U.S. SUPERSONIC COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program

Committee on High Speed Research

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program U.S. SUPERSONIC COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Committee on High Speed Research Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract No. NASW-4938 Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-69127 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05878-3 Available for sale from: National Academy Press Box 285 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program COMMITTEE ON HIGH SPEED RESEARCH RONALD W. YATES (chair), U.S. Air Force (retired), Monument, Colorado DONALD W. BAHR, General Electric Aircraft Engines (retired), Cincinnati, Ohio JAMES B. DAY, Belcan Engineering Group, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio ANTONY JAMESON, Stanford University, Stanford, California DONALD T. LOVELL, Boeing Commerical Airplane Group (retired), Bellevue, Washington JOHN M. REISING, U.S. Air Force Wright Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio DAVID K. SCHMIDT, University of Maryland at College Park DANIEL P. SCHRAGE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta CHARLOTTE H. TEKLITZ, American Airlines, Dallas-Fort Worth Airport, Texas EARL R. THOMPSON, United Technologies Research Center, East Hartford, Connecticut DIANNE S. WILEY, Northrop Grumman, Pico Rivera, California Staff ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director JOANN CLAYTON-TOWNSEND, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board MARY MESZAROS, Senior Project Assistant

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD JOHN D. WARNER (chair), The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington STEVEN AFTERGOOD, Federation of American Scientists, Washington, D.C. GEORGE A. BEKEY, University of Southern California, Los Angeles GUION S. BLUFORD, JR., NYMA Incorporated, Brook Park, Ohio RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, Lockheed Martin, Denver, Colorado BARBARA C. CORN, BC Consulting Incorporated, Searcy, Arkansas STEVEN D. DORFMAN, Hughes Electronics Corporation, Los Angeles, California DONALD C. FRASER, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts DANIEL HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge FREDERICK HAUCK, International Technology Underwriters, Bethesda, Maryland WILLIAM H. HEISER, U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado WILLIAM HOOVER, U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia BENJAMIN HUBERMAN, Huberman Consulting Group, Washington, D.C. FRANK E. MARBLE, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena C. JULIAN MAY, Tech/Ops International Incorporated, Kennesaw, Georgia GRACE M. ROBERTSON, McDonnell Douglas, Long Beach, California GEORGE SPRINGER, Stanford University, Stanford, California Staff JOANN CLAYTON-TOWNSEND, Director

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Preface The United States leads the world in the manufacture of commercial aircraft, and civil aviation is an important part of American life, providing safe travel and important economic benefits. However, the United States did not always hold this preeminent position in aeronautics, and there is no guarantee that the current success will last indefinitely. Continued leadership will depend upon many factors, including successful innovation in the design and manufacture of safe and affordable aircraft. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently developing advanced technologies as a foundation for the next breakthrough in civil aviation: an economically viable, environmentally acceptable supersonic transport. The High Speed Research Program is working with industry to identify and address critical technological challenges that must be overcome to initiate commercial development of a practical supersonic transport. In support of the High Speed Research Program, NASA requested that the National Research Council conduct an independent assessment of the program's planning and progress. Areas of particular interest include the ability of technologies under development to meet program goals related to noise, emissions, service life, weight, range, and payload. In response, the National Research Council established the High Speed Research Committee. The study committee met five times between June 1996 and January 1997, collecting information, assessing relevant issues, and generating appropriate recommendations. As detailed herein, the committee concluded the High Speed Research Program is well organized and has made substantial progress. Even so, significant changes are needed to enable the program to meet its stated objectives. Gen Ronald W. Yates, U.S. Air Force (retired) Chairman, High Speed Research Committee

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   11     Overview of the High Speed Research Program   11     Study Process   21     Organization of This Report   22     Preview of the Way Ahead   23     References   25 2   REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS   26     Market Demand   26     International Considerations   33     Key Product and Process Characteristics   35     Market, Technology, and Financial Risks   42     References   44 3   PROPULSION   46     Critical Propulsion Materials   49     Combustor   52     Exhaust Nozzle   58     Fuel Efficiency   58     System Integration and Testing   59     References   60 4   AIRFRAME   61     Background   61     Selection of Materials   63

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program     Service Life   71     Manufacturing   73     Structural Design   77     Aerodynamic Design   86     Airframe Summary   88     References   90 5   INTEGRATED AIRCRAFT   91     Systems Integration, Flight Dynamics, and Control   92     Flight Deck Systems   97     Community Noise   105     Certification   106     Aircraft Operations   107     References   109 6   SUMMARY OF PROGRAM PLANNING ISSUES   110     General Program Planning Issues   111     Affordability   115     Program Execution   119     APPENDICES         A LIST OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   129     B BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS   142     C STATEMENT OF TASK   147     D PARTICIPANTS IN COMMITTEE MEETINGS   148     ACRONYMS   150

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLES 1-1   HSR Program Work Breakdown Structure   13 1-2   Total NASA Funding for the HSR Program from Program Inception in FY 1990 through Planned Completion in FY 2002   14 1-3   HSR Funding Allocation by Technology   14 2-1   HSCT Schedule between New York City (NYC) and London Heathrow (LHR) (local times)   30 2-2   HSCT Schedule between Tokyo (NRT) and Los Angeles (LAX) (local times)   31 2-3   Risk-Weighting Factors   39 2-4   Key Product and Process Characteristics Ranked by Risk-Weighted Importance   41 3-1   Calculated Steady-State Total Column Ozone Change between 40°N and 50°N Averaged over a Year   53 3-2   Concerns and Risks Associated with Ultralow NOx Combustors   55 3-3   Suggested Time Line for Combustor Development   57 FIGURES ES-1   Time line for comprehensive risk reduction program leading to program launch   3 1-1   Critical enabling technologies for a commercially viable HSCT   13 1-2   Schedule of top-level milestones and objectives   15 1-3   HSR integrated product and process team hierarchy   16 1-4   HSR Program technology integration   17 1-5   Blank technology audit data sheet   18 1-6   Definition of TRLs   20

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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program 1-7   Time line for a comprehensive risk reduction program leading to program launch   24 2-1   HSCT/HSR QFD product planning matrix   37 2-2   Market, technology, and financial uncertainties   43 3-1   Conceptual HSCT engine and nozzle (without air intake)   48 3-2   HSCT engine and exhaust nozzle   49 4-1   Predicted equilibrium skin temperatures for a Mach 2.4 HSCT   62 4-2   Estimated thermal stability of potential HSCT structural materials (20-year service life)   63 4-3   Materials and structures baselines for the TCA   75 4-4   Structures challenge   78 4-5   Current levels of technology readiness of composite materials are unequal, jeopardizing development of structural concepts   80 4-6   Full-scale large component test articles   84 5-1   Difference in frequency between unstable attitude mode and the lowest structural vibration mode frequency of the TCA design   93 5-2   APSE effects interact with many other issues and design activities   95 5-3   Droop nose versus synthetic vision for approach and landing   97 5-4   Artist's concept of one possible flight deck   98 5-5   Object detection and collision avoidance—conventional window versus external visibility system   101 5-6   Surface Operation Research and Evaluation Vehicle (SOREV)   102 5-7   Comparison of the SOREV and TCA designs (side view)   103 5-8   Flight deck system program schedule   104 6-1   Comprehensive risk reduction program leading to program launch   115 BOX 3-1   Conceptual propulsion system   47