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A Story of Nealect Daniel B. Levine, Kenneth Hill, and Robert Warren, editors Pane} on Immigration Statistics Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1985

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. This report was prepared for the Immigration and Naturalization Service, U. S. Department of Justice, under contract number COW-2-90530. Points of view or opinions stated in this document are those of the contractor and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the Immigration and Naturalization Service or the U.S. Department of Justice. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 85-61694 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03589-9 First Printing, June 1985 Second Printing, April 1986 Printed in the United States of America

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Pane] on Immigration Statistics BURTON H. SINGER (Chair), Department of Statistics, Columbia University SAM BERNSEN, Fragomen, De! Rey and Bernsen, Washington, D. C. GEORGE BOR]AS, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara NORMAN CHERVANY, Department of Management Sciences, University of Minnesota CHARLES KEELY, Population Council, New York ELLEN KRALY, Department of Geography, Colgate University MILTON MORRIS, Joint Center for Political Studies, Washington, D.C. ALEJANDRO PORTES, Department of Sociology, Johns Hopkins University JACK ROSENTHAL, The New York Times, New York MARK ROSENZWEIG, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota TERESA SULLIVAN, Department of Sociology, University of Texas MARTA TIENDA, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin JAMES TRUSSELL, Office of Population Research, Princeton University KENNETH WACHTER, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley DANIEL B. LEVINE, Study Director KENNETH HILL, Associate Study Director ROBERT WARREN, Research Associate ROBERTA PIROSKO, Administrative Secretary/Research Aide . . .

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Committee on National Statistics LINCOLN E. MOSES (Chair), Department of Statistics, Stanford University LEO BREIMAN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley JOEL E. COHEN, Laboratory of Populations, The Rockefeller University WAYNE A. FULLER, Department of Statistics, lowa State University SEYMOUR GEISSER, School of Statistics, University of Minnesota F. THOMAS JUSTER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan JANE A. MENKEN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University JOHN W. PRATT, Graduate School of Business, Harvard University S. JAMES PRESS, Department of Statistics, University of California, Riverside CHRISTOPHER A. SIMS, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota BURTON H. SINGER, Department of Statistics, Columbia University COURTENAY M. SLATER, CEC Associates, Washington, D. C. JUDITH M. TANUR, Department of Sociology, State University of New York, Stony Brook DAVID L. WALLACE, Department of Statistics, University of Chicago EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Executive Director MIRON L. STRAP, Research Director MICHELE W. ZINN, Administrative Associate 1V

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Contents Acknowledgments 1 Overview and Major Recommendations 2 Immigration Policy: Past to Present . . V11 1 13 3 Needs for Statistics on Immigration 26 4 The Immigration and Naturalization Service 5 Other Government Sources of Information on Immigration Bureau of Consular Affairs, 74 U.S. Department of Labor, 76 Bureau of Refugee Programs, 79 Office of Refugee Resettlement, 81 Bureau of the Census, 81 Transportation Systems Center, SS Social Security Administration, 92 National Center for Health Statistics, 95 Customs Service, 97 6 The Role of Nongovernmental Activities in Immigration Studies 7 Collecting Data on Refugees and Asylees: An Illustration of a Complex Process . . . 35 74 ....... 101 110 Data Gaps and Ways to Fill Them 126 9 Recommendations Glossary APPENDIXES A Selected Forms 143 149 v 159

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B Some Methodological Issues in Analyzing Data on Immigration ..... Indirect Approaches to Assessing Stocks and Flows of Migrants, 205 Kenneth Hill Illegal Aliens: An Assessment, 225 Kenneth Hill The Imputation and Treatment of Missing Data, 251 Kenneth Wachter C The Settlement Process Among Mexican Migrants to the United States: New Methods and Findings ......................... Douglas S. Massey D A Review of Statistical Aspects Contained Within Pending Immigration Legislation: A Letter Report to the INS, May 1983 ...... E A Summary of Pane} Activities F Bibliographic Sources of Information G Biographical Sketches of Pane} Members and Staff V1 . l .. 203 255 . ... 293 301 ..... 304 .. 325

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Acknowledgments Many people contributed time and expertise to make this study possible, and we are most appreciative of their cooperation and help. In particular, staff of the Immigration and Naturalization Service at every level from headquarters through regional, district, and Border Patrol offices to data processing facilities and individual ports of entry cooperated with and contributed to the pane] and its deliberations with admirable candor. Lisa Roney deserves special thanks for her tireless efforts in opening doors and directing us to the appropriate people in the service. Her advice, criticism, and suggestions over the past two years have been invaluable. Our work on refugees has depended entirely on the advice, encouragement, and work of Susan Forbes of the Refugee Policy Group and Linda Gordon of the Office of Refugee Resettlement. In particular, Linda Gordon's contributions to the panel's deliberations have been so extensive that she should in every way be viewed as equivalent to a panel member. Our report also benefited from the thoughtful comments of the many reviewers within the Academy and from the reorganization and editing by Eugenia Grohman, associ- ate director for reports, and Christine L. McShane, editor, of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. ~ also wish to express my appreciation to my fellow panel members for their generous contribution of time and expert knowledge and for their insights and ideas, all of which helped to shape and are reflected in this report. Finally, it is well known that behind every pane} of the National Research Council, there is a staff that oversees the preparation of a final report. in this instance, the staff, consisting of Daniel Levine as study director in collaboration with Ken Hill, Bob Warren, and Roberta Pirosko, have done much more than simply oversee the preparation of a report. They have provided an example of excellence in research, writing, politics, and administrative organization that is unsurpassed in my experience. The pane} and all those who benefit from this report are deeply indebted to this outstanding team. Burton H. Singer, Chair Panel on Immigration Statistics . . V11

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