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Jar IlUllIf
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Mortality Decline and
Reproc~uctive Change
Mark R. Montgomery and Barney Cohen, Editors
Committee on Population
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Ave., NW · Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by
a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the Na-
tional Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This activity was funded by the Office of Population of the U.S. Agency for International
Development, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
From death to birth: mortality decline and reproductive change / Mark
R. Montgomery and Barney Cohen, editors.
p. cm.
"Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education, National Research Council."
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-309-05896-1 (pbk.)
1. Mortality. 2. Fertility, Human. I. Montgomery, Mark, 1953
. II. Cohen, Barney, 1959- . III. National Research Council
(U.S.). Committee on Population.
HB 1321.F76 1997
304.6'3 dc21 97-33802
From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change is available for sale from the
National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Lock Box 285, Washington, DC 20055.
Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). Order electronically via
Internet at http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United
States of America.
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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
RONALD D. LEE (Chair), Departments of Demography and Economics,
University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern
University
JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York
JOHN B. CASTERLINE, The Population Council, New York
LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California
JANE MENKEN, Population Program, University of Colorado, Boulder
ROBERT A. MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
MARK R. MONTGOMERY, Department of Economics, State University of
New York, Stony Brook, and The Population Council, New York
W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins
University
ALBERTO PALLONI, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin,
Madison
JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University
MARTA TIENDA, Population Research Center, University of Chicago
AMY O. TSUI, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill
JOHN HAAGA, Director
BARNEY COHEN, Program Officer
TRISH DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant*
LATANYA JOHNSON, Senior Project Assistant
JOEL ROSENQUIST, Senior Project Assistant**
* through May 1997
** through June 1997
iii
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CONTRIBUTORS
MARTHA AINSWORTH, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
P.N. MARI BHAT, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India
BARNEY COHEN, Committee on Population, National Research Council
BARTHELEMY KUATE DEFO, Department of Demography, University of
Montreal
DEON FILMER, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
ELIZABETH FRANKENBERG, RAND, Santa Monica, California
PATRICK R. GALLOWAY, Department of Demography, University of
California, Berkeley
LAURENCE M. GRUMMER-STRAWN, Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta,
Georgia
MICHAEL R. HAINES, Department of Economics, Colgate University
EUGENE A. HAMMEL, Departments of Anthropology and Demography,
University of California, Berkeley
RONALD D. LEE, Departments of Demography and Economics, University of
California, Berkeley
ZUGUO MEI, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia
MARK R. MONTGOMERY, Department of Economics, State University of
New York, Stony Brook, and The Population Council, New York
LUIS ROSERO-BIXBY, Office of Population Research, Princeton University,
and Institute of Health Research, University of Costa Rica
INNOCENT SEMALI, Muhimbili University College of Health Sciences,
University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
PAUL W. STUPP, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia
KENNETH I. WOLPIN, Department of Economics, University of
Pennsylvania
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal
government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National
Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the
National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government
and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth
I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A.
Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Preface
The Committee on Population was established by the National Research
Council in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences
to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's mandate is
to conduct scientific assessments of major population issues and to provide a
forum for discussion and analysis of important public policy issues related to
population.
The Committee on Population has a long history of activities in world popu-
lation issues. In anticipation of the United Nations International Conference on
Population and Development in 1994, representatives of national academies of
science from around the world met in New Delhi, India, in a "science summit" on
World Population. In a joint statement, 58 of the World's scientific academies
challenged "scientists, engineers, and health professionals" to "study and provide
advice on . . . factors that affect reproductive behavior, family size, and success-
ful family planning" (p. l l). In response, the committee has organized a range of
different activities designed to increase knowledge of these important demo-
graphic variables. In 1994, the committee organized a Panel on Reproductive
Health; its report, published in 1997, assesses the state of knowledge of reproduc-
tive health problems in developing countries and proposes research and program
priorities designed to improve global reproductive health. And, since 1995, the
committee has organized a series of workshops to review what is known about
the determinants of fertility transition in developing countries.
. .
vat
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. . .
vile
PREFACE
The papers in this volume were first presented at such a workshop, held in
November 1995, which was designed to bring together researchers from a variety
of different disciplines to discuss what is known about how changes in infant and
child mortality risk affect reproductive outcomes. Given that the balance of
mortality and fertility rates determines the rate of population growth, which in
turn has important implications for social and economic welfare, it is perhaps
surprising that it has been almost 20 years since there has been a systematic
examination of these crucial demographic variables. Many demographic changes
have occurred over this period. Considerable variability has been recorded in
countries' routes to the fertility transition, but the cause of such variation, and
particularly the role of government policy towards population and family plan-
ning, remains an open question. Casual observation might suggest that a decline
in mortality is the most important prerequisite for a decline in fertility, but the
research base for this conclusion is surprisingly thin.
The Committee on Population thanks all those who helped in this activity
from its inception, through the workshop, to the final publication of this volume.
Primary organization and planning for the workshop and this report was overseen
by committee member Mark Montgomery, aided by several other current and
former members, including Caroline Bledsoe, John Casterline, Anne Pebley, and
Ron Rindfuss. They were assisted by several members of the committee's staff:
the work took place under the general direction of John Haaga, director of the
Committee on Population; Trish DeFrisco skillfully handled all administrative
duties; Winfield Swanson and Elaine McGarraugh adroitly edited the manu-
script; and Trang Ta prepared the final version of the manuscript for publication.
Key to all the work was Barney Cohen, who managed the project from its incep-
tion to this publication, with intelligence, humor, and, above all, patience.
The committee also gratefully acknowledges the United States' Agency for
International Development, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the William
and Flora Hewlett Foundation for their generous financial support.
Finally, we are indebted to all the workshop participants for their willingness
to participate and to contribute their special knowledge.
Ronald D. Lee, Chair
Committee on Population
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Contents
Introduction
Barney Cohen and Mark R. Montgomery
Effect of a Child's Death on Birth Spacing:
A Cross-National Analysis
Laurence M. Grummer-Strawn, Paul W. Stupp, and Zuguo Mei
39
3 The Impact of Infant and Child Mortality Risk on Fertility 74
Kenneth I. Wolpin
Learning and Lags in Mortality Perceptions
Mark R. Montgomery
The Impact of AIDS Mortality on Individual Fertility:
Evidence from Tanzania
Martha Ainsworth, Deon Filmer, and Innocent Semali
112
138
6 Infant Mortality and the Fertility Transition:
Macro Evidence from Europe and New Findings from Prussia 182
Patrick R. Galloway, Ronald D. Lee, and Eugene A. Hammel
7 The Relationship Between Infant and Child Mortality and
Fertility: Some Historical and Contemporary Evidence for
the United States
Michael R. Haines
Six
227
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x
8 Fertility Response to Infant and Child Mortality in Africa with
Special Reference to Cameroon
Barthe'le'my Kuate Defo
9 The Relationship Between Infant and Child Mortality and
Subsequent Fertility in Indonesia: 1971-1991
Elizabeth Frankenberg
10 Micro and Macro Effects of Child Mortality on Fertility:
The Case of India
P.N. Marl Bhat
11 Child Mortality and the Fertility Transition:
Aggregated and Multilevel Evidence from Costa Rica
Luis Rosero-Bixby
INDEX
CONTENTS
254
316
339
384
411
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