ing not only what route from A to B an armor force might take, but also what A and B should be, what position should be occupied before getting to A, what scheme of maneuver could be employed in the final assault, whether enemy forces should be fixed with artillery or maneuver forces, and so on. Such suggestions call for considerable “understanding ” of the situation, tactics, and so on. The commercial analog would be the “wizards” developed by Microsoft for tools like Excel. Again, the MIP will grow out of CFOR/SAFOR and exercise-planning tools, not the commercial side.

This is quite technically feasible, and the primary obstacles are often said to be lack of management and government vision to do it.

Extrapolating these to the 20- to 30-year time span is speculative, but

  • BFS and MIP will be extended to more types of weapon systems and more Joint applications of them.

  • Serious modeling of precision strikes will occur, as well as continued planning for very large scale action.

  • MIP will be applied in a two-sided fashion, so that plans and actions on one's own part would be countered by a simulated opponent that at least made some effort to adapt.

  • MIP and BFS will be applied at multiple levels simultaneously.

  • Planning tools will be extended to include realistic modeling of economic factors. This will include both the effect of combat action on the enemy's ability to fight and the enemy's effort to overcome those effects. Some work on such matters is beginning.

OTHER M&S-RELATED FORECASTS

Due to advances in many of the technologies that support M&S applications, one can anticipate all of the following: 9

  • By 2005, basic large-scale interoperability support.

  • By 2010 to 2015, operationally robust support for large-scale maneuvers, including some agent-based mission-domain model checking.

  • By 2015, credible simulation of combat operations before and during combat, including two-sided information warfare simulation.

  • Greatly improved semiautomated forces (SAFOR).

  • Speech- and natural-language interfaces to M&S.

  • Agent-based mediation of input and output and of system configuration when constructing M&S for a given purpose.

  • Greatly improved virtual reality systems with three dimensions and tactile and auditory stimuli. Users will enter the virtual reality and alter parameters.

9  

Abstracted from U.S. Air Force Scientific Advisory Board (1995), pp. 69ff.



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