Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000–2035

Becoming a 21st-Century Force

VOLUME 2 Technology

Panel on Technology

Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces

Naval Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000–2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force VOLUME 2 Technology Panel on Technology Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces Naval Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work was performed under Department of the Navy Contract N00014-96-D-0169/0001 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do. Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copies available from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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PANEL ON TECHNOLOGY JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California, Chair HERBERT RABIN, University of Maryland, Vice Chair SUSAN D. ALLEN, Florida State University RONALD CLARK, Lockheed Martin Corporation ANTHONY J. DeMARIA, DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc. DANIEL N. HELD, Northrop Grumman Corporation RAY L. LEADABRAND, Leadabrand and Associates, Inc. DAVID W. McCALL, Far Hills, New Jersey WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS, Northstar Associates, Inc. DENNIS L. POLLA, University of Minnesota MARA G. PRENTISS, Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University JOHN W. ROUSE, JR., Southern Research Institute ALBERT I. SCHINDLER, Rockville, Maryland STEVEN J. TEMPLE, Raytheon Company EDWARD W. THOMPSON, Hughes Research Laboratory ROBERT M. WESTERVELT, Harvard University Invited Participants ARISTOS CHRISTOU, University of Maryland FRANK A. HORRIGAN, Raytheon Electronic Systems JOHN W.R. POPE, JR., Tri-Tech Microproducts TIMOTHY D. ROARK, TRW HOWARD STEVENS, Vector Research (as of January 1, 1997) Navy Liaison Representatives PAUL G. BLATCH, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E FRED WOLPERT, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E1 Consultants LEE M. HUNT SIDNEY G. REED, JR. JAMES G. WILSON Staff RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director, Naval Studies Board PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

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COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR FUTURE NAVAL FORCES DAVID R. HEEBNER, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Study Director ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc. ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute GERALD A. CANN, Raytheon Company GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired) ALEXANDER FLAX, Potomac, Maryland WILLIAM J. MORAN, Redwood City, California ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California VINCENT VITTO, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Navy Liaison Representatives RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR., USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996) VADM THOMAS B. FARGO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996) RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91 CDR DOUGLASS BIESEL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N812C1 PAUL G. BLATCH, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E Marine Corps Liaison Representative LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER, USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command Consultants LEE M. HUNT SIDNEY G. REED, JR. JAMES G. WILSON Staff RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director, Naval Studies Board PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

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NAVAL STUDIES BOARD DAVID R. HEEBNER, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Chair GEORGE M. WHITESIDES. Harvard University, Vice Chair ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc. ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute NORVAL L. BROOME, Mitre Corporation GERALD A. CANN, Raytheon Company SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired), Special Advisor ANTHONY J. DeMARIA, DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc. JOHN F. EGAN, Lockheed Martin Corporation ROBERT HUMMEL, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University DAVID W. McCALL, Far Hills, New Jersey ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS, Northstar Associates, Inc. MARA G. PRENTISS, Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University HERBERT RABIN, University of Maryland JULIE JCH RYAN, Booz, Allen and Hamilton HARRISON SHULL, Monterey, California KEITH A. SMITH, Vienna, Virginia ROBERT C. SPINDEL, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington DAVID L. STANFORD, Science Applications International Corporation H. GREGORY TORNATORE, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University J. PACE Van DEVENDER, Prosperity Institute VINCENT VITTO, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology BRUCE WALD, Arlington Education Consultants Navy Liaison Representatives RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR., USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996) VADM THOMAS B. FARGO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996) RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91 RONALD N. KOSTOFF, Office of Naval Research

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Marine Corps Liaison Representative LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER, USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-Chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-Chair PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc. JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Minnesota SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center CHARLES A. ZRAKET, Mitre Corporation (retired) NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

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Preface This report is part of the nine-volume series entitled Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000–2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force. The series is the product of an 18-month study requested by the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). To carry out this study, eight technical panels were organized under the Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces to examine all of the specific technical areas called out in the terms of reference. On November 28, 1995, the Chief of Naval Operations requested that the National Research Council initiate (through its Naval Studies Board) a thorough examination of the impact of advancing technology on the form and capability of the naval forces to the year 2035. The terms of reference of the study specifically asked for an identification of "present and emerging technologies that relate to the full breadth of Navy and Marine Corps mission capabilities," with specific attention to "(1) information warfare, electronic warfare, and the use of surveillance assets; (2) mine warfare and submarine warfare; (3) Navy and Marine Corps weaponry in the context of effectiveness on target; [and] (4) issues in caring for and maximizing effectiveness of Navy and Marine Corps human resources." Ten specific technical areas were identified to which attention should be broadly directed. The CNO's letter of request with the full terms of reference is given in Appendix A of this report. The Panel on Technology was constituted to address item 1 of the terms of reference: Recognizing the need to obtain maximum leverage from Navy and Marine Corps capital assets within existing and planned budgets, the review should place

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emphasis on surveying present and emerging technical opportunities to advance Navy and Marine Corps capabilities within these constraints. The review should include key military and civilian technologies that can affect Navy and Marine Corps future operations. This technical assessment should evaluate which science and technology research must be maintained in naval research laboratories as core requirements versus what research commercial industry can be relied upon to develop. Panel membership included broad expertise in managing large-scale technology development programs, as well as specific expertise in condensed matter physics; electronics and electrical engineering; photonics, optics, and electrooptics; materials science, including micro- and nanofabrication; chemistry and chemical engineering; computer and information science; and space science and engineering. The panel held 12 meetings over the course of a year during which it received input from scientists, engineers, and decisionmakers from government, industry, and academia.

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Acknowledgments The Panel on Technology would like to acknowledge the critical help of the following experts who made important contributions to this report: M. AlSheikhly, S. Ankem, R. Briber, W. Chappas, I. Lloyd, J. Quinn, R. Ramesh, G. Rubloff, and M. Wattage, all from the University of Maryland; R.C. Cammarata, from Johns Hopkins University; L.-Q. Chen, from Pennsylvania State University; C.K. Cowan, P.G. Mulgaonkar, and V. Shastri, from SRI International; R. Crowe, from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); M.J. Daily and K. Reiser, from Hughes Research Laboratory; D.E. Dietrich, from Mississippi State University; J. Dorr, from Duke and Associates; R.C. Herndon, G. Jones, T.N. Krishnamurti, and J.J. O'Brien, from Florida State University; M.E. Fine and S. Vaynman, from Northwestern University; O.T. Inal, from the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Metallurgy; D.V. Burke, Jr., M. O'Brien, M. Prestero, P. Rosenstrach, and G.T. Schmidt, from the Charles Stark Draper Laboratory; R. Spindel, from the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington; and C. Tschan, from the U.S. Air Force's 50th Weather Squadron. In addition to acknowledging the valuable help of the outside experts noted above, the panel's chair would like to acknowledge the following panel members and invited participants for their extraordinary efforts during the course of this study: S.D. Allen, from Florida State University; A. Christou, from the University of Maryland; R. Clark, from Lockheed Martin Corporation; F.A. Horrigan, from Raytheon Electronic Systems; W.J. Phillips, from Northstar Associates, Inc.; J.W. Rouse, Jr., from Southern Research Institute; and E.W. Thompson, from Hughes Research Laboratory.

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Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   OVERVIEW OF TECHNOLOGY OPPORTUNITIES   9     Driving Technology Application Areas,   9     Key Benefits,   21     Exciting New Technologies,   24     Science and Technology Support,   24     Focused Research and Development,   25 2   COMPUTATION   28     Introduction: What Is Computation?,   28     Relevance: What Will Computation Do for the Navy and Marine Corps?,   29     Technology Status and Trends,   30     Future Impact on Naval Operations,   59     Developments Needed: Military Versus Commercial,   60     Status of Foreign Efforts and Trends,   60     Time Scale for Development and Deployment,   61     Recommendation,   62 3   INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS   63     Military Context,   63     Definition of Information Technologies,   64     Distributed Collaboration,   65

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    Human-centered Systems Technology,   68     Intelligent Systems,   71     Planning and Decision Aids,   74     Software Engineering,   76     Communications and Internetworking,   82     Offensive and Defensive Information Warfare,   91     Recommendations,   102 4   SENSORS   104     Introduction,   104     Relevance: What Do Sensors Do for the Naval Forces?,   110     Technology Status and Trends,   110     Critical Common Technologies,   116     Individual Sensors,   149     Future Impact on Naval Operations,   174     Developments Needed—Military Versus Commercial,   177     Foreign Technology Status and Trends,   178     Time Scale for Development and Deployment,   180     Recommendation   180 5   AUTOMATION   181     Introduction,   181     Unmanned Underwater Vehicles,   182     Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,   184     Ship Automation,   187     GPS/INS Systems for Naval Platforms and Weapons,   189     Robotics,   192     Automatic Target Recognition,   198     Recommendation,   203 6   TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN PERFORMANCE   204     Introduction,   204     Technologies That Will Have an Impact,   205     Applications,   212     Recommendations,   217 7   MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES   218     Introduction,   218     Development Drivers,   219     Technology Trends and Future Materials Developments,   219     Anticipated Benefits of the Application of Materials Technologies,   228     Recommendation,   229

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8   ELECTRIC POWER AND PROPULSION   230     Introduction,   230     Electric Power Generation and Storage Technology,   233     The Electric Ship,   261     Recommendations,   280 9   FUTURE NAVAL FORCES AND THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT   282     Introduction,   282     Terrestrial Weather and Climate Prediction,   283     Space Weather Prediction,   286     Deep-water Modeling,   288     Littoral-water Modeling,   289     Shipboard Waste and Pollution Management,   292     Recommendations,   297 10   TECHNOLOGIES FOR ENTERPRISE PROCESSES   300     Introduction,   300     Simulation-based Acquisition,   301     Agile Commerce,   307     Real-time Logistics Management,   309     Resource Planning,   310     Dynamic Mission Planning,   311     System of Systems,   312     Recommendation,   313 11   OTHER TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION AREAS   314     Space,   314     Signature Management,   315     Chemical and Biological Warfare,   316     Combat Identification,   319     Recommendations,   321     APPENDIXES      A Terms of Reference   325     B Acronyms and Abbreviations   330

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