Figure 3.2

Exogamy assumptions for national population projections.

Italian, so that Norwegian ancestry is not represented; or each may claim one of the ancestries. Each may also report herself as of multipleancestry. These real-life possibilities suggest the importance of assumptions about exogamy.

Conventional population projections assume that persons of different major racial/ethnic groups do not have children together and that all children will be of the same racial/ethnic identity as their parents. We address changes in the racial/ ethnic identification in two ways in this chapter. First, we take into account the possibility that children may be born to exogamous unions—to parents of different racial/ethnic identification. Second, we take into account that children of multiple-ancestries may report ancestries different from the ones their mothers report. How they report matters for population analysis and also complicates it.

Using 1990 census data, we estimate intermarriage rates by nativity (that is, for the foreign-born and the native-born) and by racial/ethnic ancestry (see Appendix 3.B: Table 3.B2). If those who themselves are the offspring of an intermarriage are more likely to enter into an interracial or Hispanic/non-Hispanic marriage, intermarriage estimates using data for all persons would be an overestimate for single race/ethnicity persons.

Figure 3.2 presents exogamy rates for racial/ethnic groups based on the data described above.15 Nativity influences intermarriage in racial/ethnic groups. In


To calculate exogamy rates for single-ancestry persons, we assume that the ratio of single-ancestry to overall intermarriage rates provides an estimate for adjusting the overall exogamy rates, sepa

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