Figure 2.1 Partial Taxonomy of applications of M&S.

Acquisition Applications: Rates of Return on M&S Investment

Table 2.1 provides data on the return on investment (ROI) on M&S investment for tools, methods, databases, and supporting techniques used to assess the lethality and vulnerability of weapon systems milestone decisions and the Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analysis (COEA) process. The typical ROI was between $20 and $30 returned for each $1 invested (see next-to-last column). A number of the systems are used by naval forces.

Exercise Examples
Reforger and Kernel Blitz

In the realm of exercises, one of the better known examples of using M&S was in the 1992 exercise that replaced the early Reforger exercises involving U.S. and other NATO forces. Cost savings were reported on the order of $36 million, and participants believed that training of staffs and planners was improved (Worley et al., 1996, p. 14, drawing on an earlier study by Simpson et al., 1995).

Kernel Blitz was a fleet training exercise (FLEETEX) including live ships, submarines, aircraft, and land troops. The simulation portion augmented the fleet with additional synthetic ships, submarines, aircraft, and weapons. The simulation center used several existing computer facilities (including both coasts) and existing communications capability to link to platforms. A purpose of the exercise was to show that the use of simulated assets could add realism and complexity to training exercises. It is notoriously difficult to estimate cost savings or cost avoidance due to M&S because, in practice, one could not afford to use the real aircraft, ships, and submarines included in the simulations. However, if one calculates what doing so would have cost, then the Kernel Blitz exercise saved about $16 million. Much more important, however, is that the M&S enhance -



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