Reducing the Costs of Space Science Research Missions

Proceedings of a Workshop

Joint Committee on Technology for Space Science and Applications of the

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and the

Space Studies Board

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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--> Reducing the Costs of Space Science Research Missions Proceedings of a Workshop Joint Committee on Technology for Space Science and Applications of the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and the Space Studies Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.1997

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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by Contracts NASW-4938, NASW-4627, and NASW-96013 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-05829-5 Available in limited supply from: Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 (202) 334-2855 Space Studies Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 (202) 334-3477 Additional copies of this book are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 1-800-624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cover: Photograph of Globular Cluster G1 in Galaxy M31 taken by the Hubble Space Telescope in July 1994. Courtesy of NASA. Printed in the United States of America

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--> JOINT COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR SPACE SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS STEERING COMMITTEE FOR A WORKSHOP TO REDUCE SPACE SCIENCE MISSION COSTS BARBARA C. CORN (co-chair), B.C. Consulting, Inc., Searcy, Arkansas JOHN J. DONEGAN (co-chair), John Donegan Associates, Inc., King George, Virginia JAMES P. BAGIAN, Environmental Protection Agency, Northville, Michigan DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California WILEY J. LARSON, U.S. Air Force Academy and International Space University, Colorado Springs, Colorado MICHAEL MALIN, Malin Space Science Systems, San Diego, California GEORGE SEBESTYEN, CTA Space Systems, McLean, Virginia Aeronautics And Space Engineering Board And Space Studies Board Staff JOANN CLAYTON-TOWNSEND, ASEB Director MARC S. ALLEN, SSB Director ALLISON SANDLIN, Study Director, ASEB (March-December 1996) VICTORIA P. FRIEDENSEN, Study Manager, ASEB LISA D. MAY, Consultant

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--> AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD JOHN D. WARNER (chair), The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington STEVEN AFTERGOOD, Federation of American Scientists, Washington, D.C. GEORGE A. BEKEY, University of Southern California, Los Angeles GUION S. BLUFORD, JR., NYMA, Inc., Brook Park, Ohio RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, Colorado BARBARA C. CORN, BC Consulting, Inc., Searcy, Arkansas STEVEN D. DORFMAN, Hughes Electronics Corporation, Los Angeles, California DONALD C. FRASER, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts DANIEL HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge FREDERICK HAUCK, International Technology Underwriters, Bethesda, Maryland WILLIAM H. HEISER, U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado WILLIAM HOOVER, U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia BENJAMIN HUBERMAN, Huberman Consulting Group, Washington, D.C. BERNARD L. KOFF, Pratt and Whitney, West Palm Beach, Florida FRANK E. MARBLE, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena C. JULIAN MAY, Technical Operations International, Inc., Kennesaw, Georgia GRACE M. ROBERTSON, McDonnell Douglas Corporation (Douglas Aircraft Company), Long Beach, California GEORGE SPRINGER, Stanford University, Stanford, California Staff JOANN CLAYTON-TOWNSEND, Director

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--> SPACE STUDIES BOARD CLAUDE R. CANIZARES (chair), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University, Corvallis JAMES P. BAGIAN, Environmental Protection Agency, Northville, Michigan DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts DONALD E. BROWNLEE, University of Washington, Seattle JOHN J. DONEGAN, John Donegan Associates, Inc., King George, Virginia GERARD W. ELVERUM, JR., TRW Space and Technology Group (retired), Murietta, California ANTHONY W. ENGLAND, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MARTIN E. GLICKSMAN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York RONALD GREELEY, Arizona State University, Tempe BILL GREEN, former member, U.S. House of Representatives, New York ANDREW H. KNOLL, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JANET G. LUHMANN, University of California, Berkeley ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, University Center, Michigan BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire, Durham KENNETH H. NEALSON, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee MARY JANE OSBORN, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington SIMON OSTRACH, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio MORTON B. PANISH, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired), Springfield, New Jersey CARLÉ M. PIETERS, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Tucson JOHN A. SIMPSON, University of Chicago, Illinois ROBERT E. WILLIAMS, Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Maryland Staff MARC S. ALLEN, Director

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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Contents 1   Introduction   1 2   Approach   2 3   Summary of Findings   7     Effect of Policy Mandates,   7     Understanding the National Space Science Mission,   8     Clear Definition of Requirements,   8     Programmatics and Acquisition Strategies,   10     Risk-Informed Decisions,   12     Inclusion of Advanced Technology,   12 4   Concluding Remarks   15 5   References   16     Appendices         A Statement of Task   19     B Participants   20     C Papers Submitted by Opening Session Presenters   22     Remarks on Reducing Space Science Mission Costs, Eberhardt Rechtin   23     Perspectives on Small Spacecraft: Results of a Recent RAND Workshop, Liam P. Sarsfield   30     Influence of Technology on Space Mission Costs, Frank J. Redd   42

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-->     Summary of Techniques for Reducing Space Mission Costs, Wiley J. Larson   48     Mars Exploration Program Strategy: 1995-2020, Donna L. Shirley and Daniel J. McCleese   53     D Summary of Working Group Reports   60     E Selected Bibliography   69

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Tables, Figures, and Box Tables 2-1   Major Points Identified by Working Groups,   4 D-1   Mars Program Infrastructure Candidates,   62 D-2   Cost-Reduction Options,   67 Figures C-1   NASA spending on small spacecraft,   32 C-2   Historical spacecraft mass trends,   33 C-3   The importance of technology in future small missions,   34 C-4   Spacecraft cost per kilogram comparison,   35 C-5   Distribution of TMC cost elements for current small spacecraft,   36 C-6   Mars Exploration Program strategy,   56 D-1   Windstar spacecraft characteristics,   67 Box 2-1   Message from the Chairs,   3

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