TABLE 3.2 Fertility Estimates for U.S. National Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and Immigrant Generation, 1995-2050

 

Immigrant Generation

Race/Ethnicity

Overall

First

Second

Third+

Total

1.98

 

 

 

White

1.81

1.82

1.82

1.81

Asian

2.33

2.54

2.17

1.80

Black

2.34

2.76

2.53

2.31

Hispanic

2.63

3.23

2.63

2.04

 

Source: Panel estimates based on June 1994 Current Population Survey data and 1994 National Center for Health Statistics birth registration data.

jection shows declining overall total fertility levels for the heavily immigrant-oriented groups, such as Asians and Hispanics.

We used the June 1994 CPS to make fertility estimates for the major racial/ethnic groups for the first, second, and third-plus generations, using the adjustment factor described above (see Table 3.2).

In a number of important ways, our fertility assumptions are not very different from those used by the Census Bureau in their demographic modeling. The overall estimate of the fertility rate of the population, 1.98, is only slightly lower than the 2.02 assumption made for the 1995 Census Bureau's baseline population projection. The new estimate for the white population of 1.81 is also similar to the previous assumption of 1.83. There is little difference in the fertility levels by immigrant generation for the non-Hispanic white population.

The fertility estimate for the black population from the June 1994 CPS is slightly lower than the Census Bureau's projections. Reductions appear as the generations progress, with a decline to 2.3 children per woman by the third and later generations.

The 2.33 fertility estimate for the Asian population is considerably higher than the assumption of 1.92 used in the 1995 Census Bureau projections. We assume different fertility levels for each immigrant generation, with higher fertility for first-generation immigrants and a decline to 1.80 for the third and fourth generations. Fertility rates for Asians three or more generations out are similar to those for the white population.

Fertility estimates in the June 1994 CPS for the Hispanic population appear to be lower than those assumed in the Census Bureau's projections. 11 Moreover,

11  

From the June 1994 CPS special supplement on fertility and from births to Hispanic women reported in 1994 to the National Center for Vital Statistics, we estimate total fertility rates of 3.23 for foreign-born women and 2.31 for native-born women, yielding an overall total fertility rate of 2.63.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement