RESEARCH REQUIRED TO SUPPORT COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY MONITORING

Panel on Basic Research Requirements in Support of Comprehensive Test Ban Monitoring

Committee on Seismology

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

National Academy Press
Washington, D. C. 1997



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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring RESEARCH REQUIRED TO SUPPORT COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY MONITORING Panel on Basic Research Requirements in Support of Comprehensive Test Ban Monitoring Committee on Seismology Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D. C. 1997

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by Award No. PO-950011 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and Grant No. EAR-9526501 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Advanced Research Projects Agency (via the National Science Foundation). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-68150 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05826-0 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu The cover art was created by Carrie Mallory. The cover is an oil painting of a large valley near Wolfville, Nova Scotia. Ms. Mallory received her Bachelor of Fine Arts from the Cooper Union. She frequently exhibits at juried shows in Northern Virginia. She takes many of her themes from nature and has provided art for a number of NRC reports. Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring PANEL ON BASIC RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS IN SUPPORT OF COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN MONITORING THORNE LAY, Chair, University of California, Santa Cruz SUSAN L. BECK, University of Arizona, Tucson ALFRED BEDARD, Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN R. FILSON, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia WILLARD J. HANNON, Jr., Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California DONALD V. HELMBERGER, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena WILLIAM A. JESTER II, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park SHELDON LANDSBERGER, University of Illinois, Urbana PETER MIKHALEVSKY, Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, Virginia JOHN A. ORCUTT, University of California, La Jolla PAUL G. RICHARDS, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York ROBERT C. SPINDEL, University of Washington, Seattle BRIAN STUMP, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico RODNEY W. WHITAKER, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico Staff CHARLES MEADE, Study Director THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Senior Staff Officer VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY THOMAS H. JORDAN, Chair, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge RALPH ARCHULETA, University of California, Santa Barbara (appointed 3/20/97) SUSAN BECK, University of Arizona, Tucson (appointed, 3/20/97) STEVEN M. DAY, San Diego State University, California (term ended 12/31/96) THOMAS C. HANKS, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California CHARLES A. LANGSTON, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park (term ended 12/31/96) THORNE LAY, University of California, Santa Cruz STEWART A. LEVIN, Mobil Exploration & Production Technical Center, Dallas, Texas STEPHEN D. MALONE, University of Washington, Seattle T. GUY MASTERS, University of California, San Diego (appointed 3/20/97) JAMES R. RICE, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts PAUL G. SOMERVILLE, Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Pasadena, California ANNE M. TREHU, Oregon State University, Corvallis (term ended 12/31/96) JOHN E. VIDALE, University of California, Los Angeles Staff CHARLES MEADE, Senior Staff Officer VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES J. FREEMAN GILBERT, Chair, University of California, San Diego MARK P. CLOOS, University of Texas, Austin JOEL DARMSTADTER, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. KENNETH I. DAUGHERTY, E-Systems, Fairfax, Virginia NORMAN H. FOSTER, Independent Petroleum Geologist, Denver, Colorado CHARLES G. GROAT, University of Texas, El Paso DONALD C. HANEY, University of Kentucky, Lexington RAYMOND JEANLOZ, University of California, Berkeley SUSAN M. KIDWELL, University of Chicago, Illinois SUSAN KIEFFER, Kieffer & Woo, Inc., Palgrave, Ontario PHILIP E. LaMOREAUX, P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates, Inc., Tuscaloosa, Alabama SUSAN M. LANDON, Thomasson Partner Associates, Denver, Colorado J. BERNARD MINSTER, University of California, San Diego ALEXANDRA NAVROTSKY, Princeton University, New Jersey JILL D. PASTERIS, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri EDWARD C. ROY, Jr., Trinity University, San Antonio, Texas EDWARD M. STOLPER, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena MILTON H. WARD, Cyprus Amax Minerals Company, Englewood, California Staff CRAIG M. SCHIFFRIES, Director THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Associate Director WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer LALLY A. ANDERSON, Staff Associate VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chairman, University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University, California JUDITH E. McDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring Preface In 1995, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and the Air Force Phillips Laboratory requested a review of their seismic research programs in support of nuclear test verification efforts. For this task, the National Research Council's Committee on Seismology appointed a panel of 10 seismologists. At the group's first meeting, however, the sponsors described Department of Defense (DoD) proposals to eliminate the Air Force programs and to consolidate all of the DoD research efforts related to nuclear test monitoring. As described in this report, these proposals were approved and eventually implemented in fiscal year 1997, raising obvious difficulties for the work of the panel. The organizational changes at DoD occurred while the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was under negotiation in Geneva. To ensure compliance with the CTBT's ban on nuclear explosions, a global seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic, and radionuclide data collection system is to be deployed as part of an International Monitoring System (IMS). The United States has indicated that it would monitor international treaty compliance using these unclassified IMS data, together with additional National Technical Means (NTM). To meet this challenge, the newly created Nuclear Treaty Program Office (NTPO) within DoD plans to broaden the support for research in the Defense Department's treaty monitoring efforts. Recognizing that the National Research Council had already formed a panel with significant seismological expertise on nuclear monitoring. NTPO requested modifications to the ongoing Air Force study to consider a broader range of disciplines and research needs for CTBT verification. In response to this request, six panelists were added, two each from the fields of hydroacoustics, infrasound, and radionuclide monitoring, and the scope of the study was enlarged (see Appendix A). In all, the original and enlarged panel met five times over a period of 14 months between November 1995 and January 1997. In the course of its work, the panel received briefings from representatives of the following offices and agencies: Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Force Phillips Laboratory, Nuclear Treaty Program Office, Center for Monitoring Research, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (Department of Energy), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Air Resources Laboratory (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC). One of these briefings (AFTAC) was presented at the Secret level. In addition, some members of the panel attended classified on-site meetings at AFTAC to discuss national monitoring operations and research needs in the

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring fields of seismology, hydroacoustics, and radionuclides. The panel also received a tour and briefing on the operations at the Center for Monitoring Research. Throughout the study, the panel received valuable assistance from its liaison representatives: Stanley Dickinson (AFOSR), James Lewkowicz (Phillips Laboratory), Ralph Alewine (NTPO), Steve Bratt (NTPO), and David Russell† (AFTAC). In response to its charge, the panel's report describes the research needs and associated infrastructure needed to promote high-confidence monitoring of the CTBT by the United States. For this work, the panel relied on its expertise in the fields of seismology, hydroacoustics, infrasound, and radionuclides to analyze the role of each discipline alone and in conjunction with others in specific treaty monitoring capabilities. The report concludes that continued basic research will improve these capabilities, effectively lowering the threshold for CTBT compliance and eventually achieving U.S. monitoring goals. Developing synergies between monitoring technologies is important in this effort, but doing so will require a significant research program because data sets for most of the monitoring technologies have not been available in the past for small events in regions of interest. Throughout the report, the panel notes mechanisms to transition research results to monitoring operations. Such efforts will be essential for future improvements in monitoring capability. †   David Russell was a member of the original AFORSR-PL review panel. His participation was changed to liaison when the charge was enlarged by NTPO.

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION: THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY   7     1.1 Nuclear Testing Treaties   7     1.2 Requirement of Safeguards   9     1.3 Role of Science in Nuclear Test Treaty Monitoring   9     1.4 Monitoring Compliance with the CTBT   14     1.5 The International Monitoring System   16     1.6 U.S. Operations, Research, and Development Structures   20     1.7 Transitions in the U.S. Research Program   21 2   CTBT MONITORING TECHNICAL CHALLENGES THAT DRIVE RESEARCH   23     Introduction   23     2.1 Physical Phenomena: Source Excitation, Signal Propagation, and Recording   24     2.2 Functions of Monitoring Systems   30     2.3 Monitoring Infrastructure   46 3   MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES: RESEARCH PRIORITIES   49     Introduction   49     3.1 Seismology   49     3.2 Hydroacoustics   60     3.3 Infrasonics   65     3.4 Radionuclides   71     3.5 Other Technologies   78     3.6 Opportunities for New Monitoring Synergies   79     3.7 On-Site Inspection Methods   81

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Research Required to Support Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Monitoring 4   U.S. RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE   83     Introduction   83     4.1 Structure of Current DoD and DOE Programs   83     4.2 Research Program Balance   85     4.3 Coordination with Other National and International Efforts   86     4.4 Requirements for Long-Term Stability and Effectiveness   87 5   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   89     5.1 CTBT Monitoring Challenges   89     5.2 Recommendations   90     REFERENCES   97     APPENDIXES     A   STATEMENT OF TASK   101 B   RESEARCH SUPPORT HISTORY   103 C   SEISMIC EVENT LOCATION   107 D   SEISMIC MAGNITUDES AND SOURCE STRENGTHS   113 E   HYDROACOUSTICS   121 F   INFRASONICS   125 G   RADIONUCLIDE SOURCE TERM RANGES FOR DIFFERENT TEST SCENARIOS   131 H   ACRONYMS   137