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Jar IlUllIf f4.e~_ en ~ fir Mortality Decline and Reproc~uctive Change Mark R. Montgomery and Barney Cohen, Editors Committee on Population Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the Na- tional Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This activity was funded by the Office of Population of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data From death to birth: mortality decline and reproductive change / Mark R. Montgomery and Barney Cohen, editors. p. cm. "Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council." Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-309-05896-1 (pbk.) 1. Mortality. 2. Fertility, Human. I. Montgomery, Mark, 1953 . II. Cohen, Barney, 1959- . III. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Population. HB 1321.F76 1997 304.6'3 dc21 97-33802 From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change is available for sale from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Lock Box 285, Washington, DC 20055. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). Order electronically via Internet at http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION RONALD D. LEE (Chair), Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York JOHN B. CASTERLINE, The Population Council, New York LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California JANE MENKEN, Population Program, University of Colorado, Boulder ROBERT A. MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University MARK R. MONTGOMERY, Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook, and The Population Council, New York W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University ALBERTO PALLONI, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University MARTA TIENDA, Population Research Center, University of Chicago AMY O. TSUI, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill JOHN HAAGA, Director BARNEY COHEN, Program Officer TRISH DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant* LATANYA JOHNSON, Senior Project Assistant JOEL ROSENQUIST, Senior Project Assistant** * through May 1997 ** through June 1997 iii

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CONTRIBUTORS MARTHA AINSWORTH, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. P.N. MARI BHAT, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India BARNEY COHEN, Committee on Population, National Research Council BARTHELEMY KUATE DEFO, Department of Demography, University of Montreal DEON FILMER, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. ELIZABETH FRANKENBERG, RAND, Santa Monica, California PATRICK R. GALLOWAY, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley LAURENCE M. GRUMMER-STRAWN, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia MICHAEL R. HAINES, Department of Economics, Colgate University EUGENE A. HAMMEL, Departments of Anthropology and Demography, University of California, Berkeley RONALD D. LEE, Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley ZUGUO MEI, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia MARK R. MONTGOMERY, Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook, and The Population Council, New York LUIS ROSERO-BIXBY, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, and Institute of Health Research, University of Costa Rica INNOCENT SEMALI, Muhimbili University College of Health Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania PAUL W. STUPP, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia KENNETH I. WOLPIN, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na- tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Preface The Committee on Population was established by the National Research Council in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's mandate is to conduct scientific assessments of major population issues and to provide a forum for discussion and analysis of important public policy issues related to population. The Committee on Population has a long history of activities in world popu- lation issues. In anticipation of the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development in 1994, representatives of national academies of science from around the world met in New Delhi, India, in a "science summit" on World Population. In a joint statement, 58 of the World's scientific academies challenged "scientists, engineers, and health professionals" to "study and provide advice on . . . factors that affect reproductive behavior, family size, and success- ful family planning" (p. l l). In response, the committee has organized a range of different activities designed to increase knowledge of these important demo- graphic variables. In 1994, the committee organized a Panel on Reproductive Health; its report, published in 1997, assesses the state of knowledge of reproduc- tive health problems in developing countries and proposes research and program priorities designed to improve global reproductive health. And, since 1995, the committee has organized a series of workshops to review what is known about the determinants of fertility transition in developing countries. . . vat

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. . . vile PREFACE The papers in this volume were first presented at such a workshop, held in November 1995, which was designed to bring together researchers from a variety of different disciplines to discuss what is known about how changes in infant and child mortality risk affect reproductive outcomes. Given that the balance of mortality and fertility rates determines the rate of population growth, which in turn has important implications for social and economic welfare, it is perhaps surprising that it has been almost 20 years since there has been a systematic examination of these crucial demographic variables. Many demographic changes have occurred over this period. Considerable variability has been recorded in countries' routes to the fertility transition, but the cause of such variation, and particularly the role of government policy towards population and family plan- ning, remains an open question. Casual observation might suggest that a decline in mortality is the most important prerequisite for a decline in fertility, but the research base for this conclusion is surprisingly thin. The Committee on Population thanks all those who helped in this activity from its inception, through the workshop, to the final publication of this volume. Primary organization and planning for the workshop and this report was overseen by committee member Mark Montgomery, aided by several other current and former members, including Caroline Bledsoe, John Casterline, Anne Pebley, and Ron Rindfuss. They were assisted by several members of the committee's staff: the work took place under the general direction of John Haaga, director of the Committee on Population; Trish DeFrisco skillfully handled all administrative duties; Winfield Swanson and Elaine McGarraugh adroitly edited the manu- script; and Trang Ta prepared the final version of the manuscript for publication. Key to all the work was Barney Cohen, who managed the project from its incep- tion to this publication, with intelligence, humor, and, above all, patience. The committee also gratefully acknowledges the United States' Agency for International Development, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for their generous financial support. Finally, we are indebted to all the workshop participants for their willingness to participate and to contribute their special knowledge. Ronald D. Lee, Chair Committee on Population

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Contents Introduction Barney Cohen and Mark R. Montgomery Effect of a Child's Death on Birth Spacing: A Cross-National Analysis Laurence M. Grummer-Strawn, Paul W. Stupp, and Zuguo Mei 39 3 The Impact of Infant and Child Mortality Risk on Fertility 74 Kenneth I. Wolpin Learning and Lags in Mortality Perceptions Mark R. Montgomery The Impact of AIDS Mortality on Individual Fertility: Evidence from Tanzania Martha Ainsworth, Deon Filmer, and Innocent Semali 112 138 6 Infant Mortality and the Fertility Transition: Macro Evidence from Europe and New Findings from Prussia 182 Patrick R. Galloway, Ronald D. Lee, and Eugene A. Hammel 7 The Relationship Between Infant and Child Mortality and Fertility: Some Historical and Contemporary Evidence for the United States Michael R. Haines Six 227

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x 8 Fertility Response to Infant and Child Mortality in Africa with Special Reference to Cameroon Barthe'le'my Kuate Defo 9 The Relationship Between Infant and Child Mortality and Subsequent Fertility in Indonesia: 1971-1991 Elizabeth Frankenberg 10 Micro and Macro Effects of Child Mortality on Fertility: The Case of India P.N. Marl Bhat 11 Child Mortality and the Fertility Transition: Aggregated and Multilevel Evidence from Costa Rica Luis Rosero-Bixby INDEX CONTENTS 254 316 339 384 411

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