Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page R1
--> NRL STRATEGIC SERIES Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Panel on Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Naval Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997
OCR for page R2
--> NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for this report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work was performed under Department of Navy Contract N00014-93-C-0089 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do. Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copies available from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America
OCR for page R3
--> PANEL ON COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Ruth M. Davis, Pymatuning Group, Inc., Chair Walter R. Beam, Alexandria, Virginia George Cybenko, Dartmouth College Steven K. Feiner, Columbia University W. Michael McCracken, Georgia Institute of Technology Brian P. McCune, McCune & Associates Raj Reddy, Carnegie Mellon University Victor Vyssotsky, Digital Equipment Corporation Navy Liaison Representatives Paul G. Blatch, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (N911T1) Ronald N. Kostoff, Office of Naval Research Consultant Sidney G. Reed, Jr.
OCR for page R4
--> NAVAL STUDIES BOARD David R. Heebner, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Chair George M. Whitesides, Harvard University, Vice Chair Albert J. Baciocco, Jr., The Baciocco Group, Inc. Alan Berman, Center for Naval Analyses Norman E. Betaque, Logistics Management Institute Norval L. Broome, Mitre Corporation Gerald A. Cann, Raytheon Company Seymour J. Deitchman, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired) Anthony J. DeMaria, DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc. John F. Egan, Lockheed Martin Corporation Robert Hummel, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University David W. McCall, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired) Robert J. Murray, Center for Naval Analyses Robert B. Oakley, National Defense University William J. Phillips, Northstar Associates Mara G. Prentiss, Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University Herbert Rabin, University of Maryland Julie JCH Ryan, Booz, Allen and Hamilton Harrison Shull, Naval Postgraduate School (retired) Keith A. Smith, U.S. Marine Corps (retired) Robert C. Spindel, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington David L. Stanford, Science Applications International Corporation H. Gregory Tornatore, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University J. Pace VanDevender, Prosperity Institute Vincent Vitto, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Bruce Wald, Arlington Education Consultants Navy Liaison Representatives Paul G. Blatch, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (N911T1) Ronald N. Kostoff, Office of Naval Research Staff Ronald D. Taylor, Director Peter W. Rooney, Program Officer Susan G. Campbell, Administrative Assistant Mary (Dixie) Gordon, Information Officer Christopher A. Hanna, Project Assistant
OCR for page R5
--> COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS Robert J. Hermann, United Technologies Corporation, Co-Chair W. Carl Lineberger, University of Colorado, Co-Chair Peter M. Banks, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan Lawrence D. Brown, University of Pennsylvania Ronald G. Douglas, Texas A&M University John E. Estes, University of California at Santa Barbara L. Louis Hegedus, Elf Atochem North America, Inc. John E. Hopcroft, Cornell University Rhonda J. Hughes, Bryn Mawr College Shirley A. Jackson, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Kenneth H. Keller, University of Minnesota Kenneth I. Kellermann, National Radio Astronomy Observatory Margaret G. Kivelson, University of California at Los Angeles Daniel Kleppner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology John Kreick, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company Marsha I. Lester, University of Pennsylvania Thomas A. Prince, California Institute of Technology Nicholas P. Samios, Brookhaven National Laboratory L.E. Scriven, University of Minnesota Shmuel Winograd, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center Charles A. Zraket, Mitre Corporation (retired) Norman Metzger, Executive Director
OCR for page R6
This page in the original is blank.
OCR for page R7
--> Preface The Panel on Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence was established in early 1992 by the Naval Studies Board (NSB) of the National Research Council in response to a request from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). The NRL called on the NSB to establish a panel of experts in the fields of computer science and artificial intelligence to interact informally with the laboratory's research staff regarding plans, facilities, capabilities, prospects, and problems faced by the represented communities (government, academia, and industry) and to address the tasks contained in the formal terms of reference. Those tasks delineated the following priority topics: Software production. Provide a critical examination of the scientific issues that could be pursued (as opposed to commercial developments that are likely to evolve without fundamental R&D activities). Adaptive software (machine learning). What opportunities are envisioned in this area? Interface technology. What are the scientific issues that are to be examined over the next decade and which hold the potential for providing an improved base for sound developments in this field? What centers of activity worldwide are currently active leaders in such activities? Speech synthesis/recognition. What fundamental pursuits are likely to lead to further principles in this field (as opposed to commercial developments, which will indeed provide more sophisticated systems under many conditions)? Neural networks. Which scientific pursuits are required to place the behavior of these systems on a firm basis? Where are the leadership roles associated with this set of issues? Facilities. What facilities are the highest priority to emphasize in furthering the unique strengths that a government laboratory brings to this field? Which facilities are most appropriate at a university? In addition, communications between Timothy Coffey, Director of Research at the Naval Research Laboratory, and the panel's chair, Ruth M. Davis, provided further clarification concerning the terms of reference and the objectives of the panel: The panel was to provide an outside perspective on key scientific and technical topics and to highlight technical opportunities for NRL. In particular, the panel was asked for such perspectives in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and human-computer interface (HCI). The panel was also requested to assess industrial interest in recommended opportunity areas. The panel was not asked to conduct a critical review of NRL's current research program in computer science and AI/HCI and did not do so. The panel performed its task in the course of four meetings: March 26-27, 1992, at which discussions were held with Timothy Coffey and presentations were made by NRL's Information Technology Division and Human-Computer Interface Laboratory; June 24-25 and September 28-29, 1992, at which presentations were made by government and academic experts on computer science and AI research programs; and October 21-22, 1992, which included further discussions with Timothy Coffey. NRL has a considerable investment in computer science and is a node of the U.S. High Performance Computing Consortium. Its AI research laboratory was established some 20 years ago and is the only government laboratory of its kind.
OCR for page R8
This page in the original is blank.
OCR for page R9
--> Contents Chapter 1- Introduction 1 Content 1 Selected Definitions 1 Grand Challenge Areas 2 Chapter 2- Artificial Intelligence and Human-Computer Interface 4 Importance of AI and HCI to the Department of Defense 4 Types of Investment Required for AI and HCI 4 General Recommendations Regarding AI and HCI 5 Chapter 3- Grand Challenge Areas 7 Representation and Modeling of Complex Systems 7 Collaborative Problem Solving 8 Machine Learning and Adaptive Systems 11 Reasoning Under Uncertainty 12 Virtual Worlds (Reality) 15 Neurophysiological Models of Cognition 17 Industrial Interest in Grand Challenge Areas 18
OCR for page R10
This page in the original is blank.