Preparing for the 2000 Census

Interim Report II

Andrew A. White and Keith F. Rust, Editors

Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methodologies

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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Preparing for the 2000 Census: Interim Report II Preparing for the 2000 Census Interim Report II Andrew A. White and Keith F. Rust, Editors Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methodologies Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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Preparing for the 2000 Census: Interim Report II NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This study was supported by Contract No. 50-YABC-5-66005 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Additional copies available from: Committee on National Statistics National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Preparing for the 2000 Census: Interim Report II PANEL ON ALTERNATIVE CENSUS METHODOLOGIES KEITH F. RUST (Chair), Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland RONALD F. ABLER, Association of American Geographers, Washington, D.C. ROBERT M. BELL, RAND, Santa Monica, California GORDON J. BRACKSTONE, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario JOHN L. CZAJKA, Mathematics Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. MICHEL A. LETTRE, Maryland Office of Planning, Baltimore D. BRUCE PETRIE, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario NATHANIEL SCHENKER, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles STANLEY K. SMITH, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, Gainesville LYNNE STOKES, Department of Management Science and Information Systems, University of Texas, Austin JAMES TRUSSELL, Office of Population Research, Princeton University ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School ANDREW A. WHITE, Study Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Program Officer AGNES E. GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant

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Preparing for the 2000 Census: Interim Report II COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair), National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University JOHN F. GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis JOEL B. GREENHOUSE, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University ERIC A. HANUSHEK, W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, Department of Economics, University of Rochester RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University JANET L. NORWOOD, Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of Washington PAUL ROSENBAUM, Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania KEITH F. RUST, Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis MIRON L. STRAF, Director

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Preparing for the 2000 Census: Interim Report II Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   3 2   Application of Sampling Procedures   6 3   Addresses Linked to Geography: Cornerstone of the 2000 Census   13 4   Improved Survey Methods: Making It Easier to Respond   24 5   Sampling for Nonresponse Follow-Up: Achieving Adequate Precision at Acceptable cost   30 6   Integrated Coverage Measurement: Tackling the Differential Undercount   46 7   Administrative Records: Looking to the Future   62     References   79     Appendix: Sampling in the 2000 Census: Interim Report I   85

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