range of M&S applications. The traditional approach of developing models separately for the various levels of resolution is fatally flawed when it means working with blinders on, which it often does. Those working exclusively at low resolutions are unlikely to understand the underlying phenomena and are therefore likely to misrepresent the aggregate phenomena. Those working exclusively at high resolution are unlikely to understand larger contexts and interrelationships. Their insights and conclusions may be much more conditionally valid than they realize. Further, the calibration of high-resolution models should exploit all the relevant information available, much of which is at low resolution.

We conclude, then, that research should be conducted jointly at multiple levels of resolution with a great deal of interaction and the goal of integration. 11 Such work should include relating stochastic and deterministic representations, as well as consideration of many other types of uncertainty. Such things will not occur without changes in both funding and management practices. The Department of the Navy should advocate such changes strenuously in the joint arena and with OSD. Otherwise, it is likely that the next generation of aggregate combat models for use in joint analysis will not be significantly better than the ones already available —and perhaps worse.

11  

This integration need not be in any single model, however. It might be in textbooks plus occasional cross-calibrations. We are not advocating single do-it-all-comprehensively models.



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