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A New Science Strategy fo~- Space Astronomy and Astrophysics Task Group on Space Astronomy and Astrophysics Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics Space Studies Board Board on Physic s and Astronomy - Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communi- ties. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by Contracts NASW 4627 and NASW 96013 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclu- sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-05827-9 Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COVER: Cover designed by Penny E. Margolskee. Illustrations courtesy of the Space Science Telescope Institute. Copies of this report are available from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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TASK GROUP ON SPACE ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS Steering Group PATRICK THADDEUS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chair MARC DAVIS, University of California, Berkeley JONATHAN E. GRINDLAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics MICHAEL HAWSER, Space Telescope Science Institute RICHARD G. KRON, University of Chicago CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas, Austin Panel on Planets, Star Formation, and the Interstellar Medium CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley, Chair CHARLES A. BEICHMAN, California Institute of Technology/Jet Propulsion Laboratory LEO BLITZ, University of California, Berkeley JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago SUZAN EDWARDS, Smith College DAVID J. HOLLENBACH, NASA/Ames Research Center CHARLES J. LADA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics DOUGLAS N.C. LIN, University of California, Santa Cruz DAN McCAMMON, University of Wisconsin RICHARD A. McCRAY, University of Colorado, Boulder BLAIR D. SAVAGE, University of Wisconsin J. MICHAEL SHULL, University of Colorado, Boulder Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolution J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas, Austin, Chair ANDREA K. DUPREE, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics DAVID J. HELFAND, Columbia University STEVEN M. KAHN, Columbia University DAVID L. LAMBERT, University of Texas, Austin ROBERT D. MATHIEU, University of Wisconsin THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology ROBERT ROSNER, University of Chicago JEAN H. SWANK, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center PAULA SZKODY, University of Washington . . . ADZ

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Panel on Galaxies and Stellar Systems RICHARD G. KRON, University of Chicago, Chair JILL BECHTOLD, University of Arizona ARTHUR F. DAVIDSEN, Johns Hopkins University ALAN M. DRESSIER, Carnegie Observatories MARTIN ELVIS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics WENDY L. FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN P. HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics ROBERT C. KENNICUTT, University of Arizona JERRY E. NELSON, University of California, Santa Cruz B. TOM SOIFER, California Institute of Technology JAMES W. TRURAN, JR., University of Chicago C. MEGAN URRY, Space Telescope Science Institute Panel on Cosmology and Fundamental Physics MICHAEL HAWSER, Space Telescope Science Institute, Chair ELIHU BOLDT, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory PHIL LUBIN, University of California, Santa Barbara RICHARD F. MUSHOTZKY, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center ANTHONY C.S. READHEAD, California Institute of Technology BERNARD SADOULET, University of California, Berkeley DAVID N. SPERGEL, University of Maryland MICHAEL S. TURNER, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory RAINER WEISS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University Staff DAVID H. SMITH, Study Director ALTORIA B. ROSS, Senior Program Assistant SHOBITA PARTHASARATHY, Research Assistant STEPHANIE A. ROY, Research Assistant ELAINE HARRIS, Interim Program Assistant IV

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COMMITTEE ON ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS MARC DAVIS, University of California, Berkeley, Co-chair MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Co-chair LEO BLITZ, University of California, Berkeley ARTHUR F. DAVIDSEN, Johns Hopkins University WENDY L. FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories JONATHAN E. GRINDLAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JOHN P. HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics STEVEN M. KAHN, Columbia University KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory RICHARD A. McCRAY,* University of Colorado, Boulder ROBERT ROSNER, University of Chicago BERNARD SADOULET,* University of California, Berkeley MICHAEL S. TURNER, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer *Term ended in 1996. v

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CLAUDE R. CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University JAMES P. BAGIAN, Environmental Protection Agency DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Harvard University DONALD E. BROWNLEE, University of Washington JOHN J. DONEGAN, John Donegan Associates Inc. GERARD W. ELVERUM, JR., TRW ANTHONY W. ENGLAND, University of Michigan MARTIN E. GLICKSMAN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute RONALD GREELEY, Arizona State University BILL GREEN, former member, U.S. House of Representatives ANDREW H. KNOLL, Harvard University JANET G. LUHMANN, University of California, Berkeley ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire KENNETH H. NEALSON, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee MARY JANE OSBORN, University of Connecticut Health Center SIMON OSTRACH, Case Western Reserve University MORTON B. PANISH, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired) CARLE M. PIETERS, Brown University MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona JOHN A. SIMPSON, University of Chicago ROBERT E. WILLIAMS, Space Telescope Science Institute MARC S. ALLEN, Director Vl

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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY DAVID N. SCHRAMM, University of Chicago, Chair ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California, San Diego, Vice Chair IRA BERNSTEIN, Yale University PRAVEEN CHAUDHARI, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center STEVEN CHU, Stanford University JEROME I. FRIEDMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MARGARET GELLER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics IVAR GIAEVER, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute WILLIAM KLEMPERER, Harvard University AL NARATH, Lockheed Martin Corporation JOSEPH M. PROUD, Sudbury, Massachusetts ANTHONY C.S. READHEAD, California Institute of Technology ROBERT C. RICHARDSON, Cornell University R.G. HAMISH ROBERTSON, University of Washington J. ANTHONY TYSON, Lucent Technologies DAVID WILKINSON, Princeton University DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director vet

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Boulder, Co-chair PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania RONALD-G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University JOHN E. ESTES, University of California, Santa Barbara L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America Inc. JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Minnesota SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center CHARLES A. ZRAKET, MITRE Corporation (retired) NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director . . . vzz~

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Foreword In 1991 the National Research Council issued a detailed strategy for astronomy and astrophysics for the next decades prepared by a committee under the leadership of John Bahcall. Like previous decadal studies in this field, the report identified in priority order the most important scientific programs and projects for both ground- and space-based research. It recommended a single large initiative for space, the Space Infrared Telescope Facility, which now appears to be getting under way, albeit on a smaller scale than was originally envisaged. The Bahcall committee members recognized that preparations for any subsequent space missions would have to begin during the second half of the decade, before the next decadal study. They recommended a series of technology initiatives that could lead to definition of subsequent missions. Although changes in the budget and philosophy of NASA have occurred since 1991, the schedule of events remains approximately as they foresaw. The present report of the Task Group on Space Astronomy and Astrophysics, the Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics, and the Space Studies Board represents a mid-decadal review of the most important and timely priorities in space astrophysics for the early years of the next decade. The topics described here have a high potential for breathtaking discoveries that will excite both scientists and the public. As the Bahcall committee report did in 1991, this report also recognizes fiscal realities by making difficult choices among many excellent initiatives. It should inform NASA and its own advisory committees as they update the agency's strategic plan for space science. Claude R. Canizares, Chair Space Studies Board National Research Council, The Decade of Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1991

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 FRAMEWORK OF THIS STUDY Origin and Relationship to Decadal Surveys, 4 Relationship to the Space Studies Board's Other Space Science Strategies, 5 Approach to Prioritization, 5 Assumptions, 6 Related Concerns, 7 Organization of This Report, 8 References, 9 PLANETS, STAR FORMATION, AND THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM Key Themes, 10 Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems, 11 Formation of Stars from the Interstellar Medium, 13 Evolution of the Interstellar Medium in Galaxies, 16 Conclusions, 19 3 STARS AND STELLAR EVOLUTION Key Themes, 22 Life Cycles of Stars, 22 Origin of the Elements, 26 Behavior of Matter Under Extreme Conditions, 29 Stars as Probes: Measuring the Universe, 31 Conclusions, 33 GALAXIES AND STELLAR SYSTEMS Key Themes, 36 Development of Present-Day Structures, 36 Chemical Composition of the Universe, 38 Dark Matter, 40 Baryons Outside of Galaxies, 41 Xl 1 4 10 21 35

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. . X11 Supermassive Black Holes and Quasar Power Sources, 43 Conclusions, 46 5 COSMOLOGY AND FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICS Key Themes, 47 Origin and Evolution of the Universe, 47 Contents of the Universe, 51 New Astrophysical Windows and Cosmic Mysteries, 54 Conclusions, 57 6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS GLOSSARY CONTENTS 47 58 63