grants. These figures are not really comparable since our projections refer to educational distributions 30 to 40 years in the future rather than the current levels. Average educational attainment in the U.S. has been rising and it is reasonable to assume that significantly more than 52 percent of the great-grandchildren of nonimmigrants will attain more than a high school education. Indeed, our analysis of the intergenerational educational matrices for the nonimmigrant population indicates a long-run educational distribution in which 72 percent of the population attains more than a high school education.

Appendix 7.B
Net Present Values for Immigrants and Natives, by Scenario

Tables 7.B1 to 7.B3 present data on the net present values for immigrants, by age of arrival and for native-born residents, in the third and later generations, at current ages, for various alternative assumptions.

TABLE 7.B1 Less Than High School Education

 

Immigrant Age at Arrival

Scenario

0

20

21

40

70

Baseline

60

33

7

-141

-166

2% discount

298

228

181

-192

-181

4% discount

-9

-12

-29

-104

-154

6% discount

-43

-27

-36

-59

-133

8% discount

-44

-24

-29

-35

-117

100% taxes

87

52

23

-160

-167

100% benefits

33

15

-8

-123

-166

Balance budget now

51

25

-0

-140

-161

Never balance budget

-56

-109

-129

-164

-167

Never balance budget + welfare reform

-50

-105

-123

-143

-152

Duration 10+ taxes

99

67

37

-119

-166

Duration 5-9 benefits

62

36

9

-142

-166

Welfare reform act

65

38

12

-120

-151

Elderly immigration with zero OASDHI

60

33

7

-141

-73

No emigration 2nd gen

72

50

23

-141

-166

Lower emigration

103

47

14

-174

-189

Lower bilingual education

65

35

8

-143

-168



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