Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project

Management, Science, and Goals

Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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--> Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project Management, Science, and Goals Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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--> NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order no. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency. International Standard Book Number 0-309-05845-7 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242; 202-334-3313 (in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area) Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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--> PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION ALBERT J. KAEHN, Jr., retired (formerly Brigadier General, U.S. Air Force) DONALD W. BAHR, retired (formerly with the General Electric Company) * JACK G. CALVERT, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado * ANTONY D. CLARKE, University of Hawaii, Honolulu WILLIAM E. COOPER, Michigan State University, East Lansing * DIETER H. EHHALT, Institut für Atmosphärische Chemie, Jülich, Germany * CLAIRE GRANIER, Université Paris, France; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado EDWARD GREITZER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES R. HOLTON, University of Washington, Seattle HAROLD S. JOHNSTON, University of California, Berkeley KONRAD MAUERSBERGER, Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik, Heidelberg, Germany MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York * RUTH A. RECK, Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois * W. GEORGE N. SLINN, Cascade Scientific Research Corporation, Richland, Washington * KNUT H. STAMNES, University of Alaska, Fairbanks YUK L. YUNG, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant *   Members of the subsonic/tropospheric working group

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--> BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology Corporation, Torrance, California SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder PETER M. BANKS, ERIM, Ann Arbor, Michigan LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany FRANCO EINAUDI, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI, The University of Iowa, Iowa City THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer ELLEN F. RICE, Reports Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant KELLY NORSINGLE, Senior Project Assistant TENECIA BROWN, Project Assistant DORIGEN FRIED, Summer Intern

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--> COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University, California JUDITH E. McDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN K. SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, Universtiy of Maryland, College Park Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Reports Officer JEANETTE SPOON, Acting Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Preface The Subsonic Assessment (SASS) project is the half of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) that is oriented toward the current and future fleets of subsonic aircraft flying in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. A component of the Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, SASS has the overall objective of developing an assessment that can answer the questions of how aircraft emissions and their subsequent products affect ozone, radiative forcing, and, ultimately, climate. Begun in late 1993, SASS collected data and developed models in 1994 and 1995, and undertook its first field campaign in 1996. A first project report was also issued in 1996; this panel has drawn heavily on that report in evaluating the progress of SASS. NASA's first assessment report on SASS is due to be published in mid-1997. The present review of SASS is the product of the NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN). PAEAN consists of sixteen people selected to provide expertise in relevant fields that include field observations, laboratory chemistry, atmospheric dynamics and modeling, aircraft engines, climate, and public policy. The charge from its NASA sponsor, AEAP, is to provide assessment of and guidance to AEAP by evaluating the appropriateness of AEAP's research plan, appraising the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, identifying key scientific uncertainties, and suggesting research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. The effects of the current subsonic fleet are of particular concern at the moment, and in this report (one of three in process) PAEAN has focused on how AEAP can most effectively increase understanding of the processes involved. Only issues relating to impacts on the upper troposphere have been addressed, however; possible

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--> impacts of the current fleet on the lower stratosphere will be discussed in a future review. This panel's report on SASS evaluates progress on each of the relevant project topics and makes specific recommendations for the next steps. It also presents two recommendations for more effective project management. PAEAN has met four times as a panel, and each of its working groups—supersonic/stratospheric, subsonic/tropospheric, and emissions—has met on its own. The tropospheric group put together the initial draft of this document, and we thank them for their efforts. We appreciate the skill and perseverance of our staff officer and editor, Ellen Rice, and the administrative support of Doris Bouadjemi. Last, we are grateful to the many people, both those involved with AEAP and those outside it, who through briefings and reports have kept us apprised of the progress of SASS and the science. ALBERT J. KAEHN, Jr. PAEAN CHAIR

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--> Contents     Executive Summary   1     Introduction   3     Atmospheric Effects   5     Ozone,   5     Aerosols,   7     Review of the SASS Questions and Responses   11     Near-Field Interactions,   11     Laboratory Studies,   13     Atmospheric Observations—Chemistry,   16     Atmospheric Observations—Radiative Processes,   19     Global Modeling,   21     Strategies, Priorities, and Principal Recommendations   25     References   29     Acronyms and Other Abbreviations   33

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