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ENG - BERING EDUCATION AND PRACTICE IN THE UNITED STATES ~ . . ~ ng~neenng L~frastructure Diagrammang and Modeling Pane! on Engineering Infrastructure Diagramming and Mocleling Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer Commission on Engineering ant! Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1986

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS ~ 2101 Constitution Ave., NW . Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Insti- tute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the princi- pal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Acaclemy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. Support for this work has been provided by the National Science Foundation, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of the Army, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Navy, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Addi- tionally, assistance has been provided through grants from the Eastman Kodak Company, Exxon Corporation, the General Electric Company, the IBM Corporation, the Lockheed Corporation, the Monsanto Company, and the Sloan Foundation. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 85-63441 ISBN 0-309-03639-9 Printed in the United States of America

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Preface and Acknowledgments This report lay the Panel on Infrastructure Diagramming and Model- ing forms an integral part of the overall study loy the Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer, performed under the auspi- ces of the National Research Council. The most significant product of this panel's effort appears as Chapter 3 "Defining the Engineering Community" ~ in the full committee report. * The material included in this panel report, however, goes far beyond that found in Chapter 3 of the main committee report. In fact, the definition of the engineering enterprise in the United States, the identi- fication of its full infrastructure, and its subsequent description and analysis by diagramming and modeling were fundamental to much of the work of other panels and to that of the full committee. The defini- tions adopted lay the panel are controversial to some, in that they per- mit inclusion of practitioners who do not hold the academic or professional registration credentials deemed by many as essential to inclusion in the engineering fraternity. In adopting the definitions pre- sented, the panel made no value judgments as to the validity of creden- tials or the inclusion of "improperly" credentialed persons in the engineering community. Rather, the pane! was concerned with identi- fying all those engaged in or directly supporting the engineering enter *Engineering Education and Practice in the United States: Foundations of Our Techno- EconomicFuture "Washington, D.C.: NationalAcademy Press, 1985~. . . . 111

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1V PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS prise in the United States so that a complete and proper description and analysis of that enterprise was possible. The Panel on Infrastructure Diagramming and Modeling originally convened under the able leadership of Erich Bloch, now director of the National Science Foundation NSF). Most of the difficult research and analysis was performed under his guidance, as was the preparation of the initial draft report. When Mr. Bloch left the panel to assume his NSF duties, I was asked to guide completion of the report. I was able to do that only with the assistance of Arnold R. Eshoo of IBM and William H. Michael, Tr., overall staff director for the study. To both I owe a debt of gratitude. Also, on behalf of both Erich Bloch and myself, I want to thank and commend all the panel members and the staff for their out- standing efforts. It was a pleasure to work with such a fine group of professionals. We also extend our appreciation to many other individuals and their organizations for contributions to the panel's overall effort: to Bernard T. Cullen, consultant, McBer & Company; Alan Fechter, National Sci- ence Foundation and National Research Council; Daniel E. Hecker, Bureau of Labor Statistics {BLSJ; and Charles Falk, Michael Crowley, and Louis G. Mayfield of NSF. And finally we acknowledge the following individuals who made presentations to the panel {topic in parentheses following name): Alan Fechter, National Research Council (Ph. D. SupplyJ Robert C. DauffenBach, Oklahoma State University, and Tack Fiorito, University of Iowa {Mathematical Manpower Models) Patrick T. Sheridan, Engineering Manpower Commission (EMC Data BasesJ Daniel E. Hecker, Bureau of Labor Statistics GELS Data Basest Bernard I. Cullen, McBer ~ Company Overview of Scientific and Engineering Manpower Utilization Tesse Smith, College Placement Council (College Placement Coun- cil Activities) Eugene Seeloff, Lehigh University {Lehigh University Placement Activities) William K. LeBold, Purdue University, and Patrick T. Sheridan, Engi- neering Manpower Commission Trends in Engineering Enroll- ments and Degrees Granted P. H. Hubbard, American Electronics Association TEA Technical EmploymentProjections, 1983-1987~ Donald G. Weinert Acting Chairman

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Pane! on Infrastructure Diagramming and Modeling ERICH BLOCH, Chairman; Vice-President, IBM Corporation Now Director, National Science Foundation) KAREN C. COHEN, Principal Research Associate, Center for Advanced Engineering Study, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ARNOLD R. ESHOO, Program Manager, Technical Resource Statistics, Technical Personnel Development, IBM Corporation JOHN W. GEILS, Director, AAES/ASEE Faculty Shortage Project (AT&T, Ret. ~ DEAN GILLETTE, Executive Director, Corporate Studies, AT&T, Bell Laboratories {now Professor, Engineering Department, Harvey Mudd Colleges L. OWEN HILL, Manager, Site Resource Management, IBM East FishLill, Hopewell function, N.Y. WILLIAM K. LEBOLD, Director, Educational Research and Information Systems, Purdue University PATRICK J. SHERIDAN, Executive Director, EMC, American Association of Engineering Societies ROBERT P. STAMBAUGH, Consultant, Quechee, Vermont DONALD G. WEINERT, Executive Director, National Society of Professional Engineers MICHAELCROWLEY {;liaisonrepresentative~, Staff Associate, Division of Science Resource Studies, National Science Foundation DANIEL E. HECKER Liaison representatives, Office of Economic Growth and Employment, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Committee on the Education and Utilization of the Engineer 1ERRIERA. HADDAD, Chairman (IBM, Ret. ~ GEORGE S. ANSELL, Dean of Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Now President, Colorado School of Mines) JORDAN l. BARUCH, President, Tordan l. Baruch Associates ERICH BLOCH, Vice-President, IBM Corporation Now Director, National Science Foundation) DENNIS CHAMOT, Associate Director, Department for Professional Employees, AFL/CID EDMUND T. CRANCH, President, Worcester Polytechnic Institute DANIEL C. DRUCKER, Dean of Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana {now Graduate Research Professor of Engineering Sciences, University of Florida at Gainesville) FRED W. GARRY, Vice-President, Corporate Engineering and Manufacturing, General Electric Company JOHN W. GEILS, Director of ~ES/ASEE Faculty Shortage Project (AT&T, Ret. ~ AARON l. GELLMAN, President, Gellman Research Associates, Inc. HELEN GOULDNER, Dean, College of Arts and Science, Professor of Sociology, University of Delaware JOHN D. KEMPER, Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California at Davis EDWARD T. KIRKPATRICK, President, Wentworth Institute of Technology V1

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COMMITTEE MEMBERS ERNEST S. KUH, Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer V11 Science, University of California at Berkeley W. EDWARD LEAR, Executive Director, American Society for Engineering Education LAWRENCE M. MEAD, OR., Senior Management Consultant ~ Senior Vice-President, Ret. I, Grumman Aerospace Corporation M. EUGENE MERCHANT, Principal Scientist, Manufacturing Research, Cincinnati Milacron, Inc. {now Director, Advanced Manufacturing Research, Metcut Research Associates, Inc. J RICHARD l. REDPATH, Vice-President, Ralston Purina Company FRANCIS E. REESE, Senior Vice-President, Monsanto {now retired) ROBERT M. SAUNDERS, Professor, School of Engineering, University of California at Irvine {Chairman, Board of Governors, AAES, 19831 CHARLES E. SCHAFFNER, Executive Vice-President, Syska Hennessy JUDITH A. SCHWAN, Assistant Director, Research Labs, Eastman Kodak Company HAROLD T. SHAPIRO, President, University of Michigan MORRIS A. STEINBERG, Vice-President, Science, Lockheed Corporation DONALD G. WEINERT, Executive Director, National Society of Professional Engineers SHEILA E. WIDNALL, Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Staff WILLIAM H. MICHAEL, OR., Executive Director VERNON H. MILES, Staff Officer AMY TANIK, Administrative Assistant COURTLAND S. LEWIS, Consultant Government Liaison LEWIS G. MAYFIELD, Head, Office of Interdisciplinary Research, National Science Foundation

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Contents Executive Summary 1. Definition of Engineering Introduction, 9 Definitions, 10 2. Forces Affecting the Engineering Community External Influences, 13 Internal Factors, 15 Technology As a Driving Force for Change, 17 Expected Impact of Advances in Engineering and Technology, 18 Flow Diagrams of the Engineering Community Introduction, 21 Description of the Diagrams, 22 The Balance Equation, 28 Data Availability, 31 Major Driving Forces, 32 Limitations of the Flow Diagrams, 37 Notes, 39 1X 13 .. 21

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x 4. Modeling................ Need for and Use of Models, 41 Critique of Existing Models, 41 Developing the CLUE Simulation Model, 42 Results, Self-Critique, and Likely Extensions, 44 Notes, 46 Data Bases .................................. Overview of Data Bases, 47 Data Base Coverage, 55 Technical Characteristics, 59 Conclusions and Recommendations, 65 Notes, 66 Appendix A: The Definition of Engineering and of Engineers in Historical Context ...... Donald G. Weinert Appendix B: Trends in Engineering Enrollments and Degrees Grantec! ................. William K. LeBold and Patrick i. Sheridan Appendix C: Flow Diagrams CONTENTS ... 41 47 .. 80 . 108

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ENG - ~G EDUCA~` \~ PICKLE ~ ~ ~D SINS

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