Black

1950

 

 

15.7

 

 

 

1970

 

 

23.0

 

 

 

1990

 

 

30.0

 

 

 

1995

 

 

31.6

 

 

 

2020

37.5

41.6

41.9

41.9

43.0

43.7

2050

43.2

51.1

52.3

53.7

56.4

59.2

Asian

1950

 

 

.7

 

 

 

1970

 

 

1.8

 

 

 

1990

 

 

7.3

 

 

 

1995

 

 

8.8

 

 

 

2020

17.3

19.1

19.8

19.6

20.2

21.4

2050

27.9

31.3

35.2

33.7

36.5

42.9

Hispanic

1950

 

 

4.0

 

 

 

1970

 

 

9.6

 

 

 

1990

 

 

22.4

 

 

 

1995

 

 

26.9

 

 

 

2020

43.7

51.5

52.2

53.7

56.0

57.9

2050

64.5

85.0

87.8

94.7

105.5

115.2

Note: Assumed level of ethnic attribution for multiple-ancestry persons is: Very low = 0 percent; Low = .2 less than medium assumption; Half = 50 percent; Medium = attribution rates estimated from 1990 census data, see Table 3.B4; High = .2 greater than medium assumption; Very high = 100 percent.

Hispanic population is likely to increase in number from 85 to 106 million in 2050.46

These projections imply substantial growth in multiple-ancestry persons, re-

46  

The white population has low exogamy rates and attribution rates below 50 percent, resulting in population growth that is less than expected from conventional baseline assumptions. It will reach a maximum about 2020 to 2030 and then decline for all attribution assumptions except the extremely high one. For the plausible range of low to high attribution rates, the white population will range in size from about 195 million to about 208 million in 2050. The black population has relatively low



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