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Summary and Discussion Researchers can best support Naval Special Warfare (NSW) by increasing the knowledge and understanding of the environment in which NSW personnel operate. Only through such research efforts can much-needed predictive models and observational techniques for the environment be developed. The environmental parameters that directly affect NSW operations are discussed in the NSW Mission Planning Guide or the Naval Oceano- graphic Office (NAVOCEANO) Special Tactical Oceanographic Information Chart (STOIC) included as Plate I. The symposium provided a unique opportunity for researchers to understand the impact of these environmental parameters on NSW operations, discuss the present capabilities to predict and observe these parameters, and explore future possibilities. In addition to identifying many specific research challenges, participants in the various working groups also discussed NSW personnel as potential users and collectors of environmental information. For example, as combat decision making is transferred farther forward and increasingly requires near-real time data processing, analysis, and synthesis (e.g. the Rapid Environmental Assessment loop diagrammed in Fig. 3-2), it follows that NSW personnel will require more thorough understanding of these processes. Similarly, SEALs and other NSW personnel (if properly trained ~ could make observations of important environmental variables at the spatial and temporal scales needed to parameterize boundary conditions and initial conditions for high-resolution models with very little sophisticated equipment. Indeed, by making these measurements a part of NSW training exercises now, it seems that a wealth of information from a variety of well-known coastal locations could be compiled in the near- term, which would rapidly advance understanding of littoral processes. It was not clear to the steering committee to what extent such education is presently incorporated into BUD/S training or what opportunities exist to incorporate greater education about relevant natural processes into what is already a very rigorous training regimen. Perhaps enhancing educational opportunities through a program of continued training within the NSW organization would be more practical. Table 5-1 summarizes the symposium committee's evaluation, based in part on symposium discussions, of the present, near-term, and far-term capabilities for reasonably delivering the type, accuracy, and lead time needed for each of the environmental parameters. Research capability implies a predictive model or a measurement method available to researchers but not yet used for Navy operations. Whether a capability could make the transition to operational use or how long that transition would take is not addressed. Instead, Table 5-1 lists research capabili- ties that are presently in place or will be in place within one year ("now"~; capabilities that can reasonably be 63

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64 OCEANOGRAPHY AND NAVAL SPECIAL WARFARE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES TABLE 5-1 Environmental Support Capabilities Current METOC Research Capability Research Research Capability Parameter To Support NSW Capability Now Capability Next Future Lunar illumination S S S S Water temperature Surface S S S S At depth I A A S Bathymetry Offshore A A S S Nearshore I I A Aa Waves A A S S Tides A A S S Cloud ceiling A A S S Bottom composition A A S S Surf A A A S Currents Offshore A A A S Nearshore I A A S Visibility A A A S Toxins, dangerous animals A A Ab Ab Lightning I A S S Internal waves I A S S Winds I A A S Precipitation (liquid) I A A S Water clarity (turbidity) I A A S HumidityC I A A S Biofouling I A A sb Beach trafficability I I Ab sb Bioluminescence I A A A Note: I = inadequate; A = adequate; S = satisfactory a = Mission specific; b = Not currently being pursued; c = Impact on communications as related to ducting or vulnerability. expected to be developed by researchers, for researchers, in two to three years ("next"~; and models and measure- ment capabilities that will be developed in three to five years or longer ("futures. The superscript "a" identifies scores that are mission and environment specific; for example, support may be adequate in some ocean environ- ments but not in others. For instance, the required resolution of bathymetry measurements for NSW support is different for platforms traveling across the inner shelf than it is for platforms crossing the surf zone. In the former scenario, the platform is affected by the presence of shoaling banks (scales of kilometers) that may modify local currents and wave heights. In the latter scenario, the platform is affected by the presence of sand bars and troughs (scales of several tens of meters) that may stop a boat abruptly in mid surf zone. Superscript "b" indicates research topics that do not appear to be pursued currently by ONR-funded scientists. The parameters assigned to the satisfactory category under future research capabilities shows the optimism of the symposium committee about research gains, given adequate effort. The minimal support historically given for research in direct support of NSW is evident in Table 5-1. Only the present capabilities to provide lunar luminescence and surface water temperature were obviously satisfactory for present NSW needs. The present capability to provide nine important parameters was seen as adequate but not optimal, and the present capability to provide twelve other parameters was seen as inadequate. In many instances, the knowledge or technologies needed to improve the METOC capability to provide needed information already exists. Table 5-2 provides information about the types of technologies that are or could be available to METOC

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SUMMARYAND DISCUSSION 65 personnel supporting NSW operations. This table, also organized by environmental parameter, lists the NSW platforms that are affected along with the NSW Mission Planning Guide's critical threshold value (above which a platform should not be used in the mission). Listed on Table 5-2 under the heading "Current METOC Capability to Support NSW" are technologies currently available to Navy METOC personnel to predict and observe each parameter. For instance, the METOC capability to provide surface water temperature seen as adequate to meet NSW needs (Table 5-1), is based on IR satellites and surface buoys. Alternatively, the current METOC capability for predicting and observing bioluminescence (coming from sparse, historical, climatological records) was viewed to be inadequate (Table 5-1~. The NSW-related research challenge is to identify deficiencies in the basic knowledge and address approaches that can build upon that knowledge to yield both improvements and new approaches to the prediction and observation of environmental parameters critical to NSW operations. IMPORTANT CHALLENGES NSW-related research challenges are formidable. NSW operations place spatially and temporally difficult demands on environmental models and observational systems. Models and observations that were successfully used in support of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations cannot be easily ported to support NSW operations. The problem is both one of scales and environmental complexity. NSW operations require environmental infor- mation on a local scale (resolution on the scale of hundreds of meters), through many different types of environ- ments (shelf, inner shelf, nearshore, inlet, harbors, rivers). In addition, for mission planning purposes, the environmental parameters need to be predicted five to seven days in advance. In many situations, the choice of infiltration and exfiltration routes and platforms cannot change hours or even days before deployment. The Navy has acknowledged that new, creative approaches to collecting, assilimating, and providing environ- mental information should be considered if NSW is to be adequately supported. The complexity of the environ- ment, the required resolution of information, and the demand of the mission timeline make it impossible for most parameters to be predicted or modeled using a single approach. Leaders of the METOC community recognize the need to develop and deploy hybrid platforms with different types of sensors for local and regional observations. As envisioned, these platforms would use model results to improve their sensing of the environment and the models will need to use the platform data to improve their predictions. Fortunately, many of NSW needs appear to be shared by other communities within the operational Navy. For example, previous symposia in this series have identified a need for enhanced capabilities to predict coastal conditions such as clouds and visibility, humid- ity, and nearshore sea state for strike warfare (NRC 1992, 1996) and a greater understanding of littoral processes for coastal ASW and amphibious operations (NRC 1992, 1994~. These common needs suggest that by supporting basic and applied research in a number of areas relevant to NSW, enhanced capabilities could be achieved that would benefit a wide spectrum of end users within the Fleet. Listed under the research capabilities (now, next, and future) in Table 5-2 are the types of technology that the committee believes, based on the symposium discussions and their own experience, are presently available to researchers, or that will be available to researchers in two to three years, or in three to five years or longer. This table provides an educated guess as to how research may evolve. The outlook is promising. However, how well the NSW challenge is met will depend on the Navy's focus and the researcher's appreciation and understanding of that focus.

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66 OCEANOGRAPHY AND NAVAL SPECIAL WARFARE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES TABLE 5.2 Mission-Sensitive Environmental Parameters Current METOC Capability Parameter Platform (mission critical threshold) To Support NSW Bathymetry Pervasive Databases Charts Echo-sounders Hydro recon Airborne laser (LABS) AUV side-scan (soon) Bioluminescence SDV, swimmers Sparse climatology (10-ft in water visibility, in ambient light) Currents SDV (>2.5 kt) Tide Charts Swimmers (>1 kt) X-T surf-zone long-shore currents (Surf Manual) Feature tracking of SAT images Coastal models Waves and surf SDV (>3 It) Global WAM CRRC, parachute (>4 It) Regional WAM Swimmer (>5 It) Laser wave heights (airborne) MATC, PBL, PER (>6 It) Breaker type (Surf Manual) RIBS, PB, HSB, MK V (>10 It) SAT wave-height fields (>10 km PC (>8-12 It) scales) SAT wave-directions (deep wtr) SAT surf-zone patterns Tides SDV (>2 It range, if LW depth <8 It Tide charts X-T models Expendable tide gauge (soon) Water temperature SDV, swimmer (<600 F) SAT IR (surface) Tailored, local summaries (based on models, data, etc.) XBT Sensors on operational platforms Drifting buoys Winds Parachute (>13-40 kts, height NORAPS/AMPS dependent) Mobile teams PB, MATC, PBL, PER, RIBS, PC, SAT winds (clouds, SSMI) MK V (>35 kts) T-DROP (soon) AEGIS Tactical Wx Radar (soon) Precipitation (liquid) Parachute (>0.1 inch per hour) NOGAPS/AMPS Direct observations Weather radars AEGIS Tactical Wx Radar (soon)

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SUMMARYAND DISCUSSION 67 Research Capability Now Research Capability Next Research Capability Future Jet skis AUV sensing HIDEX (also at NAVOCEANO) Direct measurements of emission HE radar (shore) Drifters Moored Doppler X-T nearshore models over complex bathymetry REF/DIF Expendable pitch-roll buoys TOPEX-based offshore models X-Y-T nearshore models driven by offshore Hyperspectral inversion of depths Wave celerity-based inversions SAR-pattern based inversions U/W rem sensing (i.e., BPS) Short-term temporal predictability AUV sensors Interferometric SAR HE radar (ships) VHF radar AUV survey Extended feature tracking (e.g., ARGUS, SATs) U/W rem sensing (i.e., BPS) Data assimilation X-Y-T nearshore models Bousinesq models Data assimilation X-Y-Z-T nearshore models driven by offshore Photo-grammetric interpretation of Imagery Data-fused celerity-based inversions SAT versions of airborne methods Spatial predictability AUV networks Hi-res littoral models Hi-res direct measurements X-Y-Z-T nearshore models Combined air-sea-waves models (currents, waves) Hi-res littoral models Hi-res littoral models Coastal circulation models Closer-to-shore models Hi-res littoral models Small temp sensors AAV IR AUV networks Airborne IR Subsurface inferences from SAT AUV sensors based data fusion NSCAT directional winds Drifters w/wind Higher resolution, but local coverage On-site hi-res sensors COAMPS, ETA, MM5, etc. (coupled SAT polarmetric winds air-sea models) Patterns from SAR AEGIS radar TRMM Hi-res models, assimilating AEGIS extensions SAT and radar improvements COAMPS, ETA, MM5, etc. (coupled air-sea models) (continuedJ

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68 TABLE 5.2 Continued OCEANOGRAPHY AND NAVAL SPECIAL WARFARE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES Parameter Platform (mission critical threshold) Current METOC Capability To Support NSW Thunderstorms and lightning Visibility Cloud ceiling Internal waves Water clarity (turbidity) Lunar illumination Humidity Bottom composition Beach trafficability Biofouling Toxins, dangerous marine organisms Parachute (closer than 1 mi) Parachute (<3 nmi horizontally) Mission accomplishment (e.g., target lasing) Parachute (variable needs; aircraft height dependent) SDV (existence in operational area) SDV, swimmer (>10 It visibility from surface, in ambient light) SDV, CRRC, swimmer (full moon, clear sky) CRRC (surface ducts for E-M) SDV Mission related Mission related Mission related SDV, swimmers (not known) Direct observations (EM, visible) Vis/aerosol models Direct observations (instrument, eye) Laser ceilometer NO GAPS/AMPS None Climatology Expendable k-meter (XKT) Ephemeris SAT cloud observations T-DROP NO GAPS/AMPS SAT water vapor COAMPS (soon) Sparse climatology Geological inferences In situ observations Sparse climatology Geological inferences In situ & remote observations (SAT) USMC/USA expertise/input Sparse climatology Climatology for some regions NOTE: AAV = autonomous airborne vehicle; AUV = autonomous underwater vehicle; BPS = Beach Probing System; COAMPS = coupled ocean-atmosphere model; CRRC = Combat Rubber Raiding Craft; EM = electromagnetic; EOS = Earth Observing System; HE = high frequency; HIDEX = High-Intake Defined Excitation System; HSB = High Speed Boat; IR = infrared; LABS = Laser Airborne Bathymetry System; LW = low water; MATC = Mini-Armored Troop Carrier; NAVOCEANO = Naval Oceanographic Office; NOGAPS/AMPS = Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System; NORAPS/AMPS = Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System;

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SUMMARYAND DISCUSSION 69 Research Capability Now Research Capability Next Research Capability Future None None EOS lightning sensors Laser refractometers, transmissometers Improved visibility models Hi-res littoral models None COAMPS, ETA, MMT, etc. Coupled None air-sea models) In situ or remote measurements Regional databases Regional prediction models Statistical climatologies X-Y-Z-T generation models Hi-res littoral models X-Z-T generation models Ocean color (rem sensing) AAV hyperspectral SAT hyperspectral In situ transmissometer (moored, AUV transmissometer Hi-res littoral models profiled) AUV networks Same Same Same Hi-res radiosondes COAMPS Hi-res models, assimilating Advanced SAT sensors, for model assimilation Direct measurement Inferences from fused geological and Predictive models Acoustic inversions other data (acoustic, multi-spectral) AUV-based acoustic inversions Acoustic inversions from operational Data fusion and inversion platforms Airborne observations Inferences from fused geological and Inferences from SAT/airborne SAR, other data (EM, SAR, multi-spectral) hyper-spectral sensing, etc., fused with Geological inferences fused with geological, and oceanographic nearshore oceanographic climatology information Expert system for estimates, inferences Direct measurement Tailored estimates from ambient con- Expert system for estimates, inferences Uncollated data ditions Collated data Direct measurement Tailored estimates from ambient con- Expert system for estimates, inferences Uncollated data ditions Mitigation strategies Collated data NS CAT = NASA Scatterometer; PB = Patrol Boat; PBL = Light Patrol Boat; PER = River Patrol Boat; PC = Patrol Craft; REF/DIF = refraction and/or diffraction; RIBS = Rigid-Hull Inflatable Boats; SAR = synthetic aperture radar; SAT = satellite; SDV = SEAL Delivery Vehicle; SSMI = Special Sensor Microwave Imagers; TOPEX = Ocean Surface Topography Experiment; TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measur- ing Mission; T-DROP = Tactical Dropsond; USA = U.S. Army; USMC = U.S. Marine Corps; U/W = underwater; VHF = very high frequency; WAM = Wave Model; XBT = expendable bathythermograph