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PAPERBACK list:$54.00 Web:$48.60 add to cart Rights & Permissions Free Resources PDF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Display this book on your site! Related Titles The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries: Selected Studies Growing Up Global: The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries Other Related Titles From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change (1998) Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (CBASSE) Web Search Builder Use this book's key terms to search within this book, across our collection, or across the Web. Skim This Chapter Skim this chapter and use this chapter's key terms to search within this book. Reference Finder Paste in your own text to find books that relate to your topic. Page 411   E-mail  Facebook  Digg  Stumble  Twitter More Page 411 Front Matter (R1-R12) 1 Introduction (1-38) 2 Effect of a Child's Death on Birth Spacing: A Cross-National Analysis (39-73) 3 The Impact of Infant and Child Mortality Risk on Fertility (74-111) 4 Learning and Lags in Mortality Perceptions (112-137) 5 The Impact of AIDS Mortality on Individual Fertility: Evidence from Tanzania (138-181) 6 Infant Mortality and the Fertility Transistion: Macro Evidence from Europe and New Findings from Prussia (182-226) 7 The Relationship Between Infant and Child Mortality and Fertility: Some Historical and Contemporary Evidence for the United States (227-253) 8 Fertility Response to Infant and Child Mortality in Africa with Special Reference to Cameroon (254-315) 9 The Relationship Between Infant and Child Mortality and Subsequent Fertility in Indonesia: 1971-1991 (316-338) 10 Micro and Macro Effects of Child Mortality on Fertility: The Case of India (339-383) 11 Child Mortality and the Fertility Transistion: Aggregated and Multilevel Evidence from Costa Rica (384-410) Index (411-426)

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Index A Abortion, 23, 41 AIDS and, 142, 144, 145 sex-selective, China, lO(n.4) spontaneous, 40, 229 Adult mortality, 8 AIDS, 138, 141,142, 143-147,149-150, 151, 154, 156-161, 164-167, 174, 303 Europe, 192 insurance behavior and, 22-23, 79 perceived risks, 8, 10-11, l l5(n.2) sub-Saharan Africa, 138, 141, 142-147, 149-151, 154, 156-161, 164-166, 174 Africa, 18, 254 child death and birth spacing, 42-72 (passim) community-level analysis, 261 AIDS, 151, 155-156, 161, 166-167 family size, country studies, 25, 143- 144, 261, 263, 264, 265, 299- 300, 322, 323 AIDS, 18, 143-144, 149, 164 see also sub-Saharan Africa; specific countries 411 Age factors AIDS and, 144, 145 child's, 10, 45, 53, 79-80, 87-88, 361, 372-374 Costa Rica, 400 family life cycle, 78-110 hazard model methodology, 303- 310 sub-Saharan Africa, 269-270, 274- 275, 298-300 household models, 150 India, 361, 372-374 Indonesia, 320, 329 insurance behavior and, 79 marital, 9, 20, 107, 108, 144 maternal, 11 Africa, country studies, 145, 270, 279-280, 287, 304, 305 developing countries, cross-national analysis, 41, 42, 45, 51 United States, 228, 229, 230, 241, 242, 244 replacement behavior, 244 social learning, 124 United States, 228, 229, 230, 240-242, 244

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412 Aggregate analyses, 2, 4-6, 182, 184 Africa, country studies, 13, 145, 255- 260, 261 Costa Rica, 27, 386, 390-399 Europe, country studies, 187-222 focus of, 316 India, 24, 27, 340 individual-level data vs. 255, 260 infant mortality as child mortality, 186-187 United States, 242-247 see also Cohort data and analyses AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa, 11, 18, 138 177, 303 abortion and, 142, 144, 145 adult mortality, 138, 141, 142, 143 147, 149-150, 151, 154, 156 161, 164-167, 174, 303 age factors, 144, 145 attitudes, 154, 164 birth spacing, 145 breast feeding/lactation interruption, impact on, 40, 142, 144 transmission via, 138, 141 child mortality, 138, 141 - 143, 146, 147-148, 150-151, 154-156, 161, 164-166 coital frequency of HIV carriers, 142, 144 community-level analysis, 151, 155 156, 161, 166-167 contraception and, 142, 144, 145, 303 cost factors, 144 counseling/testing, 18, 144-145 cross-sectional analysis, 150-151 demographics, general, 145, 146, 165 extended family, 144, 149 family size, 18, 143-144, 149, 164 gender factors, 140-141, 161, 164-165, 166 household analysis, 139, 145, 148-161, 166, 173-177 sampling and samples, 146-148, 151-155, 175-176 insurance behavior, 18, 22-23, 142 143, 149 longitudinal studies, 18, 138, 145, 154 INDEX marriage, 144 migration effects, 156 multivariate analysis, 139, 143, 146-165 nutrition, 147, 148 other STDs and, 144 regression analysis, 150-151, 155, 164, 173-177 replacement behavior, 142-143 sampling and samples, 139-140, 142, 143, 146-147, 155 household data, 146-148, 151-155, 175-176 sexual activity of HIV infected, 161, 164-165, 166 coital frequency, 142, 144 transmission routes, 140-141 unwanted fertility, 144, 165 urban/rural residence, 138, 139-142, 145, 146 Anthropometric analyses, United States, 234, 235 Asia, 18-20 child death and birth interval, 42-72 (passim), 301 uncertainty, cultural factors, 127 see also specific countries Attitudes, general, 113, 322 adult mortality, risk perception, 8, 10 11, ll5(n.2) AIDS, Tanzania, 154, 164 family size, 7, 185 individuals' perceptions, bias toward extremes, 122-123 sampling, 125 socioeconomic status and, 113 United States, 8 see also Fatalism; Social learning B Bangladesh, 14, 16, 20 Bayesian learning, 22, 114-121, 126-127, 130-132 Behavioral replacement strategies, see Replacement behavior Belgium, 23, 197, 198

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INDEX Belief structures, see Attitudes, general; Social learning; Uncertainty, decision-making Birth control, see Abortion; Contraception; Family planning Birth order, see Parity factors Birth spacing, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 45, 74, 99, 100,186,300-310 AIDS and, 145 Cameroon, 255, 260, 262-263, 266, 268-271, 277-298 child death and, 26, 39-73, 192, 255, 260, 263, 300, 327-329 coital frequency, 40, 41, 47, 69 contraception, 40-41, 47-48, 69, 384 Demographic and Health Surveys, 39, 42-43, 260 developing countries, 6 contraception, 40-41, 47-48, 69 cross-national analysis, 39-73 differences-in-differences approach, 26 diseases, other than AIDS, 228, 262 263, 276 economic models, 262-263 Europe, country studies, 190, 192 hazard models, 43, 45-76 (passim), 280-285 India, 364, 376 Indonesia, 317, 321, 323, 325, 327-336 Latin America, 42-72 (passim), 301 menstruation and, 40, 46-47, 57-62, 65, 68, 69-72 multivariate analysis, 280-281, 330-334 neonatal mortality, 48, 260, 277-280 postneonatal mortality, 48, 260, 277-280 sexual activity, 40, 43, 46, 62-68 United States, 228, 229, 230 see also Insurance behavior; Lactation 300 interruption; Replacement behavior Birth timing, 43, 74, 99, 333 sub-Saharan Africa, 269-270, 280-298, 303 Bivariate analyses, 6, 126, 330, 386 Costa Rica, 386, 389-399, 400-403 Europe, country studies, 182, 184, l95(n.14), 207 413 Bolivia, 12 Botswana, 13, 15, 17, 51 Brazil, 14, 16 Breastfeeding, 6, 45-46, 72 AIDS, impact on, 142, 144 transmission via, 138, 141 artificial feeding vs. 229 child death and birth interval, developing countries, 40, 43, 45-47, 52-53, 69 duration, 9-10, 40, 43, 45, 69 Europe, country studies, 184, 190, 215 U.S. data, 228, 229, 231 see also Lactation interruption C Cameroon, 15, 17, 25, 254-255, 262, 263, 265-310 birth spacing, 255, 260, 262-263, 266, 268-271, 277-298 cultural factors, 273, 299 Child death, individual, 3 AIDS, caused by, 142, 157 birth spacing, 26, 39-73, 192, 255, 260, 263, 264, 300, 327-329 coital frequency and, 40, 41, 47, 69 family size and, 323 first born, impacts, 25, 264-265, 298 302, 304, 324-325, 332, 333 334, 373, 377 Indonesia, 324-325, 330-336 persistence of effects, 53, 56 social learning and, 117 sub-Saharan Africa, 13, 254, 276-277, see also Insurance behavior; Replacement behavior Child mortality, general, 1-6, 186, 227 228 Africa, 254-310 AIDS, 138, 141-143, 146, 147-148, 150-151, 154-156, 161, 164-166 cross-national studies, 44-72 (passim)

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414 Asia, cross-national studies, 44-72 (passim) Costa Rica, 14, 16, 27-28, 384-408 Europe, country studies, 186-187, 192, 213 fertility and, 11, 74-110, 150 India, 26-27, 339-381 Indonesia, 321-336 infant mortality vs. 85, 186- 187 Latin America, cross-national studies, 44-72 (passim) social learning and perception of, 7, 115(n.2) sustainable development and, 2-3 United States, historical studies, 7-8, 234, 240-247 see also Child death, individual; Infant mortality; Insurance behavior; Prenatal mortality; Replacement behavior China, lO(n.4), 19 Cohort data and analyses advantages, 355 India, 340, 343-344, 350, 355-361, 364-370, 373, 376 Coital frequency abstinence, 23 AIDS-related, 142, 144 postpartum, 40, 43, 47, 62-64, 69, 142, 263, 276 child death and birth spacing, 40, 41, 47, 69 Columbia, 14, 16 Community-level analyses Africa, 261 AIDS, 151, 155-156, 161, 166-167 Costa Rica, 389-407 Europe, 187-215 replacement behavior, 101, 102 Condoms, 144, 303 Contraception, 29, 317, 384 Africa, country studies, 18, 25, 142, 144, 145, 255, 261, 262, 263- 264, 303 AIDS and, 142, 144, 145, 303 birth spacing and, 40-41, 47-48, 69, 384 INDEX Costa Rica, 384, 386, 387, 399-400, 401, 405, 406, 407 developing countries, 40-41, 47-48, 69 economic factors, 128, 343 education and, 273 India, 340, 341, 364, 370-377 Indonesia, 318, 327, 335 replacement/insurance behavior and, 9, 243(n.3), 263, 276, 370-377, 407 social learning/diffusion models, 128 see also Lactation interruption; Sterility and sterilization Costa Rica, 14, 16, 27-29, 385-408 age factors, 400 aggregate analyses, 27, 386, 390-399 bivariate analyses, 386, 389-399, 400 403 community-level analysis, 389-407 contraception, 384, 386, 387, 399-400, 401, 405, 406, 407 cross-sectional analysis, 394, 396 cultural factors, 27, 407-408 demography, 386-387 diseases, 389 education, 387, 400 family planning, 29, 387, 389, 395 396, 400-403, 405-406, 407, 408 family size, 27, 385, 406, 408 health programs/services, 27, 384, 391, 394, 405-406, 408 individual-level analysis, 27, 386, 399 405, 406, 407 insurance behavior, 385, 391, 399, 407-408 lactation interruption, 385 marriage and marital status, 389, 400, 403 marital fertility, 389, 391-396 multivariate analysis, 386, 394-396 replacement behavior, 385, 407-408 sampling, 389-390, 399-400 sexual activity, 400 social learning, 387, 395, 403, 405-406 socioeconomic status, 387, 391, 394, 395, 399, 400, 401, 403, 407

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INDEX standard of living, 389, 407 time-series analysis, 391-395 urban/rural residence, 386, 387, 400 Cost factors, 8, 342, 385 AIDS, 144 birth/rearing costs, 10, 75-78, 81, 88, 89, 107, 117, 149, 389 contraception, 343 diffusion models, 128 household models, 148-149, 150 social learning, 117, 128, 130 Country studies, see specific countries and regions Cox regression coefficients, 397-398 Cross-national analyses, 3, 12, 27 developing countries, 39-73 Europe, 182-226 Cross-sectional analyses, 102, 254 Africa, 255-260 AIDS, 150-151 Costa Rica, 394, 396 Europe, 182, 183, 189, 191, 208-215 India, 340, 350-364 United States, 238, 247 Cultural factors, 9, 127, 183, 275 breastfeeding, 69, 263 Cameroon, 273, 299 Costa Rica, 27, 407-408 fatalism, 5, 7, 260-261, 299, 322, 384 first born, 25, 264-265, 275 India, 26-27, 347-348(n.1) Middle East, 21 see also Cross-national analyses; Ethnicity; Religion; Social learning Czechoslovakia, 195-196(n.14) D Demographic and Health Surveys, 2, 21, 39, 42-43, 260 Demographic factors, general, viii, 1-3, 4- 5, 7, 28 AIDS, 145, 146, 165 Costa Rica, 386-387 developing countries, 25-27 415 Indonesia, 317-319, 321 see also Age factors; Aggregate analyses; Education and training; Employment and occupational status; Ethnicity; Gender factors; Life expectancy; Literacy level; Marriage and marital status; Socioeconomic status; Urban as rural residence Demographic transition theory, classic, 1, 6, 7, 74, 112, 183-184, 227, 254, 255, 316, 339, 385 Europe, 23, 138 social learning and, 128 United States, 229-240 Developing countries, general, 1, 3, 4, 5- 6,9, 12,25,28,39-73,384 age,maternal,41,42, 45, 51 aggregate data, focus of, 316 birth spacing, 6, 39-73 contraception and, 40-41, 47-48, 69 breastfeeding, 40, 43, 45, 47, 52-53, 69 cross-national analysis samples, 42-43 demographic factors, general, 25-27 education, national curricula, 129 estimation issues, general, 11 health and family planning programs, 3, 25, 384 lactation interruption, 5-6, 40, 43, 47, 57-58, 69, 72, 275 menstruation, 40, 46-47, 57-62, 65, 68, 69-72, 105-106 parity factors, 25, 317 replacement effects, 5-6, 24 social learning, 112- 130 socioeconomic status, 25, 41, 42, 45 see also specific countries and regions Diffusion effects, see Social learning Diffusion models, 29, 128, 395-396 Diseases and disorders, 185, 190, 385 birth spacing and, 228, 262-263, 276 Costa Rica, 389 school-age morbidity, 10 STDs, other than AIDS, 144 United States, 228, 234, 385 see also AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa Divorce, 9, 193

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416 East Asia, 19 Esee also specific countries Economic factors and models, 2, 22, 41, 42, 45, 75-110, 339 AIDS, 144 birth spacing, 262-263 contraception, 128 diffusion models, 128 East Asia, 19 family planning as health programs, 261-262 fertility, general, 5, 148 India, 342, 362 Indonesia, 317 optimization models, 75-76, 82, 90, 96, 97 Southeast Asia, 19 standard analysis, inadequacy, 7 sub-Saharan Africa, 148-151, 287 utility maximization models, 76-77, 80-88, 114-115 see also Cost factors; Employment and occupational status; Hazard models; Household data and models; Human capital investment; Insurance behavior; Ethnicity Replacement behavior; Socioeconomic status Education and training AIDS, household model, 174 contraception, 273 Costa Rica, 387, 400 developing countries, national curricula, 129 Europe, country studies, 203, 206, 209 Indonesia, 317 Malaysia, 19-20 mass media, 122, 129, 209 mortality risk, perception of, 113, 322 Philippines, 19-20 replacement behavior and, 105 school-age morbidity, human capital aspects, 10 social as formal learning, 113, 117, 124-125, 128-129 INDEX temporal order of information, 124-125 United States, 129 women, 9, 19-20, 41, 42, 45, 51, 272- 273, 279, 283, 384, 387, 400 see also Bayesian learning; Literacy level; Social learning Emigration, see Migration Employment and occupational status Africa, country studies, 273-274, 283 Europe, country studies, 193, 197, 200, 203-207 England and Wales, 23, 127, 196(n.14), 197, 198, 200-203 Estimation issues, 11, 88-99, 190-195, 303, 343-346 approximate decision rules, 105-106 birth/death history data, 99- 103 birth/death totals, 103- 105 developing countries, general, 11 population-invariant mortality risk, 88- 95 population-variant mortality risk, 95-99 structural/non-structural, 90, 107-109, 353, 359 two-stage techniques, 24 see also Hazard models; Reverse causality statistics Africa, 273, 283 Germany, 203, 206 Malaysia, 20 Middle East, 21 United States, 229-231, 232, 235, 241- 242, 244, 245 Europe, country studies, 24, 182, 190, 195-215, 227 adult mortality, 192 aggregate analysis, 187-222 birth spacing, 190, 192 bivariate analyses, 182, 184, l95(n.14), 207 breastfeeding, 184, 190, 215 community-level analysis, 187-215 cross-sectional analysis, 182, 183, 189, 191, 208-215 demographic transition theory, classic, 23, 138

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INDEX education, 203, 206, 209 employment, 193, 197, 200, 203-207 gender factors, 186, 192, 203 health programs/services, 192, 193, 215 insurance behavior, 210-213 lactation interruption, 190, 195, 210, 212-213, 214, 215 life expectancy, 201-203 literacy, 197, 204-207 marital fertility, 191, 193-215 migration, 197, 207 multivariate analyses, 186-187, 195-207 nutrition, 192, 215 religion, 193, 203, 204, 206, 207 replacement behavior, 210-213 sampling and samples, 191, 197, 207 social learning, 209 standard of living, 183, 192 time-series analyses, 188, 191, 196(n.14), 215 urban/rural residence, 196, 197, 198, 200, 201, 203-206, 209 see also specific countries Extended family, impacts of AIDS on, 144, 149 F Family members, surviving, 82, 87, 115- 117, 143, 325-327, 332, 333, 335 Family planning, vii, 9, 331 Costa Rica, 29, 387, 389, 395-396, 400-403, 405-406, 407, 408 developing countries, health programs and, 3, 25, 384, 261-262, 405- 406 East Asia, government role, 19 economic factors, 261-262 fatalism vs,5,7, 260-261, 299, 322, 384 government role, 19, 20, 26, 408 health programs vs,3, 261-262,405-406 India, 27, 340, 356, 362 Indonesia, 26, 318 Latin America, 13 research needs, 29 417 sub-Saharan Africa, 13 sustainable development and, 3, 26 see also Abortion; Contraception; Insurance behavior; Replacement behavior Family size, vii, 8, 317, 345, 346, 385, 408 Africa, country studies, 25, 143-144, 261, 263, 264, 265, 299-300, 322, 323 AIDS, 18, 143-144, 149, 164 child death and birth spacing, 45 Costa Rica, 27, 385, 406, 408 India, 340, 343, 345, 355-364, 366- 370, 376-377 Indonesia, 321-324, 327, 330, 331, 335 Malaysia, 20 parental attitudes, 7, 185 replacement behavior, 102, 261, 271, 340, 343, 355-361, 362-364, 366 United States, 240, 241, 242 see also Family planning Fatalism, 5, 7, 260-261, 299, 322, 384 Fertility, general, vii, 3, 4, 27 AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa, 22-23, 142- 167 country/region studies, 12-21, 39-72 developing countries, general, 3, 4, 9 Europe, country studies, 24, 182, 195- 215 Indonesia, 317-336 India, 339-378 infant/child mortality risk and, 74-110 learning and perception of, 7, 112- 134, 322 marital fertility, Costa Rica, 389, 391-396 Europe, 191, l95(n.11), 193-215 Latin America, 12-13 mortality and, Africa, 13, 18 Asia, 18-20 Latin America, 12-13 Middle East, 20-21 preferences, 8-9, 133-134 Prussia, 24, 187-195, 202, 206

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418 sub-Saharan Africa, 13, 18 United States, 227-253 see also Demographic transition theory, classic; Individual fertility, AIDS and; Lactation interruption; Sterility and sterilization; Unintended fertility; Unwanted fertility; specific countries Finland, 196(n.14) Fixed-effects models, 26, 189, 190, 206, 208, 214-215, 353, 355, 359- 361 Focus groups, 27, 113, 405, 406 France, 101-102, 106, 198, 203 G Gender factors Africa, 8, 41-42, 45, 274, 286 AIDS, HIV prevalence, 140-141 response to death from, 161, 164-165, 166 children, 8, 41-42, 45, 274, 286, 333- 334, 340, 368-373 China, sex-selective abortion, lO(n.4) Europe, 186, 192, 203 India, 340, 362, 368-373, 377 Indonesia, 333-334 Genetic factors, 276 Geographic factors, see specific countries and regions Germany, 23, 101, 102, 187, 196(n.14), 202, 203-204, 206, 209, 211- 213 ethnicity, 203, 206 see also Prussia Ghana, 115-119 Government role, see Public sector role Great Britain, 196(n.14) see also England and Wales INDEX H Haiti, 12 Hausman test, 332, 334 Hazard models, 2, 21, 106 birth spacing, 43, 45-76 (passim), 280- 285 family life cycle, 303-310 reduced-form birth process, 25, 266- 270, 280-310 Health programs and services, 8, 91, 192, 243, 331, 384, 408 AIDS counseling/testing in Africa, 18, 144-145 Costa Rica, 27, 384, 391, 394, 405 406, 408 costs, 262 developing countries, general, 3, 25, 384 economic factors, 261-262 Europe, 192, 193, 215 family planning vs. 3, 261-262, 405 406 Indonesia, 317, 318, 330, 331, 335 Latin America, 12 sanitation conditions, 192, 193 social learning, 125-126, 129 sustainable development and, 2-3 Historical data and studies, 2, 92, 101- 102, 106 Europe, 186-222, 227 United States, 7-8, 24, 129, 227-253 see also Longitudinal studies; Time- series analyses Hoarding behavior, see Insurance behavior Household data and models, 340, 386, 400 age factors, 150 AIDS, 139, 145, 148-161, 166, 173- 177 Human capital investment, 2, 10-11, 79, 185, 262 AIDS and family size, 18, 143- 144, 149, 164 see also Insurance behavior; Replacement behavior

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INDEX I Illiteracy, see Literacy level India, 14, 16, 20, 26-27, 339-381 age factors, 361, 372-374 aggregate analysis, 24, 27, 340 birth spacing, 364, 376 cohort analysis, 340, 343-344, 350, 355-361, 364-370, 373, 376 contraception, 340, 341, 364, 370-377 cross-sectional analysis, 340, 350-364 cultural factors, 26-27, 347-348(n.1) family planning, 27, 340, 356, 362 family size, 340, 343, 345, 355-364, 366-370, 376-377 gender factors, 340, 362, 368-373, 377 insurance behavior, 27, 340-381 replacement behavior and, 355, 367-368, 377-378 lactation interruption, 359, 366, 373 literacy, 351-353 parity factors, 364, 373, 376, 377 first born, 373, 377 religion, 362 replacement behavior, 27, 340-381 insurance behavior and, 355, 367 368, 377-378 samples and sampling, 341, 344, 355 sterility and sterilization, 27, 340, 356, 371, 372, 373, 376-377 time-series analyses, 350-353, 356, 359, 361 unwanted fertility, 342, 343, 356, 359, 378 Individual fertility, AIDS and, 138- 181 see also Insurance behavior; Replacement behavior Individual-level analyses, 2, 3, 5-8, 25, 28-29, 186, 254-255, 260, 316, 364 Africa, 13, 138- 181, 254-262, 265-310 Costa Rica, 27, 386, 399-405, 406, 407 India, 340, 341, 364-377 insurance and replacement effects, 5-6, 11, 22-23, 242-243, 264-337 mortality risk and fertility behavior, 74-110 419 problems with, 11 United States, 240, 242-243 Indonesia, 15, 17, 26, 317-336 age factors, 320, 329 birth spacing, 317, 321, 323, 325, 327 336 child death, individual, 324-325, 330 336 contraception, 318, 327, 335 demography, general, 317-319, 321 education, 317 family planning, 26, 318 family size, 321-324,327,330, 331, 335 gender factors, 333-334 health programs/services. 330, 331, 335 lactation interruption, 321-322, 327 328, 329, 335-336 life expectancy, 318 literacy, 317 multivariate analysis, 330-334 neonatal mortality, 321 parity factors, 323-327, 329-330, 332 334, 335 first born, 324-325, 332, 333-334, 335 postneonatal mortality, 321 replacement behavior, 327-330 samples and sampling, 319-321 socioeconomic status, 317 time-series analysis, 323-330 Infant mortality, 1-2, 27, 227-228, 254 AIDS impacts in Africa, 141-143, 146- 181 breastfeeding, 195 child mortality vs. 186- 187 fertility and, Africa, 25, 39-74 (passim), 138- 181, 254-315 Asia, 18-20 Europe, 24, 182, 186-215 Indonesia, 26, 317-336 Prussia, 24, 187-195, 202, 206, 209, 211 risk, general, 11, 74- 110 learning and perception of, 112- 134, 322 ~ 317, 318,

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420 United States, 228-253 see also Child mortality, general; Neonatal mortality; Postneonatal mortality; Prenatal mortality Insurance behavior, 2, 3, 4-5, 6, 9, 22-23, 28, 75, 77-79, 87, 261, 269, 277, 299, 339-340, 385 adult mortality and, 22-23, 79 AIDS and, 18, 22-23, 142-143, 149 contraception and/or replacement behavior, 9, 243(n.3), 263, 276, 370-377, 407 Costa Rica, 385, 391, 399, 407-408 Europe, country studies, 210-213 India, 27, 340-381 replacement behavior and, 355, 367-368, 377-378 micro-level analyses, 11, 22-23, 264- 377 replacement behavior and, 9-10, 22-23, 27, 78-79, 91(n.18), 108(n.28), 316-317, 340, 341-344 Africa, 261, 268-269 Costa Rica, 408 India, 355, 367-368, 377-378 United States, 244 research needs, 4-5, 28-29 social learning, 28-29 United States, 242, 244-247, 250 Italy, 198, 202, 204, 206 K Kenya, 13, 15, 17, 56, 260, 261 L Lactation interruption, 2-6 (passim), 21 22, 28, 99, 101, 184, 186, 190, 243(n.3) Africa, 263, 271-272, 275, 282, 299, 301 AIDS and, 40, 142, 144 Costa Rica, 385 INDEX developing countries, cross-national studies, 5-6, 40, 43, 47, 57-58, 69, 72, 275 Europe, country studies, 190, 195, 210, 212-213, 214, 215 India, 359, 366, 373 Indonesia, 321-322, 327-328, 329, 335-336 Latin America, 13, 385 research recommendations, 4 Latin America, 12-13 child death and birth spacing, 42-72 (passim), 301 see also specific countries Least-squares estimation, 94, 189, 190- 193, 203, 207-208, 214, 244, 246, 345-370 Lesotho, 260 Life-cycle models, 78-110 hazard model methodology, 303-310 sub-Saharan Africa, 269-270, 274- 275, 298-300 Life expectancy, 5, 28 Europe, 201-203 fertility vs. 5, 12, 20, 82, 138 Indonesia, 318 Latin America, 12 Malaysia, 20 United States, 232-233, 234, 235 Literacy level, 5(n.2), 20(n.10), 346 economic models and, 22 Europe, country studies, 197, 204-207 India, 351-353 Indonesia, 317 social learning, 112, 130 Living standard, see Standard of living Longitudinal studies, 24, 92, 184, 190-215 Asia, 18-20 Latin America, 12-13 Middle East, 20-21 sub-Saharan Africa, 13, 150-151 AIDS, 18, 138, 145, 154 United States, 7-8, 24, 227-253 see also Time-series analyses

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INDEX M Macro-analysis, see Aggregate analyses; Longitudinal studies; Time- series analyses Malaysia, 15, 17, 20, 107, 109 education, 19-20 ethnicity, 20 life expectancy, 20 Malthusian theory, 183, 227 Marriage and marital status, 2, 184, 186 age at marriage, 9, 20, 107, 108, 144 AIDS and, 144 Cameroon, 265-266, 274 Costa Rica, 389, 400, 403 marital fertility, 389, 391-396 divorce, 9, 193 duration of, 240, 241, 242, 262 marital fertility, Costa Rica, 389, 391-396 Europe, 191, 193-215 Latin America, 12-13 remarriage, 9, 184 United States, 240, 241, 242 Massachusetts, 231, 234, 238, 247-249 Mass media, 122, 129, 209 Medical care, see Health programs and services Memory theory, 121 Menstruation, 105-106 birth spacing, 40, 46-47, 57-62, 65, 68, 69-72 see also Lactation interruption Mexico, 12, 14, 16 Micro-level analysis, see Individual-level analyses Middle East, 40-year trends, 20-21 see also specific countries Migration, 183 Europe, country studies, 197, 207 Latin America, 12 sub-Saharan Africa, AIDS, 156 United States, 229, 238, 246 Models and modeling diffusion models, 29, 128, 395-396 421 fixed-effects models, 26, 189, 190, 206, 208, 214-215, 353, 355, 359-361 mortality-fertility, general, 1-2 optimization models, 75-76, 82, 90, 96, 97 sequential decision-making models, 76, 78-110 static, 74, 75-78 target fertility model, 75-76 utility maximization models, 76-78, 80-88, 90, 108, 114-115 see also Economic factors and models; Hazard models; Household data and models; Life-cycle models Mortality, general AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 22-23, 141-142, 145-147, 151-154 child health programs and, 2-3 developing countries, cross-national analysis, 39-73 fertility and, 1-4, 24, 183, 227, 316 317; see also Insurance behavior; Replacement behavior historical evidence, 23-24 Indonesia, 318, 319-320 Latin America, 12-13 learning and perception of, 112- 134 sub-Saharan Africa, 13, 18, 22-23, 141-142, 145-147, 151-154 United States, historical studies, 7-8, 232-234, 242-243 see also Adult mortality; Child mortality, general; Demographic transition theory, classic; Infant mortality; Life expectancy Multilevel analysis, 2, 385-386, 399-405 Multistate duration analysis, 25, 43 Multivariate analysis, 6, 182, 184- 186 AIDS, 139, 143, 146-165 birth spacing, 280-281, 330-334 Costa Rica, 386, 394-396 Europe, country studies, 186-187, 195 207 Indonesia, 330-334

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422 N National trends, see Cross-national analyses; specific countries and regions Neonatal mortality birth spacing and, 48, 260, 277-280 Indonesia, 321 Nepal, 20 Netherlands, l95(n.13), 198, 202, 204, 207 Nigeria, 113, 143 Nonparametric analysis, 287 replacement behavior, 96-98, 102, 276, 309 Number of children, see Family size Nuptuality, see Marriage and marital status Nutrition, 275, 276 AIDS mortality, 147, 148 Europe, country studies, 192, 215 o Occupational status, see Employment and occupational status Optimization models, 75-76, 82, 90, 96, 97 Orphans, 144, 149 Ovulation, see Lactation interruption; Menstruation p Pakistan, 14, 16, 20 Parity factors, 11, 41, 42, 51, 102, 276- 310, 322-323, 332, 364, 376 Africa, sub-Saharan, 255, 261, 263- 265, 269-272, 280-302, 304 birth control and, 9, 29 developing countries, 25, 317 first born, 25, 87, 88-89, 102, 304, 324-325, 332, 333-334, 373, 377 Africa, sub-Saharan, 264-265, 283, 290, 298-302, 304 INDEX India, 373, 377 Indonesia, 324-325, 333-334, 335 India, 364, 373, 376, 377 Indonesia, 323-327, 329-330, 332-334, 335 replacement behavior, 28, 100, 263, 271-272, 280-298 United States, 229, 240-242 see also Birth spacing; Birth timing; Family size Philippines, 15, 17, 19-20 Political factors, see Public sector role Postneonatal mortality birth spacing and, 48, 260, 277-280 Indonesia, 321 Population growth, 183, 227 country trends, 12, 16-17, 238 Population-invariant mortality risk, 88-96 Portugal, 198, 204 Postpartum coital abstinence, 40, 43, 47, 62-64, 69, 263, 276 AIDS and, 142 Prenatal mortality, 40, 229 see also Abortion Private sector role, Costa Rica, contraceptives, 387 Prussia, 24, 182-183, 186-195, 202, 206, 208, 209, 211-214 Public sector role Costa Rica, 387, 396 developing countries, general, 25 East Asia, 19 family planning, 19, 20, 26, 408 Indonesia, 26, 318 Philippines, 20 sanitation infrastructure, 192, 193 Q Qualitative analysis, 262 focus groups, 27, 113, 405, 406 United States, diaries, 7-8

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INDEX R Regression analysis, 5 Africa, AIDS, 150-151, 155, 164, 173-177 country studies on replacement behavior, 261, 263, 266, 268, 271-277, 280-298 AIDS, fertility/sexual activity, 164, 173-177 Costa Rican data on marital fertility. 386, 394-395, 397-399, 403 European data on marital fertility, 191, 193-214 family cycle models, 92-94, 97, 98, 102 Indian data on replacement/insurance behavior, 353-356, 362, 364, 371-376 replacement behavior, 93-94, 97-98, 261, 263, 266, 268, 271-277, 280-298, 353-356, 362, 364, 371-376 U.S. data, 240-242, 243, 245, 246 see also Least-squares estimation Religion Africa, sub-Saharan, 273, 279, 286, 299-300 Europe, 193, 203, 204, 206, 207 India, 362 Latin America, 12 Malaysia, 20 Middle East, 21 Philippines, 20 Remarriage, 9, 184 Replacement behavior, 2, 3, 4, 8-9, 28, 75, 184, 185, 339 Africa, sub-Saharan, 254, 261, 263, 266, 268, 271-277, 280-310 AIDS, 142-143 age factors, 244 Asia, 301 community-level analysis, 101, 102 contraception and/or insurance behavior, 9, 243(n.3), 263, 276, 370-377, 407 423 Costa Rica, 385, 407-408 developing countries, general, 5-6, 24 Europe, country studies, 210-213 family cycle models, 91- 110 family size, 102, 261, 271, 340, 343, 355-361, 362-364, 366 India, 27, 340-381 Indonesia, 327-330 insurance behavior and, 9-10, 22-23, 27, 78-79, 91, 108(n.28), 261, 316-317, 340, 341-344 Africa, 261, 268-269 Costa Rica, 408 India, 355, 367-368, 377-378 United States, 244 Latin America, 301, 408 micro-level data, 5-6, 11, 22-23, 242 243, 264-337 nonparametric analysis, 96-98, 102, 276, 309 parity factors, 28, 100, 263, 271-272, 280-298 regression analysis, 93-94, 97-98, 261, 263, 266, 268, 271-277, 280 298, 353-356, 362, 364, 371 376 research needs, 4 reverse causality, 99, 246, 345 stochastic processes, 92-93, 95, 105 106, 107, 345 social learning and, 120 United States, 24, 227-253 Research needs demographic approaches, 8 economic models, 6 Europe, data quality, 207 family planning, 29 insurance behavior, 4-5, 28-29 lactation interruption, 4 recent research, 2, 5-6 replacement behavior, 4 social learning, 130 transition/confidence effect, 28 see also Statistical studies and methodologies

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424 Retrospective data, see Historical data and studies Reverse causality, statistics, 11, 189, 194, 214, 227-228, 327, 345 AIDS, 143, 145-146, 173-174 replacement behavior, 99, 246, 345 Rural residence, see Urban as rural residence Russia, 198, 204 Rwanda, 146 S Sampling and samples, 89, 109, 332 AIDS, in Africa, 139-140, 142, 143, 146-147, 155 household data, 146-148, 151-155, 175-176 Africa, available data sources/studies, 255-259, 265-266, 268 Costa Rica, 389-390, 399-400 developing countries, cross-national analysis, 42-43 European data, 191, 197, 207 India, 341, 344, 355 individuals' perceptions, bias toward extremes, 122-123 size and probability, 125 Indonesia, 319-321 social learning, 119, 122 statistical portraits and, 122 United States, 240 vital statistics, 231-232, 234-235, 246 see also Demographic and Health Surveys; Micro-level analysis; Stochastic processes S. anitation infrastructure, 192, 193 Senegal, 15, 17, 18 Sequential decision-making models, 76, 78- 110 Sex differences, see Gender factors Sexual activity, 46 AIDS and, 142, 144, 161, 164-165, 166 child death and birth spacing, 40, 43, 46, 62-68 INDEX Costa Rica, 400 postpartum abstinence, 40, 43, 47, 62- 64, 69, 263, 276 see also Coital frequency Sexually transmitted diseases AIDS, relation to other, 144 Simultaneous equation bias, 28 Singapore, l9(n.8) Social learning, 29, 92, 99, 112- 134, 301 - 302 child death, individual, 117 contraception, 128 Costa Rica, 387, 395, 403, 405-406 defined, 114 diffusion models, 29, 128, 395-396 Europe, country studies, 209 health programs/services, 125-126, 129 insurance effect, 28-29 literacy and, 112, 130 negative events, bias toward, 122-124 "null" event, child survival as, 121 order of information received, 124-125 social network size, 119 Societal-level effects, see Aggregate analyses; Demographic factors, general Socioeconomic status, 2, 5, 22, 190, 215, 261 Bangladesh, 20 Costa Rica, 387, 391, 394, 395, 399, 400, 401, 403, 407 developing countries, general, 25, 41, 42, 45 East Asia, 19 Indonesia, 317 Latin America, 12-13 mortality risk, perception of, 113 Philippines, 20 Southeast Asia, 19 see also Standard of living South Korea, 19 Spain, 200, 205 Sri Lanka, 14, 16, 20 Standard of living Costa Rica, 389, 407 Europe, 183, 192

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INDEX Latin America, 12 Middle East, 21 Statistical studies and methodologies, see Estimation issues; Sampling and samples; specific methodologies Sterility and sterilization, 9, 29, 106, 277 AIDS and, 144 India, 27, 340, 356, 371, 372, 373, 376-377 postpartum, 69, 212, 276, 277; see also Lactation interruption Stillbirths, see Prenatal mortality Stochastic processes, 269, 304, 305, 345 replacement behavior, 92-93, 95, 105- 106, 107, 345 Structural estimation, 11, 90, 96, 97, 107- 108 Sub-Saharan Africa, 255 adult mortality, 138, 141, 142- 147, 149-151, 154, 156-161, 164 166, 174 age factors, family life cycles, 269-270, 274 275, 298-300 maternal, 145, 270, 279-280, 287, 304, 305 birth timing, 269-270, 280-298, 303 child death, individual, 13, 254, 276 277, 300 ethnicity, 273, 283 lactation interruption, 40, 142, 144, 263, 271-272, 275, 282, 299, 301 parity factors, 255, 261, 263-265, 269 272, 280-302, 304 trends, 13, 18, 25, 138 see also AIDS, sub-Saharan Africa; specific countries Sweden, 200, 202, 205, 207, 209, 308 T Taiwan, 19 Tanzania, 18, 139, 146-181 425 Target fertility model, 75, 77 Thailand, 15, 17, 19 Time-series analyses, 11, 184, 254 Costa Rica, 391-395 Europe, country studies, 188, 191, 196(n.14), 215 India, 350-353, 356, 359, 361 Indonesia, 323-330 United States, 234, 247 U Uganda, 145 Uncertainty, decision-making, 6, 11, 22, 76, 77, 78-79, 263 bias toward negative events, 122-124 cultural factors, 127 fatalism, 5, 7, 260-261, 299, 322, 384 social learning and, 113, 115, 117-120, 128 see also Insurance behavior; Replacement behavior United National Population Division, 6 United States anthropometric data, 234, 235 baby boom, 234, 238 birth spacing, 40, 43, 46, 62-68 cross-sectional analysis, 238, 247 education, 129 ethnicity, 229-231, 232, 235, 241-242, 244, 245 family size, 240, 241, 242 insurance and replacement effects, 24, 227-253 life expectancy, 232-233, 234, 235 longitudinal studies, 7-8, 24, 227-253 marriage and marital status, 240, 241, 242 maternal age, 228, 229, 230, 241, 242, 244 migration effects, 229, 238, 246 parity factors, 240-242 samples and sampling, 240 vital statistics, 231-232, 234-235, 246

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426 Unwanted fertility, 8-9, 41, 42, 45, 345 346 AIDS and, 144, 165 India, 342, 343, 356, 359, 378 Urban as rural residence, 26, 41, 45 AIDS, 138, 139-142, 145, 146 Bangladesh, 20 Costa Rica, 386, 387, 400 Europe, 196, 197, 198, 200, 201, 203- 206, 209 Middle East, 20-21 Nigeria, 113, 143 social learning, 113, 125- 126 United States, 238, 244, 245, 246 Utility maximization models, 76-78, 80 88, 90, 108, 114-115 INDEX W Wales, 196(n.14), 197, 200-203 World Fertility Surveys, 2, 6(n.3), 260, 321, 385 z Zaire, 145 Zimbabwe, 13, 262, 264

Representative terms from entire chapter:

replacement behavior