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--> Defining a Decade Envisioning CSTB's Second 10 Years Proceedings of CSTB's 10th Anniversary Symposium May 16, 1996 — Washington, D.C. Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997
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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: This report derives from CSTB's core program, which was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by core funds of the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board. Core support for CSTB is provided by its public and private sponsors: the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Library of Medicine, National Science Foundation, Office of Naval Research, Apple Computer, Inc., AT&T Laboratories, Digital Equipment Corporation, Hewlett-Packard Company, Intel Corporation, Lucent Technologies, Inc., and Motorola, Inc. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the symposium presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. International Standard Book Number 0-309-05933-X Additional copies of this report are available from: Computer Science and Telecommunications Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 www2.nas.edu/cstbweb Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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--> CSTB'S 10TH ANNIVERSARY SYMPOSIUM PLANNING COMMITTEE MICHAEL L. DERTOUZOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology LEONARD KLEINROCK, University of California, Los Angeles JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University WILLIAM A. WULF, University of Virginia Staff MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director JEAN E. SMITH, Program Associate
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--> COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center JAMES CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable JEFF DOZIER, University of California at Santa Barbara A.G. FRASER, AT&T SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California at Berkeley JAMES GRAY, Microsoft Corporation BARBARA J. GROSZ, Harvard University PATRICK M. HANRAHAN, Stanford University JUDITH HEMPEL, University of California at San Francisco DEBORAH A. JOSEPH, University of Wisconsin BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA, University of Washington MICHAEL LESK, Bellcore DAVID LIDDLE, Interval Research BARBARA H. LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN MAJOR, QUALCOMM Incorporated DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT, University of California at Berkeley DONALD NORMAN, Hewlett-Packard Company RAYMOND OZZIE, Iris Associates, Incorporated DONALD SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Staff Officer JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Program Officer ALAN S. INOUYE, Program Office JON EISENBERG, Program Officer MARK E. BALKOVICH, Research Associate LESLIE M. WADE, Research Assistant LISA L. SHUM, Project Assistant SYNOD P. BOYD, Project Assistant
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--> COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corp., Co-chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America Inc. JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Minnesota SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center CHARLES A. ZRAKET, MITRE Corp. (retired) NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
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--> Preface As the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) approached its 10th anniversary in 1996, a number of current and former members began to entertain the idea of convening a special event to celebrate the occasion. Taking the lead were the first chair of CSTB, Joseph Traub; then chair, William Wulf; and former Board members Michael Dertouzos and Leonard Kleinrock. The planning committee expanded the customary afternoon open session of the Board's spring meeting into a one-day symposium on May 16 in Washington, D.C. Two goals were identified for the event: to celebrate 10 years of CSTB' s achievements and to begin to define its goals for the next decade. In order to involve as many CSTB alumni as possible, the committee enlisted many former Board and committee members as presenters. In addition, two panels were convened: one to address ways in which CSTB interacts with its sponsors and one to identify the emerging issues likely to be on CSTB's agenda during the next 10 years. To expand the audience for these exciting presentations and to broaden the discussions begun on May 16, 1996, the proceedings have been compiled. This volume represents the edited versions of the presentations, which were also reviewed by several CSTB alumni for accuracy and meaning. It reflects the events of a day that was characterized by thoughtful presentations and lively discussion. Although some speaker affiliations have changed since the symposium, in general, those in effect then are presented to preserve the context for the discussion. The groundwork was laid for setting CSTB's agenda for the next 10 years, opening the door for the Board's further thought and refinement over the following months. This publication is part of a body of publications produced by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board in its 11-year history. The Board, part of the National Research Council within the National Academy of Sciences, was established in 1986 to provide independent guidance to the federal government on technical and public policy issues in computing and communications. Composed of leaders from industry and academia, CSTB conducts studies that recommend actions by government, industry, and academic researchers on critical national issues. These studies, prepared by principals from the public and private sectors, provide a balanced perspective on the issues at hand. CSTB also provides a neutral meeting ground for the consideration and focusing of complex issues where resolution and action may be premature. It convenes invitational discussion sessions that bring together principals from the public and private sectors to share perspectives on all sides of an issue, ensuring that the debate is not dominated by the loudest voices. CSTB is grateful to the symposium presenters, moderators, and participants for their contributions. As always, special thanks go to CSTB's sponsors, whose ongoing support made this symposium possible. These
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--> include the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Library of Medicine, National Science Foundation, Office of Naval Research, Apple Computer Inc., AT&T Laboratories, Digital Equipment Corporation, Hewlett-Packard Company, Intel Corporation, Lucent Technologies Inc., and Motorola Inc. CSTB also wishes to thank SEMATECH for a contribution that helped to defray symposium costs. DAVID D. CLARK, CHAIR COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD
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--> Contents 1 From Infoware to Infowar Joseph F Traub 1 2 Linking The CSTB Community to the Federal Government: Expert Advice for Policymakers Michael R. Nelson (Moderator), David B. Nelson, Paul R. Young, and Howard Frank 8 3 The Global Diffusion of Computing: Issues in Development and Policy Seymour E. Goodman 18 4 Engines of Progress: Semiconductor Technology Trends and Issues William J. Spencer and Charles L. Seitz 22 5 Computing and Communications Unchained: The Virtual World Leonard Kleinrock and John Major 36 6 Picture This: The Changing World of Graphics Henry Fuchs, Donald P. Greenberg, and Andries van Dam 47 7 Computational Biology and the Cross-Disciplinary Challenges 53 Federal Research and Funding Policies Deborah A. Joseph Finding a Home in Academia Edward H. Shortliffe 8 Visions for the Future of the Fields David D. Clark (Moderator), Edward A. Feigenbaum, Juris Hartmanis, Robert W. Lucky, Robert M. Metcalfe, Raj Reddy, and Mary Shaw 63 9 Unique Challenges: Computing and Telecommunications in a Knowledge Economy Ellen M. Knapp 73
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--> 10 Ancient Humans in the Information Age Michael L. Dertouzos 83 Appendixes A Letter from Dr. Bruce Alberts, President, National Academy of Sciences 89 B Symposium Attendees 91 C Biographies of Presenters 96