Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035

Becoming a 21st-Century Force

VOLUME 4 Human Resources

Panel on Human Resources

Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces

Naval Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force VOLUME 4 Human Resources Panel on Human Resources Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces Naval Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work was performed under Department of the Navy Contract N00014-96-D-0169/0001 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do. Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copies available from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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PANEL ON HUMAN RESOURCES ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses, Chair J. DEXTER FLETCHER, Institute for Defense Analyses, Vice Chair PAUL R. CHATELIER, Defense Modeling and Simulation Office DONALD J. CYMROT, Center for Naval Analyses WARREN S. GRUNDFEST, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center LEE D. HEIB, Yuma, Arizona ELYSE W. KERCE, Madison, Alabama REUVEN LEOPOLD, Syntek R. BOWEN LOFTIN, University of Houston JAMES A. MARTIN, Bryn Mawr College JOSEPH M. ROSEN, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center HARRISON SHULL, Monterey, California NORMAN H. SMITH, Linden, Virginia J. PACE VanDEVENDER, Prosperity Institute JOSEPH ZEIDNER, George Washington University Navy Liaison Representatives CDR MARK BURGUNDER, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N752 MS. SANDRA CRUM, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N464 CDR CHARLES ENGLISH, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N931 CDR GILBERT GIBSON, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N971P CDR CHARLES GUNN, USN, Bureau of Medicine LCDR WILLIAM JONSON, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N752 CDR BARBARA KOROSEC, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N122B CDR DAVID SORANNO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N712 DR. DANIEL STABILE, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, PERS6D Consultants LEE M. HUNT SIDNEY G. REED, JR. JAMES G. WILSON

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Staff RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director, Naval Studies Board PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

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COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR FUTURE NAVAL FORCES DAVID R. HEEBNER, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Study Director ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc. ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute GERALD A. CANN, Raytheon Company GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired) ALEXANDER FLAX, Potomac, Maryland WILLIAM J. MORAN, Redwood City, California ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California VINCENT VITTO, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Navy Liaison Representatives RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR., USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996) VADM THOMAS B. FARGO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996) RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91 CDR DOUGLASS BIESEL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N812C1 PAUL G. BLATCH, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E Marine Corps Liaison Representative LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER, USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command Consultants LEE M. HUNT SIDNEY G. REED, JR. JAMES G. WILSON Staff RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director, Naval Studies Board PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

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NAVAL STUDIES BOARD DAVID R. HEEBNER, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Chair GEORGE M. WHITESIDES, Harvard University, Vice Chair ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc. ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute NORVAL L. BROOME, Mitre Corporation GERALD A. CANN, Raytheon Company SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired), Special Advisor ANTHONY J. DeMARIA, DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc. JOHN F. EGAN, Lockheed Martin Corporation ROBERT HUMMEL, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University DAVID W. McCALL, Far Hills, New Jersey ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS, Northstar Associates, Inc. MARA G. PRENTISS, Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University HERBERT RABIN, University of Maryland JULIE JCH RYAN, Booz, Allen and Hamilton HARRISON SHULL, Monterey, California KEITH A. SMITH, Vienna, Virginia ROBERT C. SPINDEL, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington DAVID L. STANFORD, Science Applications International Corporation H. GREGORY TORNATORE, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University J. PACE VanDEVENDER, Prosperity Institute VINCENT VITTO, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology BRUCE WALD, Arlington Education Consultants Navy Liaison Representatives RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR., USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996) VADM THOMAS B. FARGO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (through July 3, 1996) RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91 RONALD N. KOSTOFF, Office of Naval Research

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Marine Corps Liaison Representative LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER, USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-Chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-Chair PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc. JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Minnesota SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center CHARLES A. ZRAKET, Mitre Corporation (retired) NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

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Preface This report is part of the nine-volume series entitled Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force. The series is the product of an 18-month study requested by the Chief of Naval Operations. To carry out this study, eight technical panels were organized under the Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces to examine all of the specific technical areas called out in the terms of reference. On November 28, 1995, the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) requested that the National Research Council initiate (through its Naval Studies Board) a thorough examination of the impact of advancing technology on the form and capability of the naval forces to the year 2035. The terms of reference for the study specifically asked for an identification of "present and emerging technologies that relate to the full breadth of Navy and Marine Corps mission capabilities," with specific attention to "(1) information warfare, electronic warfare, and the use of surveillance assets; (2) mine warfare and submarine warfare; (3) Navy and Marine Corps weaponry in the context of effectiveness on target; [and] (4) issues in caring for and maximizing effectiveness of Navy and Marine Corps human resources." Ten specific technical areas were identified to which attention should be broadly directed. The CNO's letter of request with the full terms of reference is given in Appendix A of this report. The Panel on Human Resources was constituted to address items 7, 8, and 9 in the terms of reference for the overall study: 7. In the future, Navy and Marine Corps personnel may be called upon to serve in non-traditional environments and face new types of threats. Application of new technologies to the Navy's medical and health care delivery systems should be assessed with these factors, as well as joint and coalition opera-

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tions, reduced force and manpower levels, and the adequacy of specialized training in mind. 8. Efficient and effective use of personnel will be of critical importance. The impact of new technologies on personnel issues, such as education and training, recruitment, retention and motivation, and the efficient marriage of personnel and machines should be addressed in the review. A review of past practices in education and training would provide a useful adjunct. 9. Housing, barracks, MWR [morale, welfare, and recreation] facilities, commissaries, child care, etc. are all part of the Quality of Life (QOL) of naval personnel. The study should evaluate how technology can be used to enhance QOL and should define militarily meaningful measures of effectiveness (for example, the impact on Navy readiness). The terms of reference charged the panel with conducting a very broad review of human resource issues. Within the context of its charge, the panel focused on the following four areas: Manpower and personnel. How can technology improve performance while reducing manning requirements at sea and ashore? Education and training. How can technology increase the effectiveness and stabilize the cost of education and training? Medical care. How can technology provide both protection and rapid medical care for sailors and marines in the emerging environments for naval operations? Quality of life. How can technology improve the quality of life for sailors and marines at work, at sea, and at home? The panel reviewed current practices and processes in these four areas and projected both requirements and the candidate technologies that would enable the Navy to more effectively meet these requirements by the year 2035. The panel sought the best and most up-to-date information it could find to help understand how activities in these four areas are accomplished now and how they are likely to be affected by emerging concepts of operations, human resource trends, and new technologies. The panel surveyed the practices of major corporations and other non-Defense Department sources to see how human resources are managed in the nondefense sector. Finally, the panel sought advice and information on trends and desirable outcomes for Navy and Marine Corps capabilities in these four areas of activity. Panel membership included expertise in human factors engineering, education and training, biomedical engineering, psychology, psychiatry, surgery and internal medicine, telecommunications and information science, management science, economics, and operational experience managing large manpower programs.

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Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   HUMAN RESOURCE ISSUES FOR THE NAVY AND MARINE CORPS   16     Recruiting People of Above-average Ability   17     Selective Recruiting Through More Lateral Entries   18     Keeping People Longer   19     Assessing Today's Quality   21     Looking to the Future   24 2   EDUCATION AND TRAINING   36     National Issues   36     Naval Force Issues   38     Military Training   40     Training Challenges   41     Technology Effectiveness   44     Budgetary Considerations   50     Flag and General Officer Training   54     Training Modernization   55     Training Summary   57 3   COMBAT MEDICINE   63     The Combat Medical Environment   63     Protection and Prevention   64     Casualty Assessment, Care, and Evacuation   66     Medical Technology   67

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4   QUALITY OF LIFE   72     The Role of Quality of Life   74     Assumptions About the Navy in the 21st Century   75     Impact of Technology   76     Impact of Demographic and Societal Changes   78     Quality-of-Life Research   79     Measures of Quality of Life   83     Quality-of-Life Priorities for the Future Navy and Marine Corps   85 5   DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF HUMAN PERFORMANCE   87     APPENDIXES         A Terms of Reference   93     B Acronyms and Abbreviations   98