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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program U.S. SUPERSONIC COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Committee on High Speed Research Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract No. NASW-4938 Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-69127 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05878-3 Available for sale from: National Academy Press Box 285 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program COMMITTEE ON HIGH SPEED RESEARCH RONALD W. YATES (chair), U.S. Air Force (retired), Monument, Colorado DONALD W. BAHR, General Electric Aircraft Engines (retired), Cincinnati, Ohio JAMES B. DAY, Belcan Engineering Group, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio ANTONY JAMESON, Stanford University, Stanford, California DONALD T. LOVELL, Boeing Commerical Airplane Group (retired), Bellevue, Washington JOHN M. REISING, U.S. Air Force Wright Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio DAVID K. SCHMIDT, University of Maryland at College Park DANIEL P. SCHRAGE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta CHARLOTTE H. TEKLITZ, American Airlines, Dallas-Fort Worth Airport, Texas EARL R. THOMPSON, United Technologies Research Center, East Hartford, Connecticut DIANNE S. WILEY, Northrop Grumman, Pico Rivera, California Staff ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director JOANN CLAYTON-TOWNSEND, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board MARY MESZAROS, Senior Project Assistant
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD JOHN D. WARNER (chair), The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington STEVEN AFTERGOOD, Federation of American Scientists, Washington, D.C. GEORGE A. BEKEY, University of Southern California, Los Angeles GUION S. BLUFORD, JR., NYMA Incorporated, Brook Park, Ohio RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, Lockheed Martin, Denver, Colorado BARBARA C. CORN, BC Consulting Incorporated, Searcy, Arkansas STEVEN D. DORFMAN, Hughes Electronics Corporation, Los Angeles, California DONALD C. FRASER, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts DANIEL HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge FREDERICK HAUCK, International Technology Underwriters, Bethesda, Maryland WILLIAM H. HEISER, U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado WILLIAM HOOVER, U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia BENJAMIN HUBERMAN, Huberman Consulting Group, Washington, D.C. FRANK E. MARBLE, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena C. JULIAN MAY, Tech/Ops International Incorporated, Kennesaw, Georgia GRACE M. ROBERTSON, McDonnell Douglas, Long Beach, California GEORGE SPRINGER, Stanford University, Stanford, California Staff JOANN CLAYTON-TOWNSEND, Director
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Preface The United States leads the world in the manufacture of commercial aircraft, and civil aviation is an important part of American life, providing safe travel and important economic benefits. However, the United States did not always hold this preeminent position in aeronautics, and there is no guarantee that the current success will last indefinitely. Continued leadership will depend upon many factors, including successful innovation in the design and manufacture of safe and affordable aircraft. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently developing advanced technologies as a foundation for the next breakthrough in civil aviation: an economically viable, environmentally acceptable supersonic transport. The High Speed Research Program is working with industry to identify and address critical technological challenges that must be overcome to initiate commercial development of a practical supersonic transport. In support of the High Speed Research Program, NASA requested that the National Research Council conduct an independent assessment of the program's planning and progress. Areas of particular interest include the ability of technologies under development to meet program goals related to noise, emissions, service life, weight, range, and payload. In response, the National Research Council established the High Speed Research Committee. The study committee met five times between June 1996 and January 1997, collecting information, assessing relevant issues, and generating appropriate recommendations. As detailed herein, the committee concluded the High Speed Research Program is well organized and has made substantial progress. Even so, significant changes are needed to enable the program to meet its stated objectives. Gen Ronald W. Yates, U.S. Air Force (retired) Chairman, High Speed Research Committee
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 11 Overview of the High Speed Research Program 11 Study Process 21 Organization of This Report 22 Preview of the Way Ahead 23 References 25 2 REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS 26 Market Demand 26 International Considerations 33 Key Product and Process Characteristics 35 Market, Technology, and Financial Risks 42 References 44 3 PROPULSION 46 Critical Propulsion Materials 49 Combustor 52 Exhaust Nozzle 58 Fuel Efficiency 58 System Integration and Testing 59 References 60 4 AIRFRAME 61 Background 61 Selection of Materials 63
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Service Life 71 Manufacturing 73 Structural Design 77 Aerodynamic Design 86 Airframe Summary 88 References 90 5 INTEGRATED AIRCRAFT 91 Systems Integration, Flight Dynamics, and Control 92 Flight Deck Systems 97 Community Noise 105 Certification 106 Aircraft Operations 107 References 109 6 SUMMARY OF PROGRAM PLANNING ISSUES 110 General Program Planning Issues 111 Affordability 115 Program Execution 119 APPENDICES A LIST OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 129 B BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS 142 C STATEMENT OF TASK 147 D PARTICIPANTS IN COMMITTEE MEETINGS 148 ACRONYMS 150
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLES 1-1 HSR Program Work Breakdown Structure 13 1-2 Total NASA Funding for the HSR Program from Program Inception in FY 1990 through Planned Completion in FY 2002 14 1-3 HSR Funding Allocation by Technology 14 2-1 HSCT Schedule between New York City (NYC) and London Heathrow (LHR) (local times) 30 2-2 HSCT Schedule between Tokyo (NRT) and Los Angeles (LAX) (local times) 31 2-3 Risk-Weighting Factors 39 2-4 Key Product and Process Characteristics Ranked by Risk-Weighted Importance 41 3-1 Calculated Steady-State Total Column Ozone Change between 40°N and 50°N Averaged over a Year 53 3-2 Concerns and Risks Associated with Ultralow NOx Combustors 55 3-3 Suggested Time Line for Combustor Development 57 FIGURES ES-1 Time line for comprehensive risk reduction program leading to program launch 3 1-1 Critical enabling technologies for a commercially viable HSCT 13 1-2 Schedule of top-level milestones and objectives 15 1-3 HSR integrated product and process team hierarchy 16 1-4 HSR Program technology integration 17 1-5 Blank technology audit data sheet 18 1-6 Definition of TRLs 20
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U.S. Supersonic Commercial Aircraft: Assessing NASA's High Speed Research Program 1-7 Time line for a comprehensive risk reduction program leading to program launch 24 2-1 HSCT/HSR QFD product planning matrix 37 2-2 Market, technology, and financial uncertainties 43 3-1 Conceptual HSCT engine and nozzle (without air intake) 48 3-2 HSCT engine and exhaust nozzle 49 4-1 Predicted equilibrium skin temperatures for a Mach 2.4 HSCT 62 4-2 Estimated thermal stability of potential HSCT structural materials (20-year service life) 63 4-3 Materials and structures baselines for the TCA 75 4-4 Structures challenge 78 4-5 Current levels of technology readiness of composite materials are unequal, jeopardizing development of structural concepts 80 4-6 Full-scale large component test articles 84 5-1 Difference in frequency between unstable attitude mode and the lowest structural vibration mode frequency of the TCA design 93 5-2 APSE effects interact with many other issues and design activities 95 5-3 Droop nose versus synthetic vision for approach and landing 97 5-4 Artist's concept of one possible flight deck 98 5-5 Object detection and collision avoidance—conventional window versus external visibility system 101 5-6 Surface Operation Research and Evaluation Vehicle (SOREV) 102 5-7 Comparison of the SOREV and TCA designs (side view) 103 5-8 Flight deck system program schedule 104 6-1 Comprehensive risk reduction program leading to program launch 115 BOX 3-1 Conceptual propulsion system 47