. "3 The Face of the U.S. Population in 2050." The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1997.
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TABLE 3.B4 Racial and Ethnic Attribution Rates for Multiple-Ancestry Persons for Racial and Ethnic Groups
Level of Ethnic Attribution
Race/Ethnicity
Very Low
Low
Half
Medium
High
Very High
White
.00
.22
.50
.42
.62
1.00
Asian
.00
.19
.50
.39
.59
1.00
Black
.00
.41
.50
.61
.81
1.00
Hispanic
.00
.44
.50
.64
.84
1.00
Source: Panel estimates from 1990 census microdata.
Appendix 3.C Sensitivity of Population Projection Results
Different assumptions for each component of population change lead to shifts in population size. Using alternative assumptions for immigration, fertility, and mortality—each projected under low and high assumptions—we obtain changes in the projected population size. These variations can be compared with the medium-level projections, assuming medium levels for immigration, fertility, and mortality. Table 3.C1 shows results for these projections.
In the intermediate 10 to 15 year period, different assumptions about immigration and fertility could increase or decrease the population size by 2 to 3 percent (see Table 3.C2). In the long run, by 2050, different mortality assumptions will result in population size differences of 6 to 7 percent. In contrast, the cumulative effects of immigration and fertility are greater. Different immigration assumptions, ranging from low to high, will result in population size differences of 10 percent. Different fertility assumptions will account for differences of 12 to 14 percent. These results are consistent with other studies (Long, 1991) concluding that variability in fertility and immigration outpaces the contribution to long-term population size from mortality, in the U.S. context.
