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Flow Diagrams of the Engineering Community Introduction Several supply-and-demand flow diagrams and models of scientific and engineering manpower have been developed by investigators seek- ing to understand the dynamics of the nation's technical resources and to make projections of future needs. Some overlap greatly {see the examples cited in notes 1-6 at the end of this chapterJ. The very broad definition of the engineering community adopted by the Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer jCEUEJ required a much more detailed and comprehensive flow diagram than those associated with existing models. However, much was borrowed from the good work already done, and the resultant diagrams are compatible in con- cept but not necessarily in detail. It was recognized at the beginning of the study that some kind of analytic framework would be required for understanding and quantify- ing the dynamics of the engineering community. Beginning with the secondary education process, there are obviously many options avail- able to individuals, many of which lead to entry into the engineering community. In addition, there is a known high degree of mobility among the various sectors of the community and a steady attrition of people leaving the community, either temporarily or permanently. Indeed, the work of the Panel on Infrastructure Diagramming and Mod 21

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22 INFRAS TR UC TURK DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING cling disclosed that the process is much more complex than was expected, and this observation has been identified as a major finding of the committee. The panel addressed the need for an analytic framework lay develop- ing a diagram depicting the various populations in the engineering community and how people move between and within them. The diagramming process fulfills several important purposes in under- standing the engineering community: It provides a graphic representation of the complex flows and inter- actions of the people who make up the engineering community. It reduces ambiguity and confusion in dealing with technical human resources by establishing a consistent set of definitions and relationships among the groups involved. It facilitates the identification of options for entry into and depar- ture from the various segments of the manpower system. It provides a framework for empirical assessment of the impor- tance of the various populations and the magnitude of movements of people within the engineering community and between that commu- nity and the rest of society. It provides a basis for tracking past changes in characteristics of the engineering community and projecting future problems. It provides a foundation for studying the behavior of key subsets of the general population. Description of the Diagrams The flow diagrams prepared by the panel are constructed as a series of boxes {representing pools, or groups of people with common character- istics) and directional lines {representing the movements of people among the different populations). For clarity in the discussion that follows, pools or populations will be referred to as stocks, and the movement of people as Mows. The diagrams represent a one-year slice of time. Stocks are deter- mined at some arbitrary point in time; then, based on the flows mea- sured during the subsequent year, new stocks are determined for a year later. * * In reality, stocks and flows are not determined for exactly the same time periods because of variations in data collection. For example, stocks and flows in the employ- ment areas are usually on a calendar-year l~asis, whereas the educational areas are based on the school year. Unless there is some major perturbation in one of the data elements, these inconsistencies are not expected to affect conclusions significantly.

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 23 FOREIGN ENTRANTS ( ENTRY ~POST ~ -' CURRENTLY EMPLOYED POOL 1 ~ , FORESEE J ~( LIT FIGURE 1 Basic flow diagram of the U. S. engineering community. \ Four types of flow diagrams are required to describe completely the transactions in the engineering community. Each is described below in some detail. Basic Flow Diagram The basic flow diagram developed lay the panel is shown in Figure 1. In its simplest form the flow of people moves as follows: (1J from the entry pool of students admitted to higher education institutions, to t2) students engaged in educational preparation for entry into [3) employ- ment in the engineering community, followed by t4) exit from the engineering community, either on a temporary or permanent basis. Comprehensive Flow Diagram The comprehensive flout diagram shown in Figure 2 is an expansion of the basic flow diagram and includes all the significant stocks and flows of the engineering community. The names given to these stocks

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24 ~PRE3ENSIY! FLOR Dot U.S. BIGL~ING (X~iIll CFJE-II Fat FEBRUARY, 1984 ~ 9~, I-? ~ F ~-a 9~3 i, c,3. 9ec~x~ 9~3 ~ Co~cge i-3 PA INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING {~ _ L-Z I it) ~ t`~ Te~gy ~ | ~- 1 ~..9~ - 1 J raw _ | W~ ~ t) 1) it ~ _r ~ - L,~tB~-~-:NS~ __ I IMP BUM ! t ~ ; ~ ,l: t) I i~' A- I- ~ r - ~ 1~3 t' t! -1 i-~t }~ c ~ , ~ ..- , ~ ~ t ~T ~ ~ Udlb ~ At, ~I:. J. ~ = =: ecinJ: T T Drop =s Em-- ~-~ ~ 1 D=p 1 - ~ |~ - ~ ~SQAL ~1 ~W FIGURE 2 Comprehensive flow diagram of the U. S. engineering community.

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 25 l ~ to I t~ ~ ~ :=L-~=~ l F=`Ul~tr ~ ~ ~ t ~1 ~ 14 4 ~1 ~ ! lets to ~art! r-1 ~ 8~ Pa~ Poo1 ~ T~0t E-3 Ales Parve ~ Eat .., 1 ~ ~ - A. ~ nmbilitr Etc l - ~ - tIm E-2 , 1 _ _ t_ l Eat ~J ~1 ?!r'^ ace ~ 1 ~iJ Pm -a . --.I I., , -- t1 1 t 1 __ . ~J . ED IN ~ ,. ~ QF -ENDED; ~ ~?~ENG~ war

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26 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING and flows are consistent with the basic definitions contained in this report {see Chapter It for engineering community, engineer, engineer- ing technician, and engineering technologist. The definitions of all other terms used in the flowcharts are contained in the Glossary in Appendix C. Special mention is needed for two stocks that were defined during the diagramming process to describe adequately all the major options of people moving among the engineer, faculty, and technician pools: Staff Support that group of people giving active support to engi- neering activities but not currently functioning under the definitions of engineer, technician, or technologist. Included in staff support are such activities as technical management, procurement, sales, operations research, and personnel. Most of these individuals have been classified as engineers, technicians, or technologists in the past, and many will reenter those pools during their careers. Technical Reserve that group of people who are qualified With reasonable training) to function in one of the technical stocks I.e., as a member of the faculty, engineer, technician, or technologist pools or as staff supports but who are currently outside the engineering commu- nity. Included are retirees, people who are employed in other fields, individuals who are not working, those in military service, and so forth. These people are a potential source of supply under certain condi- tions, such as during a national emergency. Detailed Flow Diagrams The detailed flow diagram focuses on one particular stock and shows all the separate flows into and out of that stock. It is only at this level of detail that it is practical to identify numbers of people associated with the stocks and flows. A consistent numbering system, which is described in the "Labeling" section of Appendix C, has been devised to label the data elements for each stock and flow. An integral part of each detailed flow diagram is a table showing the labels, a description of the stocks and flows, and the data elements. Nineteen detailed flow diagrams have been developed to describe the engineering community completely; they are included in Appendix C. One example, "Flows Affecting Engineering Ph.D. Students,' is shown in Figure 3 in this chapter. The number of students in engineer- ing Ph.D. programs at the start of the reference period is represented by the rectangular box and the label C-1000. Eight significant sources are shown for new entrants into the graduate program, and 11 possible

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 27 E:~Wu~ - BS ENGINEERS (~i~) ~ 1 `~gf9CI ~CE _ _. _ 8 ~ 8 Cal ~ ~ lo RIB- ~if I ^~ _ ENGINED ~ ~ <~-15 STUDENTS r~68 ~> (C-1000) ~=$~ ~ B-I 61 0 ) - '] MS ~THf SCI MICE ~ 1 TECH-Lot J r~(;~5Q~ A-- - , ~-~(~= ~ ~GIN~L HIT Flows Affecting Engineering Ph.D. Students iFull TimeJ, 1960, 1970, and 1980 {in thousands) Label Description 1960 1970 1980 C- 1000 Engineering Ph.D. Students C-l lOO B.S. Admissions to Engineering Ph.D., From: B-1510 B.S. Engineers B-2510 B.S. Math/Science B-3510 B . S. Technology C-1200 M.S. Admissions to Engineering Ph.D., From: B- 1610 M. S . Engineers B-2610 M.S. Math/Science B-3610 M.S. Technology Foreign Ph.D. Students Transfer From Math/Science Ph.D. Transfer to Math/Science Ph.D. Ph.D. Engineering Graduates Return to Home Country To Engineering Faculty To Engineer Pool To Staff Support-Management To Staff Support-Technical Support To Technical Reserve Leave Ph. D. Program Return to Home Country To Engineering Faculty To Engineer Pool To Staff Support-Management To Staff Support-Technical Support To Technical Reserve C- 1300 C-2400 C- 1400 C-1500 C- 1510 C-1520 C-1530 C-1540a C-15401: C-1550 C-1600 C-1610 C-1620 C-1630 C- 1640a C- 16401' C-1650 5.& 14.8 14.5 0.8 0.05 2.5 0.24 0.45 1.46 0.24 0.12 FIGURE 3 Example of a detailed flow diagram and its accompanying table (from Appendix C of this report).

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28 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING destinations are shown for people leaving graduate programs, some with and some without the Ph.D. degree. Frequently, there are data elements for which a satisfactory value is not known to exist; this prevents rationalizing the flow system. Four options can be considered for reducing these data problems: 1. If analysis indicates the element to be small in relation to the other flows, it can be eliminated from the diagram or placed at zero. 2. A range of values or a most likely value may be estimated by persons most familiar with the system. 3. If data are available for the other elements in the system, a value can be calculated by difference. 4. Additional data can be collected if the data element is deemed important enough to the total system. Disaggrega ted Flo w Diagram The disaggregated flow diagram facilitates the study of subsets of the stocks and flows that make up the comprehensive diagram. In principle there are many ways in which the data can be disaggregated. Some are of great interest to certain sectors of the engineering community, and some may have a substantial bearing on the "quality" of the commu- nitsT F~mnlec of cn~rifir inn',irie..~ At the system are the following: 1 ~ Do electrical, chemical, and other types of engineers display simi- lar flow patterns? How important are foreign nationals in each element of stocks and flows? Do different sectors of the ecomony E.g., the electronics industry, the federal government) have different sources of supply? What is the makeup of the group that flows into the staff support stock and what does this do to the composition {quality) of the engineer pool? Unfortunately, available data are not necessarily adequate for studies of the type suggested lay the questions listed above. However, data disaggregation {see Figure 4) can be used to suggest answers to these types of questions. The Balance Equation In addition to serving as a graphic representation of the engineering community, the flow diagrams also represent a slice of time in the dynamics of the system. The numbers of people in the various stocks at

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 29 FACLJ:TY POOL ~ T~- BS ENGINEERS BS GRADS ID PXL SUBSTITUTE FOR BS ENGINEERS: MS ENGINEERS PHD ENGINEERS ELECTRICAL ENGRS. MECHANICAL ENGRS. IN ~ PXL ! 1 ~_ TECHNOLOGIST/ TECHNICIAN IS etc. _ _ SCI/MATH/CS BS, MS, PHD TECENOLOGY 7~\ ,, IMMIGRANT ENGRS. DATA DISAGGREGATIONS etc . _ ~ STAFF | SUPPORT TECHNICAL RESERVE SUBSTITUTE FOR ENGINEER PXL: ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY CHEMICAL INDUSTRY (etc.) GOVERNMENT INDUSTRY EDUCATION RED ENGR/CONSTR MFG,~PRODUCTIONIOPERATIONS etc. FIGURE 4 Flows of B.S. scientists and engineers within the engineer pool system. some point in time are affected during a one-year period lay the flows into and out of the system, resulting in a new set of values for the stocks at the end of the period. We have borrowed the following simple equa- tion from traditional energy and material balances: Qua + Ifi - IfO = Q2 where Qua = number of people in stock at beginning of period, Ifi = sum of flows into the stock, IfO = sum of flows out of the stock, Q2 = number of people in stock at end of period.

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30 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING The same simple relationship applies to the stocks that make up the engineering community and to the system as a whole. Applied to the detailed flow diagram for engineering Ph.D. students used as an exam- ple in Figure 3, the basic equation becomes: C1000 t1983) + [C1300 + C1510 + C2510 + C3510 + B1610 + B2610 + B3610 + C2400] - [C1400 + C1510 + C1520 + C1530 + C1540 + C1550 + C1610 + C1620 + C1630 + C1640 + C1650] = C1000 (1984~. A logical extension of the balance equation is the important matter of supply and demand for the various categories of participants in the engineering community. Using the engineer pool as a sample case, demand resulting from new job openings can best be expressed as the following: Demand = Attrition + Net lob Growth, where Attrition = people leaving the engineer pool for any reason during the measurement period. Net lob Growth = new jobs created in the pool minus any current jobs eliminated. Supply for the engineer pool can be expressed as: Supply = New Graduates + Transfers in + Immigrants, where New Graduates = recent graduates from any discipline or at any degree level who enter the engineering pool during the measure- ment period. Transfers in = persons who enter the pool from a different stock such as faculty, tech- nician pool, staff support, or techni- cal reserve. Immigrants = persons entering the engineer pool for the first time and whose educa- tional preparation was not in the U.S. higher-education system.

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 31 Demand can differ from supply lay either apositive number, in which ease there are net vacancies in the pool, or by a negative number, in which ease there is net unemployment in the pool. The equation for this relationship is: ~ Demand = Supply + Net Vaeaneies - Net Unemployment. Combining the above equations produces the following: Net lob Growth + Attrition = New Graduates + Transfers in + Immigrants + Net Vacancies - Net Unemployment. Data Availability A detailed discussion of the data bases needed to quantify the flow diagrams is included in Chapter 5. As mentioned earlier, it was appar- ent from the Barbells earliest deliberations that there are serious gaps in the data required to describe the general system. Furthermore, the data available from different sources are inconsistent because of differences in definitions, collection methods, and time frames. Given these prob- lems, the quality of data in the different areas of the engineering com- munity has been characterized for this study as ~aJ relatively good, {A relatively incomplete, or {eJ very limited. The areas are listed below, followed Where applieableJ by the latest source of data currently avail- able. There are relatively good data on the following: College enrollments Engineering Manpower Commission ~EMCJ of the American Association of Engineering Societies {AAES College graduates {EMCJ Ph.D. activities {National Academy of Sciences ~NASJ J Engineering faculty {American Society of Engineering Education ASEEJ J . Engineer pool {National Science Foundation {NSFJ J Foreign students {EMCJ The data are relatively incomplete in these areas: Staff support (NSF J Technical reserve {NSF J Technician pool {Bureau of Labor Statistics {BLSJ J Flows out of engineering/technician pools to retirement, due to death and disability, and to nonengineering work jBLSJ

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32 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING The data a. re very limited in the following areas: I. . mmlgratlon Emigration Reentering adults Community college graduates Mobility within pools Disaggregation lay sector {government/industry/education), dis- cipline {mechanical/electrical engineering), industry "auto/energy/ electronics), job function [research/manufacturing/design), geog- raphy, and race and sex. Major Driving Forces The engineering community as defined in this report is basically a robust system. It has experienced rapid growth in the past 10 years See Figure 5~. Large increases in demand, high economic growth, defense buildups, and demographic shifts have all been accommodated by the community in the past. [Market forces and other drivers of supply and demand are discussed in some detail in other reports of this overall study, particularly in the CLUE summary reports and in two other panel reports. The accommodations noted probably could be sup- ported again by the elastic supply of people who may be marginally qualified but are anxious to enter the engineering community in a proper allocation of job assignments. Another factor that has not as yet been accounted for quantitatively is the continuous productivity improvements resulting from new approaches and tools that engineering has at its disposal E.g., modeling and simulation replacing experimentation). If it is assumed that every job vacancy will eventually be filled by some person, the problem becomes one of quality and utilization instead of raw numbers. Of course, a real or perceived shortage of qualified engineers in any field could have a strong effect on growth and new ventures in that area. ~ With these considerations in mind, the driving forces that most affect the orderly flow of people through the engineering community can be identified. Demand-Side Forces Net New Demandfor Engineers The normal ebb and flow of busi- ness cycles, R&D activity, and growth or contraction in individual industries result in a net change in engineering jobs over a given mea

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 33 1500 TOTAL S&E ' s 1400 ~ in ENGINEERING \\\\\\ RESERVE \\\\\\ \\\\\\ l 200 . ~ ~T ~t , ' ' OTENGE] NEER) NG ago ~,574;.6 ~677.2 ~ + IECH SUPPORT 40 ~ :~:~d ~,~t'] 1 960 1 970 1 980 FIGURE 5 Scientists and engineers in the engineering work force (in thousands) for 1960, 1970, and 1980. SOURCE: Data from National Science Foundation, U. S. Scientists and Engineers: 1982. NSF 84-321 (Washington, D.C.: NSF, 1984~. suring period, assuming perfect mobility of engineers from one kind of work to another and from one part of the country to another. But would engineers displaced from the energy or steel industries in the Midwest move to the West Coast and be retrained for the electronics industry? Probably not, and to the extent that this kind of immobility is opera- tive, people from the engineer pool would enter the technical reserve stock, and the opening thus created would be filled by a new entrant into the engineering community or by an individual who was being

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34 INFR~STRCJCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING upgraded from the technologist/technician pool. Net new demand will vary considerably from year to year, but it is projected as an annual average of 45,000 persons per year from 1983 through 1995.9 Net New Demand for Technologists/Technicians The same fac- tors described above for engineers apply, with an important additional variable, to technologists and technicians. The amount of technical assistance required for engineering activities varies widely from field to field. The introduction of computers, robotics, and other high-technol- ogy devices can be expected to increase the demand for technicians and technologists in Virtually all industrial operations. The alternative to employing technicians and technologists for such technical assistance is to use engineers for this kind of work. However, this would result in severe underutilization and loss of productivity and could result in a reduction in the supply of engineers because of a perceived deteriora- tion in their work environment. Transfers Into the Staff Support Area A characteristic of engineers for law graduates is that a high proportion move into some manage- ment or staff function early in their careers. It is estimated that on the average about 60,000 people will leave the engineering pool annually between 1985 and 1995.9 If we make the assumptions that the graduate engineers in the pool perform better than the entrants from secondary sources and that "promotion" into management is based on previous performance, then engineering graduates will move into staff positions in higher proportions than will others in the pool. This creates addi- tional cause for concern about the quality of the engineers left in the pool. The high rate of transfer into staff support and management posi- tions is an important driving force that is deeply embedded in U.S. industry practice. A basic change in the financial and psychic reward systems would be required to retain more engineers in the engineer pool. This is highly unlikely and may not be desirable. Continuing education for those remaining in the pool can help offset any loss of high-quality performance capabilities. Demographics of the Engineer Population The high concentration of the general population in the age group above 50 years applies equally to engineers. is The age distribution is skewed further by the high num- ber of engineers entering the profession in the industrial boom follow- ing World War II. The result is that a disproportionate number of engineers in the engineer pool, as well as in the engineering faculty and staff support pools, will be leaving the engineering community through

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 35 retirement and death in the near future. More needs to be learned about this impending influence, which will surely intensify the faculty short- age problem and put pressure on the demand for new engineers both by depleting the engineer pool and by creating more "opportunities" in the staff support pool for those in the engineer pool. Supply-Side Forces The Number of Engineering Graduates There is little question that the preferred source for new entrants into the engineer pool is the recent graduate in engineering from a college or university. It is a char- acteristic of the system that the number of new job openings in engi- neering is equal to the supply of new graduate engineers, except in selected disciplines where there are shortages. Thus, the inflow from other sources, such as foreign-trained engineers, other scientists, and upgrades, is determined by the difference between demand and the size of the graduating class in engineering. The numbers of new engineers are affected by the demographics of college-age young people, by the proportion opting for engineering, and by the capacity of the engineer- ing schools as limited by facilities and faculty. The effect of a shortage of new graduates on the system can be very serious with respect to a single discipline. [For example, we may be entering a period when a shortage of electrical and computer engineers could substantially curtail the growth of so-called high-tech industries. ~ TheNumberofNewEngineeringFaculty The availability of a qual- if fed body of faculty is an important driving force in the dynamics of the engineering community. Faculty shortages can affect the supply of new graduates. The current much-pulalicized "shortage" of engineering fac- ulty is the result of convergent factors, several of which are portrayed in Figure 6 and noted below: The number of engineering Ph.D. degrees granted has not kept pace with growth in undergraduate degrees and the engineering work force in general. ~ ~ An increasing number of Ph.D. degrees are granted to foreign nationals who do not enter the U.S. work force. i2 The nature of industrial research is increasing the demand for engineering Ph.D.s in private sector research and development.~3 The age demographics of the present engineering faculty suggest an increase in the attrition rate over the next decade. ~ ~

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36 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING 3600 3430 3503 E ~ ~ ~ 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 YEARS U . S. 2514 2330 1752 1557 1261 1254 1 165 FOREIGN /STAYED 671 761 802 741 859 757 652 FOREIGN /LEFT 245 412 593 536 303 468 797 ~.\\\Ni FOREI ON /STAYED 1/ / /1 U. S. ~ FOREIGN /LEFT FIGURE 6 Ph.D. engineering degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and foreign nationals, 1970-1982. SOURCE: National Research Council, Summary Report 1982: Doctorate Recipients From United States Universities (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1983~. For the reasons stated above, the entry of new faculty into the pool is a crucial element. It would lee expected that the first effect of a faculty shortage would be lowered educational quality as a result of teaching overloads and large classes. To counter such problems, a majority of engineering departments are currently practicing some method for lim- iting enrollment. As would lee expected, the restrictions are most severe in the areas where demand for undergraduate engineers is the greatest currently, in electrical and computer engineering. Redirect- ing the faculty from disciplines of lesser demand to those in high demand is an approach that is not being given enough focus. The Foreign Student Population With 8 percent of l~achelor's degrees, 26 percent of master's degrees, and 39 percent of Ph.D. degrees in engineering currently being granted to noncitizens with temporary visas, i4 the impact of foreign students is obviously an important driv- ing force. The arguments for and against admission of foreign students into U.S. institutions are complex and cut across political, social, and

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 37 economic issues. An analysis of the merits of government and univer- sity policy in this area is beyond the scope of this study. From the standpoint of impact on the engineering community, the presence of foreign undergraduate students in U. S. engineering departments substantially increases the teaching load of the existing faculty resources; since domestic U.S. demand is generally being met by the avail- able supply, noncitizen B.S. graduates who do not remain in the United States represent either some measure of excess capacity or some mea- sure of excessive strain on existing capacity in the engineering educa- tion system; i5 the foreign graduate students at the M.S. and Ph.D. levels who do not elect to stay permanently in this country, while undoubtedly mak- ing important research contributions during their graduate work, reduce the flow of high-level talent into the U.S. engineering commu- nity, both as faculty and in practice. To illustrate the impact of foreign students, it is only necessary to consider the consequences of policies that would ~a) severely limit the admission of foreign students to the engineering curricula a signifi- cant increase in the number of U.S. engineering admissions and grad- uates would follow, but graduate schools would be hard pressed to function; IBM greatly relax immigration requirements for noncitizen engineers the supply to the engineering community at all graduate levels would be substantially increased, presumably also increasing research and teaching capability. At the same time, it could be argued that opportunities for U. S. citizens in the highly desirable field of engi- neering would be reduced, and that a serious "brain drain" could result in developing countries. Limitations of the Flow Diagrams The diagrams developed in this study are limited to flows of people who are full-time students or employees and to stocks that represent highly aggregated groups of people. To fully understand the compli- cated dynamics of the engineering system, further work needs to be done in several other areas that are noted briefly below. Part-Time Students In addition to the full-time students tracked in the diagrams, a large and presumably growing number of people are enrolled in courses for

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38 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING credit while still being employed. Included in this category are employ- ees attending a community college for entry into the technician pool, technicans and technologists trying to upgrade their status while work- ing, and engineers pursuing a master's or even a doctoral degree. Since the panel's diagrams are designed to be in numerical balance, it is not feasible to count the same person both as an employee and as a student. However, such additional education clearly implies both an increase in the quality of the work force and a driving force increasing the pool of highly educated engineers. Both of these effects are missed because it was not possible to account for these students. Internal Training Program s Very little is known about the extent of in-house education. Except for the possible additional value of the degree credential, continuing education through credit courses offers no more advantages than does internal training. Indeed, internal training often includes credit courses delivered at the job site, either in person or electronically. No appraisal of human capital in the engineering community can ignore the potential of retraining. Whenever a new engineering or technician position is created, the employer has a decision to make. He can "buy one" from an engineering school or "make one" from a known supply of raw material, a displaced or underutilized person in his own organi- zation. The cost, time required, and effectiveness of either alternative are the factors that must be considered. Mobility The weekly parade of technical employment advertising in Sunday newspapers, even in slow economic periods, attests to the importance of job mobility in the employment and utilization of engineers. Within each pool, there is continual movement. Most transactions may be assumed to be an improvement or placement for an unemployed person and therefore an improvement in utilization. However, against this must be counted the cost of obtaining and training a replacement. Though not much is known about the process, it is assumed that it is a "trickle-down" effect, with several transactions taking place in series and with a new entrant eventually coming in to fill the vacancy. The high mobility of the technical work force may be a major factor in the vitality of American industry, but the panel suspects the cost in money and productivity must be very high.

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FLOW DIAGRAMS OF THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY 39 Mobility is higher in certain geographical areas E.g., Silicon Valley than in others. The beneficial effects in terms of technology transfer must be correctly balanced by the cost and the human and family effects, as well as by the possible leakage of technical proprietary infor- mation. To the best of the panel's knowledge, no quantitative study has been made of this important social phenomenon. Notes 1. Simplified Model of the Engineering Infrastructure. SOURCE: Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer, Assembly of Engineering, National Research Council. The Education and Utilization of Engineers: Recommenda- tions for a Study ~Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1981~ . 2. Hypothetical Complete Model of Technical-Labor Supply and Demand ~Sche- matic~. SOURCE: Gregory A. Jackson and Robert W. Meuller, Jr. On Projection of Jobs for Scientists and Engineers. Prepared for the Commission on Human Resources, NationalResearch Council. Harvard University, December 1981. Supply/Demand and Model for Engineers. SOURCE: Robert P. Stambaugh, "Engi- neering Manpower Needs of Industry. " Presented at the Symposium on Engineer- ing Manpower and Education Needs of the 1980's, Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C., Janu- ary 1982. Occupational Labor Market Flows. SOURCE: National Science Foundation. Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview. NSF 80-316 ~Washington, D.C.:NSF, 1980~. Projected Engineering Manpower Transactions, Figure 1. SOURCE: William P. Upthegrove, Engineering Manpowerand Education: Foundation forFuture Com- petitiveness ~Washington, D.C.: Business-Higher Education Forum, October 1982~. Chart II-1 Schematic; C Diagram of the Science and Engineers DauffenBach/ Fiorito/Folk Labor Supply Model. SOURCE: Robert C. DauffenBach and Jack Fiorito, Projections of Supply of Scientists and Engineers to Meet Defense and Nondefense Requirements, 1981-87: A Report to the National Science Founda- tion. Contract No. SRS-8210548 ~Stillwater: Oklahoma State University, April 1983~. Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer. Engineering Educa- tion and Practice in the United States: Foundations of Our Techno-Economic Future ~Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1985). 8. Panel on Engineering Employment Characteristics. Engineering Employment Characteristics "Washington, D.C.: NationalAcademy Press, 1985~; Panelon Engineering in Society. Engineering in Society "Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 19851 9. Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Research Council. Labor-Market Conditions for Engineers: Is There a Shortage: Proceedings of a Symposium ~Washington, D. C .: National Academy Press, 1984 ~ . National Science Board. Science Indicators ~Washington, D.C.: National Science Foundation, published biennially .

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40 INFRASTRUCTURE DIAGRAMMING AND MODELING 11. Panel on Engineering Graduate Education and Research. Engineering Graduate Education andResearch (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1985~. 12. National Research Council. Summary Report 1982: Doctorate Recipients From United States Universities (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1983). 13. Engineeringin Society {see note 8 alcove). 14. Engineering Manpower Commission. 1983 Engineering and Technology Degrees (New York: EMC, 1984). 15. National Science Foundation. U.S. Scientists and Engineers: 1982. NSF 84-321 (Washington, D.C.: NSF, 1984).