. "3 The Face of the U.S. Population in 2050." The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1997.
The following HTML text is provided to enhance online
readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML.
Please use the page image
as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy.
TABLE 3.8 U.S. Population, by Ethnic Groups and Level of Ethnic Attribution: Observed Population, 1950-1995; Projected Population, 2000-2050 (millions)
Population
Very Low
Low
Half
Medium
High
Very High
White
1950
134.4
1970
170.4
1990
187.1
1995
193.6
2020
191.0
207.0
210.0
209.1
211.3
215.3
2050
175.5
195.2
203.9
201.4
207.8
220.3
Black
1950
15.7
1970
23.0
1990
30.0
1995
31.6
2020
37.5
41.6
41.9
41.9
43.0
43.7
2050
43.2
51.1
52.3
53.7
56.4
59.2
Asian
1950
.7
1970
1.8
1990
7.3
1995
8.8
2020
17.3
19.1
19.8
19.6
20.2
21.4
2050
27.9
31.3
35.2
33.7
36.5
42.9
Hispanic
1950
4.0
1970
9.6
1990
22.4
1995
26.9
2020
43.7
51.5
52.2
53.7
56.0
57.9
2050
64.5
85.0
87.8
94.7
105.5
115.2
Note: Assumed level of ethnic attribution for multiple-ancestry persons is: Very low = 0 percent; Low = .2 less than medium assumption; Half = 50 percent; Medium = attribution rates estimated from 1990 census data, see Table 3.B4; High = .2 greater than medium assumption; Very high = 100 percent.
Hispanic population is likely to increase in number from 85 to 106 million in 2050.46
These projections imply substantial growth in multiple-ancestry persons, re-
46
The white population has low exogamy rates and attribution rates below 50 percent, resulting in population growth that is less than expected from conventional baseline assumptions. It will reach a maximum about 2020 to 2030 and then decline for all attribution assumptions except the extremely high one. For the plausible range of low to high attribution rates, the white population will range in size from about 195 million to about 208 million in 2050. The black population has relatively low
