Risk Assessment and Management at Deseret Chemical Depot and the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility

Committee on Review and Evaluation of the Army Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program

Board on Army Science and Technology

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
Risk Assessment and Management at Deseret Chemical Depot and the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Committee on Review and Evaluation of the Army Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program Board on Army Science and Technology Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

OCR for page R1
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This is a report of work supported by Contract DAAG55-97-C-0026 between the U.S. Army and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-05841-4 Limited copies are available from: Board on Army Science and Technology National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 202-334-3918 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

OCR for page R1
COMMITTEE ON REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF THE ARMY CHEMICAL STOCKPILE DISPOSAL PROGRAM RICHARD S. MAGEE (chair), New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark ELISABETH M. DRAKE (vice chair), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DENNIS C. BLEY, Buttonwood Consulting, Inc., Oakton, Virginia GENE H. DYER, consultant, San Rafael, California VINCENT E. FALTER, U.S. Army (retired), Springfield, Virginia J. ROBERT GIBSON, DuPont Agricultural Products, Wilmington, Delaware MICHAEL R. GREENBERG, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, Piscataway CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts DAVID S. KOSSON, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, Piscataway WALTER G. MAY, University of Illinois, Urbana ALVIN H. MUSHKATEL, Arizona State University, Tempe PETER J. NIEMIEC, Greenberg, Glusker, Fields, Claman & Machtinger LLP, Los Angeles, California GEORGE W. PARSHALL, DuPont Company (retired), Wilmington, Delaware WILLIAM TUMAS, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JYA-SYIN WU, Hughes Information Technology Systems, Fullerton, California Board on Army Science and Technology Liaison ROBERT A. BEAUDET, University of Southern California, Los Angeles Staff DONALD L. SIEBENALER, Study Director HARRISON T. PANNELLA, Consultant SHIREL R. SMITH, Senior Project Assistant

OCR for page R1
BOARD ON ARMY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY GENERAL GLENN K. OTIS (chair), U.S. Army (retired), Newport News, Virginia CHRISTOPHER C. GREEN (vice chair) General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan ROBERT A. BEAUDET, University of Southern California, Los Angeles GARY L. BARMAN, University of Wisconsin, Madison LAWRENCE J. DELANEY, BDM Europe, Berlin, Germany WILLIAM H. FORSTER, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Baltimore, Maryland ROBERT J. HEASTON, Guidance and Control Information Analysis Center (retired), Naperville, Illinois KATHRYN V. LOGAN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta THOMAS MCNAUGHER, RAND, Washington, D.C. NORMAN F. PARKER, Varian Associates (retired), Cardiff by the Sea, California STEWART D. PERSONICK, Bell Communications Research, Inc., Morristown, New Jersey MILLARD "FRANK" ROSE, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama HARVEY W. SCHADLER, General Electric, Schenectady, New York CLARENCE G. THORNTON, Army Research Laboratories (retired), Colts Neck, New Jersey JOHN D. VENABLES, Martin Marietta Laboratories (retired), Towson, Maryland ALLEN C. WARD, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Staff BRUCE A. BRAUN, Director MICHAEL A. CLARKE, Senior Program Officer ROBERT J. LOVE, Senior Program Officer DONALD L. SIEBENALER, Study Director MARGO L. FRANCESCO, Staff Associate ALVERA GIRCYS, Financial Assistant JACQUELINE CAMPBELL-JOHNSON, Senior Project Assistant CECELIA RAY, Senior Project Assistant SHIREL R. SMITH, Senior Project Assistant

OCR for page R1
Preface In 1985, Congress directed the U.S. Army to begin destroying the U.S. chemical agent and munitions stock-pile. In 1987, the Committee on Review and Evaluation of the Army Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (Stockpile Committee) was formed. Since that time, the committee has monitored the progress of the Army's Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP). Throughout the development of the CSDP, the Stockpile Committee has provided oversight, review, and comment on relevant issues, including the engineering, verification (or systemization), and operations, at both a prototype facility at Johnston Atoll, in the Pacific Ocean, and the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (TOCDF), in Utah, the first full-scale chemical agent disposal facility in the continental United States. Minimizing the risk to workers, the public, and the environment from the continued existence of the stock-pile and selecting safe and efficient means of disposal have been, and continue to be, the central themes of the Stockpile Committee's oversight role. Any attempt to minimize risk implies having confidence in the process used to assign values to various sources of risk (risk factors) and the methods used to analyze, compare, and use these factors in decision making. A comprehensive understanding of the full spectrum of risks is fundamental to sound risk management practices. With this in mind, the Stockpile Committee produced a letter report in 1993 calling on the Army to develop site-specific risk assessments as a way of refining the methodology and results of an earlier probabilistic risk assessment that supported the Army's Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement issued in 1988. As the CSDP has progressed, the Stockpile Committee has advised the Army on the need for up-to-date, state-of-the-art, site-specific risk assessments. The recent focus of this advice has centered on the Deseret Chemical Depot (formerly Tooele Army Depot, South), where about 45 percent of the U.S. chemical agent and munitions stockpile is stored, and on the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility, the associated disposal facility. The remainder of the stock-pile is distributed among seven continental U.S. storage sites and Johnston Atoll. The consensus of the Stockpile Committee is that a clear picture of various risk assessment and risk management activities for Deseret Chemical Depot and the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (DCD/TOCDF) has emerged and warrants comment on both the quality of the technical risk analyses and on the Army's integration of these assessments into a comprehensive risk management plan for the site. The risk management plan is the Army's framework for including considerations of risk in both site-specific and programmatic decisions. The committee's report is intended to facilitate understanding and to encourage public dialogue concerning the DCD/TOCDF and the Army's broader risk management program. In this report, the Stockpile Committee analyzes the chosen risk quantification methodologies and the plan by which the resultant risks are to be managed at the depot and in the disposal facility. Suggestions for improving the risk assessment/risk management process that may be applicable to other chemical storage sites and to the overall disposal program are also made. The committee greatly appreciates the support and assistance of National Research Council staff members Donald L. Siebenaler, Shirel R. Smith, and Carol R. Arenberg, as well as NRC consultant Harrison T. Pannella, in the production of this report. RICHARD S. MAGEE, CHAIR ELISABETH M. DRAKE, VICE CHAIR COMMITTEE ON REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF THE ARMY CHEMICAL STOCKPILE DISPOSAL PROGRAM

OCR for page R1
This page in the original is blank.

OCR for page R1
Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction and Background 8 Description of the Chemical Agent and Munitions Stockpile, 8 Call for Disposal, 8 Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program, 8 Chemical Weapons Convention, 9 Selection and Development of the Baseline Incineration System, 10 Historical Risk Assessment by the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program, 10 Role of the National Research Council, 10 Committee on Review and Evaluation of the Army Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program, 10 Composition of the Stockpile Committee, 12 Purpose of the Report, 12 2 Desert Chemical Depot/Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Site-Specific Risk Assessments 14 Overview, 14 Deseret Chemical Depot Stockpile, 14 Sources of Risk, 14 Risk Receptors, 16 Risk Measures, 16 Risk Mitigation, 16 Objectives and Scope of the DCD/TOCDF Risk Assessments, 16 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 17 Health Risk Assessment, 18 Approach and Methodology, 18 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 18 Health Risk Assessment, 22 Stockpile Committee Oversight, 22 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 23 Health Risk Assessment, 23

OCR for page R1
Additional Review of the Risk Assessments, 23 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 23 Health Risk Assessment, 25 Results, 25 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 25 Health Risk Assessment, 33 Keeping Assessments Current, 35 Quantitative Risk Assessment, 35 Health Risk Assessment, 36 Analyzing and Integrating Results, 36 3 Risk Management in the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program 39 Requirements for Risk Management at DCD/TOCDF, 39 Evolution of the Risk Management Program, 40 Current Status, 40 Further Development of the Draft Risk Management Policy Guide, 44 Applying Risk Assessment Results to Risk Management, 44 Example 1:The TOCDF Established Configuration, 44 Example 2:Carbon Filter System for the Pollution Abatement System, 48 4 Findings and Recommendations 50 Overview, 50 Findings, 51 Risk Assessments, 51 Risk Management, 51 Application of Change Policy to the PAS Carbon Filters, 52 Recommendations, 53 Risk Assessments, 53 Risk Management, 53 References 54 Appendices A Perspectives on Risk, Risk Assessment, and Risk Management 59 B Risk Assessment Expert Panel on the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Quantitative Risk Assessment 75 C Reports of the Committee on Review and Evaluation of the Army Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (Stockpile Committee) 78 D Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 79

OCR for page R1
List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes Figures ES-1 Schematic illustration of TOCDF risk elements, 2 ES-2 Contributors to the average public fatality risk from continued storage at DCD, 3 ES-3 Contributors to the average public fatality risk from processing at DCD and TOCDF, 3 ES-4 Comparison of public risks during processing at DCD and TOCDF, 4 ES-5 Contributors to the average risk of fatality to disposal-related workers at DCD and TOCDF, 4 1-1 Location and size (percentage of remaining stockpile) of eight continental U.S. storage sites, 9 2-1 Schematic illustration of risk elements at the TOCDF, 15 2-2 Overview of QRA process, 19 2-3 Rocket handling system fault trees for agent spilled during shear operation, 20 2-4 Contributors to the average public fatality risk from continued storage at DCD, 25 2-5 Public acute fatality risk of DCD stockpile storage over 7.1 years of disposal processing, 26 2-6 Radial polar grid of surrounding population, 27 2-7 Mean public acute fatality complementary cumulative distribution function for munition storage during the 7.1 years of disposal processing, by distance from DCD, 28 2-8 Comparison of public risks during processing at DCD and TOCDF, 29 2-9 Comparison of public risks during processing at DCD and TOCDF (logarithmic scale), 30 2-10 Contributors to the average public fatality risk from processing at DCD and TOCDF, 30 2-11 Contributors to the average risk of fatality to disposal-related workers at DCD and TOCDF, 31 2-12 Summary of mean public risk from storage and processing at DCD and TOCDF, 31 2-13 Public societal acute fatalities for all campaigns (TOCDF disposal processing), 32 2-14 Mean public acute fatality risk by distance from TOCDF during disposal processing, 33 2-15 Acute fatalities for other on-site workers at TOCDF from accidents during disposal processing, 34 3-1 PMCD's organizational elements directly related to risk management, 42 3-2 The change process, 43 A-1 Form of the results: scenario probability, 64 A-2 Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, 64 A-3 Risk profiles with the same expected risk, 67 A-4 Risk curve, 68 A-5 Form of the results: risk profiles, 69

OCR for page R1
Tables 2-1 Summary of the Human Health Risk—Overall Risk of Cancer for Combined TOCDF and CAMDS Disposal Operations, 35 2-2 Risks for an Individual Living 2 to 5 Kilometers from the TOCDF, 37 2-3 Expected Number of Fatalities (Societal Risk), 37 3-1 Issues and Factors in Assessing the Value of Change Options, 44 3-2 Activities by Risk Management Function, 45 3-3 PMCD Risk Management through Its Organizations and Functions, 45 A-1 Scenario List with Cumulative Probability, 68 Box 2-1 Individual Risk at DCD and the TOCDF in Perspective, 36

OCR for page R1
Acronyms APET accident progression event tree CAC Citizens Advisory Commission CAMDS Chemical Agent Munitions Disposal System CSDP Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program CSEPP Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program CWC Chemical Weapons Convention DCD Deseret Chemical Depot DSHW Division of Solid and Hazardous Waste (Utah) EG&G Edgerton, Germerhausen and Grier, Incorporated EPA Environmental Protection Agency FPEIS Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement GA nerve agent (Tabun) GB nerve agent (Sarin) H, HD, HT blister or mustard agents HRA health risk assessment JACADS Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System LPG liquid propane gas MPF metal parts furnace NRC National Research Council OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration OVT operational verification testing PAS pollution abatement system PFS PAS filter system PMCD Program Manager for Chemical Demilitarization POD process operational diagram QRA quantitative risk assessment RCRA Resource Conservation and Recovery Act SAIC Science Applications International Corporation TOCDF Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility VX nerve agent

OCR for page R1
This page in the original is blank.