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6 Land-Use/Land-Cover and Population Dynamics, Nang Rong, Thailand Barbara Entwisle, Stephen ]. Walsh, Ronald R. Rindfuss, and Aphichat Chamratrithirong This chapter describes ongoing research in Nang Rong, Thailand that joins social, biophysical, and spatial perspectives, data, and tools to study population and environment there. To date, this research has addressed two sets of ques- tions: . Did land use/land cover in the 1970s and early 1980s affect the subse- quent out-migration of young adults (Rindfuss et al., 1996a)? More specifically, did the availability of relatively undeveloped forested land close to villages act as a brake on out-migration that otherwise would have occurred? Did fragmentation of land use and potential competition from residents of other nearby villages have an effect? Did population change between 1984 and 1994 including rates of growth (or decline), household formation, and net in- and out-migration affect land use/land cover in 1994 (Walsh et al., in press; Entwisle et al., 1997b)? If so, what was the nature of these effects? The purpose of this chapter is to use our research experience to consider the challenges of the multidisciplinary and integrative approach we have taken. Ac- cordingly, we discuss the history of our projects, the intensive focus on a rela- tively small geographic area, the development of a prospective multilevel survey- based social data set, the creation of a complementary satellite time series, the choice of villages as the primary link between data sources, and other issues of scale compatibility. 12

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22 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND NANG RONG, THAILAND: LABORATORY FOR STUDY Nang Rong district, Thailand occupies approximately 1300 km2 in the south- ern part of the Korat Plateau in Buriram Province in the Northeast of the country (see Figure 6-1~. The idea that this relatively small geographical area (approxi- mately the size of a U.S. county) should be the focus for intensive study over a broad range of interrelated topics is key to our work. The "laboratory" approach has been used quite successfully by others interested in social change (for ex- ample, the Middletown studies [e.g., Caplow et al., 19821) or demographic change (for example, the Matlab project [Phillips et al., 19881), although it is the excep- tion rather than the rule in social demographic research. Our goal is a compre- hensive account of social, economic, demographic, and environmental change within Nang Rong district. Our approach is cumulative. One element at a time, we have built a database integrating diverse sources (social surveys, administra- tive data, map products, remote imagery) that is substantively broad, includes multiple levels of observation, and is unusual in its temporal depth. This data- base is continually expanding as new sources are identified and new data ac- quired. In parallel fashion, the knowledge base is also in a state of continual expansion, as each study builds on preceding ones. We believe the laboratory approach has much to offer for the study of population and environment. Why was Nang Rong selected? The origins of our projects lie in a develop- ment project and in data collection to evaluate its impact. In 1984, the Population and Community Development Association (PDA) began a Community-Based Integrated Rural Development (CBIRD) project in selected villages in the dis- trict. The CBIRD project was designed to (1) improve skills and productive capacity in agriculture, animal husbandry, and cottage industry, and (2) upgrade waste disposal facilities, increase year-round availability of clear water, and pro mote improved individual health care practices. Nang Rong was selected be- cause it was (and is) a relatively poor district in an historically poor region of Thailand. "Nan" Rong" means "sit and cry." The CBIRD project and associated data collection provided the base for our projects, but what sustained our interest was the multifaceted nature of change under way in Nang Rong district. The past few decades have witnessed a major fertility decline, increased use of contraception, electrification, the extension and improvement of the road network, increasing frequency of bus service, more widespread use of tractors (mostly "walking tractors") for land preparation, an increase in the number of mechanized rice mills, and improvements in sanitation and water storage. Initially, we were interested in contraceptive choice within a changing environment; we later expanded our scope to consider migration and fertility in the context of change. With the broadening of our substantive inter- ests, along with additional data collection (described below), the work that began as an evaluation of the CBIRD project grew until Nang Rong became a laboratory for the study of social and demographic change.

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BARBARA ENTVEISLE ET AL. . MYANMAR ,~ ~LAOS ~0 '\ .~.2',.:;. -,i.:.,2;';~,.: :.:.:..-.-, ~;~ It I; :. ~ , ~ ~ i i. : -34ndaman .. ~ ., . . . ~ ~ ,. . ~ :~ - Sea ~ , 123 VIETNAM ~ -- ~'fentian^e\ THAILAND ,Bangkok :7 ~ ~. ~:'~.-~ . ~ So {.- ~.~,-,.,~.',.-.:,, f'~::':':~:'~'~"-' ~'-~.,--.:.- \~ ~ ~ ~ .~6 ~ -; ~-~ ; ~\,;-. -,~11. ~. ,, ; ~- ~ .~''~. i''' ~ \,-' Rong ~ ~ .~4 ) CAMBODIA ~ ,~1 .Phnom Penh _^,,f >~ ':''; At, :~ ~ MALAYSIA-\ ~ FIGURE 6-1 Location of Nang Rong study area. a,. ~-

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24 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND Given the concept of Nang Rong as a laboratory, extending our work to include environmental concerns was a natural step. The area that makes up the district is noted for its undulating landscape; in the lower parts there is paddy land, and in the higher parts open-canopy forest and upland for dry field crops (Fukui, 1993~. As with the Northeast as a whole, the region is composed of Cretaceous sandstone, shale, and siltstone overlaid with Tertiary and Quaternary alluvial deposits that have been eroded to form a succession of low-lying terraces (Pendleton, 1963; Donner,1978~. As is typical of the Korat Plateau, the soils are dominated by fine sandy loams that form one of the most infertile soil groups in Thailand. Cultivation of wet rice occurs in shallow depressions, low terraces, and alluvial plains, while dry dipterocarp savanna forests or drought-resistant crops are grown on the upland sites (Parnwell,1988~. Annual rainfall is low, leading to low rice yields and interannual instability (Limpinuntana et al., 1982; Fukui, 1993~. Precipitation is also variable. While nearly 80 percent of the annual total falls within a 5-month period from May to September, the rains may arrive in early March or well into June or July. September may be a dry month, or it may be so wet that extensive flooding occurs. Droughts are not uncommon in the middle of the rice-growing season, June to September. Precipitation extremes are the rule rather than the exception in Nang Rong. Major changes in land use have occurred over the past several decades, paralleling social, economic, and demographic change. Agricultural productivity grew rapidly between 1960 and 1980, mostly because of the rapid extensification of agricultural land into formerly forested and upland areas (Siamwalla et al., 1990~. In the Northeast as a whole, 60 percent of the land was forested in 1960, but only 15 percent in 1982 (Panayotou and Sungsuwan, 1989~. Cropping pat- terns also changed. Marginal lands were cleared initially to grow cassava, ex- ported to Europe as a calorie rich ingredient for livestock feed (Phantumvanit and Sathirathai, 1988~. In recent years, extensification has slowed as a result of preventive deforestation policies, demands for surplus labor in the rapidly grow- ing manufacturing and urban sectors (Tambunlertchai, 1990), and the availability of only marginal lands for further agricultural expansion. The interaction of population and environment through forces within and exogenous to the region has created a dynamic landscape mosaic. Nang Rong thus offers an important context in which to study interrelation- ships between population and environment, and the already existing data and knowledge base helped justify the considerable additional investment required to establish a geographic information system (GIS), acquire and process remote imagery, and integrate social survey and remotely sensed data in analyses of population change and land use/land cover. PROJECT HISTORY In the fall of 1992, we collaborated on our first grant proposal, submitted to

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BARBARA ENTWISLE ET AL. 125 the National Science Foundation (NSF), to integrate spatial data, methods, and perspectives into ongoing social and demographic research in Nang Rong. Sara R. Curran, now of Princeton University, contributed importantly to this effort. With NSF funds, we accomplished several important goals. First, we developed the basic elements of a GIS to link spatial and social survey data. Second, we purchased, processed, and evaluated five frames of Landsat satellite data from the 1970s. Details are given below, but for purposes of describing the project his- tory, suffice it to say that the satellite data provided an initial look at land use/land cover in the district, showing, for example, the dominance of rice cultivation, spatial variability in crop mix and landscape pattern, and change over time. The promise of Nang Rong as a site for research on population and environment was thus borne out in the initial remotely sensed data. Third, and more substantively, we initiated a study of out-migration in relation to land use/land cover (Rindfuss et al., 1996a). While the NSF proposal was under review, we developed a related initiative to integrate social and spatial data in the evaluation of family planning programs. Funded as a subproject under the EVALUATION Project, sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development, with additional funds from the Mellon Foundation, this effort, led by Amy Tsui, explored the GIS as a means of organiz- ing and integrating family planning program data from multiple sources and time points. Alternative measures of family planning accessibility were derived from spatial data using spatial network analysis, and then incorporated into statistical analyses of contraceptive choice that drew on measures based on social survey and administrative data as well (Entwisle et al., 1997a). Although not specifi- cally focused on population and environment, these analyses helped further the GIS and our collaborative strength in the marriage of social and spatial data, techniques, and perspectives. Consequently, when the National Institute of Child Health and Human De- velopment (NICHD) issued its Request for Applications on "Population and Environment" in June 1994, we were well positioned to compete for funds. We had already created a data set for Nang Rong that was unique in its social, spatial, and temporal coverage, and a program of social demographic research based on these data was well under way (Entwisle et al., 1996; Rindfuss et al., 1996b). Instrumental to this latter research was an initial grant received from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to study contraceptive choice in a changing environ- ment based on 1984 and 1988 data, which was followed by a competing continu- ation grant to collect additional social data in 1994-1995, investigate social net- works in relation to other characteristics of social context, and expand the scope to include migration as well as fertility. A GIS was in place. We had processed satellite data and could demonstrate their relevance to a study of land-use/land- cover and population change. An interdisciplinary team was in place that had collaborated successfully and developed some common language. Our project, "Population Dynamics and Changes in the Landscape," was

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26 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND funded and is under way at the time of this writing. The first goal was to expand the time series of optical satellite images for Nang Rong from 1972 through 1996, and also to incorporate radar data and aerial photography extending back to the 1950s. The other goals of the project revolve around use of the satellite time series, combined with data from social surveys, administrative records, and digi- tal maps, to explore dynamic interrelationships among land use, population, and social and economic change. As indicated earlier, these explorations have fo- cused thus far on land use/land cover in the 1970s and early 1980s as an influence on subsequent out-migration of young adults, and on population change between 1984 and 1994 as an influence on land use/land cover in 1994. Next steps include the development of a household model linking land use and migration, a study of the consequences of past high fertility for the current size of landholdings and for the fragmentation of agricultural plots, and the construction of models for assess- ing landscape organization and use of these models to simulate trajectories of future change. A related project, funded by the MacArthur Foundation, has focused specifi- cally on villages as the link between measures derived from the satellite time series and those derived from social survey and administrative data. The maps available to that project are based on different concepts of "village," and we are just now completing the field work necessary to resolve this problem. The 1984 topographic map identifies clusters of dwellings as villages, whereas the 1993 planning map identifies administrative units. This difference in concept, com- bined with real change over the decade separating the maps, led to substantial discrepancy between the two maps. Each map shows locations for approximately 300 villages, but only 200 of those villages appear in both maps. Accounting for and resolving these differences is vital for analyses of land use/land cover and population over time. We have described the history of our Nang Rong projects in terms of each project building on previous ones, but this is not the whole story. An expanding research infrastructure for spatial analysis paralleled the progression of indi- vidual research projects. There is a division of labor between the Carolina Popu- lation Center (CPC) and the Spatial Analysis Laboratory in the Department of Geography at the University of North Carolina with respect to data processing, but the nature of this division of labor has changed over time. Initially, social data processing took place at CPC, and spatial data processing took place at the Spatial Analysis Laboratory. Gradually, CPC's Spatial Analysis Unit was devel- oped, first with start-up funding from the university's Vice Chancellor for Health Affairs and then with funding from an NICHD "Center" grant. We now use both spatial analysis units, which has increased efficiency and allowed us to draw on a wider range of expertise.

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BARBARA ENTVEISLE ET AL. 127 DATA Social Survey Data Key to our research on land-use/land-cover and population change is pro- spective longitudinal and multilevel survey data, with observations for individu- als, households, and villages covering the 1984-1994 period. As mentioned, the longitudinal data collection began as an evaluation of the CBIRD Project (Insti- tute for Population and Social Research, 1984:3~. To evaluate the success of the initial 4-year project, the Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR), Mahidol University, Thailand, with financial assistance from the Canadian Inter- national Development Research Center, conducted a complete household census in each of 51 villages in 1984, a 1988 follow-up survey of households containing a woman of reproductive age, and community surveys in the 51 villages at both time points as part of a comprehensive research effort. These are known as the CEP (Community Evaluation Project) surveys. No U.S. researchers were in- volved in the 1984 surveys, but Ronald R. Rindfuss and David K. Guilkey of CPC collaborated with Aphichat Chamratrithirong and other IPSR researchers to design the 1988 data collection. The idea was to piggyback a study of contracep- tive choice onto the CBIRD evaluation already planned (Entwisle et al., 1996; Rindfuss et al., 1996b). The linked data sets have also been used to study migration (Curran, 1994; Sawangdee, 1995~. Likewise, the 1994 surveys (funded by an earlier NIH grant) built on the foundation of the 1988 survey panel. These surveys, known as the CEP-CPC surveys, followed up individuals, households, and villages included in the 1984 data collection, but with a greatly expanded research agenda. The 1994 data were intended to support prospective migration studies, detailed descriptions of life- course transitions in the young adult years, and studies of social networks at multiple levels of observation (individual, household, village) in relation to de- mographic behavior. Four different theoretical perspectives guided this effort: Davis' (1963) multiphasic theory, which stresses multiple demographic responses to social change (especially the interconnectedness of fertility and migration); multilevel approaches to examining social contexts and demographic behavior (Entwisle and Mason, 1985; Bilsborrow et al., 1987; Findley, 1987~; the life- course perspective, with its interest in individual role trajectories over time (Clausen, 1972; Elder, 1985, 1991~; and social network theory (e.g., Freeman, 1979) as applied to demographic phenomena (Rogers, 1983; Massey and Garcia Espana, 1987~. There are three components to the 1994 data collection: a community profile, a household survey, and a migrant follow-up. The 1994 community profiles were done in all of the Nang Rong villages, including but not limited to ones that were initially part of the CBIRD evaluation. The community profiles done in 1984 and 1988 were fairly extensive. The 1994 data collection obtained much of the same detail, including population size and

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28 LAND-USE/L~AND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND composition; cropping (e.g., specific crops grown, prices received, marketing); water sources (location, quality, and sufficiency); agricultural technology (use of various kinds of equipment, fertilizers, and pesticides); electrification; transpor- tation and communication; health and family planning services; and village groups and committees. In addition, the 1994 community profile covered some new topics, including links to other villages by virtue of shared temples, schools, and bus routes; labor exchanges between villages; and perceptions about deforestation. Although not specifically designed to be used with remotely sensed data, the village profiles provide data useful for many purposes. First, survey information about cropping, use of fertilizer, water sources, and deforestation provides a cross-check on the interpretation of remotely sensed data (and vice versa). Sec- ond, information about links and exchanges between villages can shed light on questions of scale (see below). Although the village seems to be an appropriate level at which to conduct both social and spatial analysis, it is possible that some clustering of villages may be better. Social network analysis can be used to develop a basis for such aggregation. Third, village profile data can be linked with variables derived from remotely sensed data, and statistical analyses can then be undertaken. We have conducted some preliminary analyses of popula- tion, land use/land cover, and landscape diversity along these lines (Walsh et al., in press; Entwisle et al., 1997b). A household survey was the second component of the 1994 data collection. In fact, the survey consisted of a complete household census in each of the 51 villages that participated in the 1984 and 1988 data collections. The 1994 survey addressed the topics covered previously, and considerably more: substantial detail on the whereabouts and current characteristics of 1984 household mem- bers; visits and exchanges of goods and money with former household members; social and demographic facts about current members; yearly life history data for those aged 18-35, including information about migration patterns and occupa- tion; sibling networks for those aged 18-35; and household characteristics, in- cluding plots of land owned and rented, use of agricultural equipment, crop mix, planting and harvesting of specific crops (rice, cassava, and sugarcane) and house- hold debts. These data have quite a bit to offer when used in conjunction with remotely sensed data. Aggregated to the village level, household data offer an additional perspective on the interpretation of satellite images. Data on crop mix and on the timing of planting and harvesting can be used to verify land-use/land-cover clas- sifications based on satellite data for the same time period. It is also possible to estimate the total amount of land cultivated by village households, and this infor- mation can be used to adjust spatial boundaries around villages. As explained below, one of the challenges faced in joining social survey and remotely sensed data is the identification of a common unit of observation. Thus far, the village has served as our common unit. This approach has worked reasonably well, but a difficulty is that the spatial boundaries of a village are not so easy to determine.

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BARBARA ENTWISLE ET AL. 129 Tom Evans of the University of North Carolina Department of Geography is working on a dissertation that will help clarify questions about boundaries in the Nang Rong setting. In the meantime, however, clues provided by the aggregated household data as to which villages are quite large spatially and which are quite small add realism to some of the arbitrary procedures we must employ. Another key strength of the household data is the prospective design. Using the 1984 household rosters as a basis, survey interviewers in 1994 attempted to find out about all households and household members present in 1984. Identify- ing information was obtained so that the 1994 and the 1984 records could be linked. This means that for the 51 villages in which the household censuses were done, detailed data are available not only about population change over the 10- year period, but also about changes in population composition (for example, age, education, occupation, assets). Further, it is possible to differentiate between changes to households and household members present in 1984 and changes due to new individuals moving into the village and to the formation of new house- holds. Most important, it is possible to examine population processes prospec- tively. We have conducted a preliminary analysis in which the out-migration of young adults between 1984 and 1994 is examined in relation to the availability of undeveloped land (based on remote imagery from the mid-1970s), the fragmenta- tion of land use (also based on remote imagery), and the potential for competition from other villages (Rindfuss et al., 1996a). During this period, marginal lands were cleared to grow cassava in Nang Rong (and elsewhere in the Northeast) as part of the rapid extensification of agricultural land into formerly forested and upland areas. Consistent with this picture, we found that the availability of forested land in the 1970s was associated with diminished out-migration in the 51 villages where household data were collected. The prospective design has also made it possible for us to consider household formation, as well as changes in household size and composition, as a potential influence on land use/land cover (Entwisle et al., 1997b). The final component of the 1994 survey is a follow-up of out-migrants from 22 of the 51 villages. These 22 villages were selected randomly within strata created by cross-classifying general location (quadrant) and distance from major paved roads in 1984. Persons resident in 1984 but no longer resident in 1994 were candidates for follow-up if they had gone to Bangkok and surrounding areas, the Eastern Seaboard (a focus of rapid growth and development), Korat (a regional city), or Buriram (the provincial city). We succeeded in finding and interviewing about 70 percent of the migrants who still had family in Nang Rong, a remarkably high proportion (cf. Bilsborrow et al., 1984~. In Nang Rong, migra- tion of young adults is extremely common. Some return, while some do not. An understanding of migration patterns thus requires an understanding of the factors influencing some temporary out-migrants to become permanent out-migrants. Such an understanding in turn requires prospective and retrospective data on

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130 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND those who leave, as well as those who stay or have returned. The Nang Rong data are unique in providing such a complete picture of migration. As we have stressed, the 1994 surveys were not designed specifically for use with satellite datai (and we would have done some things differently had we had the wisdom of hindsight), but collectively, and combined with the 1984 and 1988 data collections, the survey data offer excellent opportunities for analysis in conjunction with remotely sensed data. There are many features of the survey data that make their integration with satellite imagery especially exciting. One is coverage. As noted earlier, the 1994 community profiles were done in all of the villages, while data were collected from all households in a subset of 51 villages. A second important feature is the multilevel structure of the data: there are observations for individuals, households, and villages. With this structure, even though we cannot link individual people to individual pixels, it is still possible to study individuals and households in contexts characterized in part by satellite data. This is important because many land-use decisions are made by individuals and households. A third important feature is temporal depth. Ten years is not such a long time for interrelationships between population and environment to manifest themselves, but it is a longer period than that spanned by many social demographic data sets, especially prospective ones. A final and related feature is that the data follow migrants as well. Remotely Sensed Data Remote images obtained from the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) and from the Systeme pour ['Observation de la Terre (SPOT) Multispectral (MX) and Panchromatic (PAN) sensors are also key to our research on land-use/land-cover and population change in Nang Rong. The following discussion briefly describes the approaches we are following to assess land use/land cover and plant biomass through satellite spectral responses. GIS techniques used to derive biophysical and geographical variables are also de- scribed, as are pattern metrics for assessing the composition and spatial organiza- tion of land use/land cover derived from the digital classifications. Using a derived local crop calendar, we constructed a satellite time series that incorporates Landsat MSS, TM, and SPOT MX and PAN data. The MSS data include scenes for 18 December 1972, 28 February 1973, 24 November 1975, 17 January 1976, and 7 October 1979; the TM data include scenes for 17 November 1988, 6 February 1989, 15 December 1992, 2 February 1993, 3 No- vember 1994,6 January 1995,7 February 1995,6 November 1995,24 December 1995, and 25 January 1996; and the SPOT data include MX and PAN scenes for 7 April 1994. The time series was configured to provide (1) historical coverage prior to the 1984 population survey and subsequent to the 1994 survey; (2) multispectral, multispatial, and multitemporal representation; and (3) interannual and interseasonal characteristics for defining the nature of land use/land cover

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BARBARA ENTWISLE ET AL. 131 and the magnitude, pattern, and directionality of change. Additional Landsat TM and SPOT MX scenes will be acquired as our research proceeds. Based on our experiences with processing of images for the region, the importance of a satellite time series for land-use/land-cover mapping has become clear. Variation in local and regional phenologies, planting schedules across the district, and land-use/land-cover types suggests the need for a minimum of two and preferable three images per analysis period for satisfactory land-use/land- cover separation. Following data preprocessing to correct for geometric, radio- metric, and topographic distortions in the data, we used empirical normaliza- tion procedures to balance and correct responses from data acquired on different dates and therefore under different solar angles and atmospheric attenuation characteristics. The image time series was then classified for land-use/land-cover extraction. An unsupervised classification approach was used to map land use/land cover at multiple dates, with emphasis on 1979 and 1993. Level 1 and Level 2 mapping classes were defined through the classification process, with emphasis on the pattern of deforestation, agricul- tural intensification in rice-growing areas, and agricultural extensification of cassava in upland sites. Plate 6-1 (after page 150) provides an example. Supervised classification is also being used, as well as hybrid approaches, as our ground control information expands areally and across land-use/land- cover types, and as we seek to identify specific cover types for selected villages, landscape strata, or time periods. The accuracy of a classification is summarized through an error matrix, Kappa statistic, and omission and commission errors by comparing satellite- based land-use/land-cover categories against aerial photography and/or field samples. We are using two approaches. The household and village surveys contain information on related variables, such as the total area planted in various crops, which can be compared with the Level 1 and Level 2 classes. Also, as a consequence of prior trips to the district, a ground-control GIS directory has been created and expanded over time. This directory contains assorted ground-control coverages that relate to various land-use/land-cover verification efforts conducted for various villages within the district. Locations are defined through Global Positioning System (GPS) values and through delineated plot locations on scaled Landsat TM and SPOT PAN satellite output. Our initial work with these land-cover classifications has involved ex- amining the relationship between migration patterns and patterns of land- cover change (Rindfuss et al., 1996a; Entwisle et al., 1997b), as well as more general relationships between population and land-cover patterns (Walsh et al., in press). As part of this work, we are interested not only in types of land cover, but also in the way the land was compositionally and spatially orga- nized, so we can begin to assess the nature of human-environment interac- tions through the scale, pattern, and process paradigm that is emergent in ecology and other natural sciences.

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LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND 134 FIGURE 6-3 Units of observation and links among them. FIGURE 6-4 Fishbone pattern: Stylized relationship between place of residence and land ownership and use. FIGURE 6-5 Place of residence and land ownership and use in Nang Rong. People T | Household ~ At :~3 Pixel shown as Figure 6-4. It is conceptually straightforward to link people, plots, and pixels given this pattern, although there are complications in practice, as indi- cated in the chapter by Moran and Brondizio in this volume. The settlement and farming pattern in Nang Rong departs from the stylized fishbone pattern in sev- eral important ways, as illustrated in Figure 6-5. Household residences are clus- tered in villages; the location of a household provides few clues about the loca- tion of the land farmed by that household. Further, households farm multiple plots (as many as 11), and these plots may be and often are scattered. If we had the spatial coordinates of all the plots farmed by all households in a village, as

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BARBARA ENTWISLE ET AL. 135 well as a clearly defined village territory, it would be possible to move among all the units of observation indicated in Figure 6-3. Since we do not have these spatial coordinates, we link at the village level instead. The population surveys conducted in 1984, 1988, and 1994 at the household and village levels are represented in the GIS as discrete point locations mapped at the village centroid. Such a spatial representation is appropriate given the nuclear settlement pattern of Thai villages. Biophysical and geographical information derived through remote sensing techniques, however, represents space as a con- tinuous surface summarized at the pixel level. Integration of social and environ- mental data therefore requires a transformation of space whereby a polygon representation is used to denote the pattern and variability of landscape condi- tions associated with discrete village locations. This transformation involves defining village boundaries, a complex issue in a region where political delinea- tions change as village populations grow, and social, cultural, biophysical, and geographical parameters combine to influence the geometry and areal extent of village boundaries. Our initial approach is fairly simple and involves generating radial buffers around the nuclear village centroids at distances of 2 and 3 km. This model is simple to implement and has particular relevance to the study area in that it (1) assumes travel distances from households to field plots appropriate to travel conditions during the 1984-1994 study period, which involved primarily walk- ing; (2) provides for overlapping village boundaries associated with the density and location of villages; and (3) represents the nuclear village settlement concept, whereby residents disperse from village centers to engage in various land activi- ties. Plate 6-2 (after page 150) shows an example of 3-km buffers for our 51 study villages overlaid on a 1993 TM land-cover classification. This figure makes it clear that villages may be competing with one another for available land, and we include measures of competition in our models (Entwisle et al., 1997b; Rindfuss et al., 1996b). We are also beginning to explore other approaches for setting village bound- aries, including Thiessen polygons, population-weighted Thiessen polygons, and the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN). Such approaches produce nonover- lapping village boundaries and irregular boundary dimensions and orientations. Thiessen polygons maintain a one-to-one relationship between points and poly- gons. Any location within the defined polygon is closer, in Euclidean distance, to the associated point than to any of its neighboring points, and polygons vary in size inversely with point density. Plate 6-3 (after page 150) shows an example using a Thiessen polygon approach incorporating all villages in Nang Rong over- laid on a 1993 Landsat image. In addition, doctoral research by Tom P. Evans noted earlier is examining the concept of distinct and fuzzy boundaries for representing territories of Thai vil- lages. A fuzzy boundary can be created, for example, by land-ownership pat- terns, a product of the degree of land fragmentation around a village. Land

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136 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND fragmentation may develop as a consequence of intradistrict migration, land- inheritance practices, land-tenure patterns, and environmental variation. Fuzzy boundaries between villages suggest, in the context of Thai culture and society, the concept of functional boundaries that overlap in space and vary by social, cultural, biophysical, and geographical domains. Availability of Exogenous Variables We are interested in the interrelationships between population growth and change on the one hand and land-use and land-cover change on the other. While it is possible to examine associations, we also want to be able to examine causal relationships. The difficulty here is that the settlement of Nang Rong predates our data. Even at the earliest point in our time series, the land-cover pattern has been influenced by human behavior, and human behavior has been influenced by land-cover patterns. To draw causal inferences, one must be able to identify variables exogenous to the system of interrelationships. One such variable is elevation, which thus far in Nang Rong has not been influenced by human behav- ior or changes in land cover (Entwisle et al., 1997b). The contour lines and point elevations on our 1 :50,000 scale base maps have been scan-digitized and attributes attached, edge-matched, and processed to yield digital elevation models (DEMs) of the study area. Figure 6-6 shows the topo- graphic inputs for the DEMs. The DEMs are being used to characterize the percentages of alluvial plain/lower terrace, middle/high terrace, and upland in the 2- and 3-km boundaries associated with each of the district villages.4 The con- struction of DEMs is important for the characterization of topographic site and situation relationships associated with land-use/land-cover potentials (Entwisle et al., 1997b). For example, most recent agricultural production, occurring on low terraces and alluvial plains, has seen a substantial amount of the agricultural intensification related to paddy rice production. In addition to obtaining elevation from the DEMs, we plan to work with several other derived measures to see if we can obtain exogenous measures of land suitability for various types of land cover and land use. One of the most common indices derived from DEMs, used to indicate potential wetness for a site, is the Topographic Convergence or Wetness Index (B even and Kirby, 1979; Moore et al., 1991; Wolock and McCabe, 1995~. This index uses calculations of slope and upslope contributing area (the area that drains through a given location) to generate a dimensionless index of potential wetness, which provides a simple but effective model used to characterize channels, gullies, and moisture sinks (Allen and Walsh, 1996; Townsend and Walsh, 1996~. A digitized hydrography layer was used to support the calculation of the index. Topographic curvature was generated to integrate planform and profile curvature in order to portray localized topographic situations (Moore et al., 1991) within the soil moisture potential surface. The variable distinguishes slopes having a convex versus a

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BARBARA ENTVEISLE ET AL. Contour Lines (10m interval) t A. Topographic Sinks 137 ~ . . . . . ~e~5~e-~ IN ee ~ en ar .. A- : Spot Elevations (1m vertical resolution) Linear Surface Drainage Patterns FIGURE 6-6 Topographic data inputs for generation of digital elevation models, Nang Rong, Thailand. concave slope. Profile curvature is the vertical or downslope concavity/convex- ity and portrays slope steepness. Slope curvature affects the acceleration and deceleration of gravity flows. Solar radiation affects the soil moisture, tempera- ture regimes, and photosynthetic capacity of the landscape. The potential direct solar insolation at any location will be represented through grid locations through- out the study area, given DEM-derived elevation, slope angle, and slope aspect information. The procedures are modeled after Bonan (1989) and Montieth and Unsworth (1990~. Shadowing by adjacent terrain is an important factor influenc- ing potential insolation. Solar radiation potential is derived by integrating the

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138 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND effects of shadows, direct solar insolation, and insolation variability throughout the normal growing season within the study area. Values can be calculated for various time steps on an hourly, daily, and seasonal basis, and in future work we plan to explore the most appropriate time periodicity. Scale of Analysis The effects of spatial scale, pattern, and process are inherently involved in landscape studies. Processes shaping the landscape function only at certain ranges of spatial and temporal scales, and their effects vary with scale (Woodcock and Strahler, 1987; Nellis and Briggs, 1989~. An important consideration in linking survey and image time series data is thus the scale of analysis. The spatial resolution of remote sensing systems is the pixel, whose dimensions vary with the sensor system and reconnaissance platform. As a consequence of the continuous nature of remotely sensed data organized within a raster data model, data aggre- gation approaches are available for altering the pixel dimension to a coarser grain size where appropriate. Scale-dependent analyses use such an approach to define the range of spatial scales of remotely sensed data and continuous GIS coverage that may be highly autocorrelated in an effort to interrelate scale, pattern, and process.5 Integration of data collected from different satellite systems (e.g., SPOT MX, Landsat TM, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration' s [NOAA] Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR]) offers an ad- ditional approach to spatial resolution through information scaling. While popu- lation data can be transformed from discrete point locations to a continuous surface through spatial interpolation and spread approaches, natural population units (e.g., household, village, district) may be more suitable. The summarizing of satellite data at the village level is subject to difficulties related to the setting of village boundaries, whereas the use of agricultural plots as the unit of measure is subject to the spatial resolution limitations of the satellite systems and the con- straints of the population survey that make it difficult to link households to geographic lot locations. The temporal dimension of remotely sensed data is achieved by acquiring images for single time slices that are combined into a time series. Population- based life histories and retrospective analyses based on population surveys offer a distinctly different approach for representing the temporal dimension as seen through the creation of an image time series. While questions of information scaling within social and biophysical sys- tems need to be addressed more effectively, the scaling of social and biophysical relationships across temporal and spatial domains and within similar and differ- ent environments offers unique research challenges. In our research, we have defined a scale continuum for the population, environment, and geographical domains that includes, respectively, (1) household, village, and village clusters; (2) field plot, terrain strata, village, and watershed; and (3) pixel, aggregated

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BARBARA ENTVEISLE ET AL. 139 pixel, village, terrain strata, and watershed. The temporal range extends from the 1970s to the present, with particular emphasis on 1984, 1988, and 1994. The temporal scale of analysis is the season, year, and decade. Research is ongoing at various scales along the continuum, and other research is planned. A challenge is to link population-environment data at various scales, define important variables along the scale continuum, scale the variables from one resolution to another, and assess the important processes and relationships across domains and across spa- tial and temporal scales. CONCLUSIONS In conducting the research described above, our research team has benefited from expertise across a range of substantive and methodological specialties. In our case, long-standing research programs in social and biophysical topics have been integrated to address population-environment questions through a synergis- tic relationship among sociology, demography, geography, and spatial techniques. While the exchange of language and concepts among disciplines is still occur- ring, team members assumed leadership roles in various substantive and method- ological areas early in our research relationship to move quickly up the learning curve. Literature exchanges, processing discussions, conceptual dialogue, loca- tion at the same university, standing in one's scientific community, similarity of research styles and modes of work, and early success with funding agencies contributed to our collaborative efforts. Other advantages of our research col- laboration included team proficiencies in a broad-based set of research methods, as well as an appropriate computer infrastructure to support remote sensing im- age processing, GIS, spatial analysis, GPS technology, and statistical modeling. The availability of population survey data collected for the study area in 1984, 1988, and 1994 was another essential ingredient of both our start-up efforts in linking spatial and social data and our sustained program of inquiry. The survey data and its intensive preprocessing at IPSR, Mahidol University, and the CPC provided the temporal and longitudinal depth for our ongoing analyses. Finally, especially in the early years of the project, we benefited from the willingness of funding agencies and program administrators to take a risk on an unproven re- search plan. Consider these comments by a reviewer of one of our earliest proposals: This research proposal is complex and ambitious....It is highly innovative and interdisciplinary. This presents pitfalls as well as exciting opportunities....It is difficult to assess the potential value of the research; it is an experiment, and we won't know until it's been tried....My reaction is to forgive the pitfalls and to embrace the experiment as plausible and worthwhile (but risky). I suspect that serious efforts to incorporate environmental factors into social science will re- quire spatial and interdisciplinary research. Fortunately, the funding agency followed the recommendation of this reviewer

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140 LAND-USE/LAND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND and provided crucial start-up money. This sort of vision on the part of funding agencies and program administrators is still needed. Remotely sensed data provide a valuable landscape perspective that is sub- stantially enhanced through the availability of corresponding social data. Satel- lite time series offer the best opportunity for landscape analyses over time and space. The use of remotely sensed data for international sites, however, is prob- lematic in that archived data are often limited, multitemporal data for examining interannual or interseasonal variations are difficult to assemble and acquire, and only a few commonly available satellite systems offer alternate views of the landscape. Finally, while remote sensing systems and data accessibility could be enhanced, population surveys could also benefit from the routine geocoding of landscape features (e.g., households and village centroids) as part of the survey, the formulation of survey questions that directly examine spatial pattern and geographic location (e.g., spatial networks and field plot positions), and the ex- amination of population-environment issues across a range of spatial and tempo- ral scales. NOTES 1 The planning for the 1994 survey began in 1990, well before Aphichat Chamratrithirong, Barbara Entwisle and Ronald R. Rindfuss were aware of the potential for linking the social data to satellite data. 2 Turner's (1990) SPAN (Spatial Analysis) algorithm was one of the first widely distributed landscape pattern programs. Users of the Geographic Resource Analysis System (GRASS) use a module developed by Baker and Cal (1992) for examining multiscale landscape patterns in the "r.le" supplemental programs. DeCola and Montagne (1993) have published results from the PYRAMID system, a package designed to analyze multiscale spatial structure in raster data sets, and McGarigal and Marks (1993) developed FRAGSTATS, a widely used package of composition and pattern metrics. Other recently developed packages for assessing composition and pattern include APACK, a free-standing package for spatial analysis of raster data; DISPLAY, which calculates landscape structure through a set of metrics that can be processed in batch mode and implemented sequentially; RULE, which assesses landscape organization according to defined neighborhood dimensions; and HISA (Habitat Island Spatial Analysis), used to calculate a host of landscape metrics from digital land-cover maps. 3 The 1984 maps showed nucleated settlement patterns as "villages," irrespective of the num- ber of households in the village. The 1992-1993 planning maps showed administrative village locations, based on an administrative system that aims for villages of approximately 100 households. Needless to say, with two different concepts behind the mapping procedures, the two maps do not agree, even taking into account the time differences between them. At the time of this writing, field work is in progress that will result in our being able to move back and forth between these two conceptually distinct types of villages. 4 The TOPOGRID module in ARC/INFO was used to interpolate the DEM from the scanned contour data. TOPOGRID generates a DEM from contour lines, point elevation data, and hydrogra- phy information using an iterative finite difference interpolation technique developed by Hutchinson (1989). The algorithm interpolates elevation values iteratively using a thin plate spline, thereby developing an optimal flow model that maintains the integrity of the input data while simultaneously ensuring surface continuity (Hutchinson, 1993). The algorithm is optimized by using digital hydrog- raphy data to constrain TOPOGRID to identifying the appropriate low elevations along drainages.

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BARBARA ENTVEISLE ET AL. 141 5 Semivariograms and fractals will be used to assess the nature and degree of the autocorrelation among landscape features at different spatial scales. Walsh has explored the scale dependence among elevation, slope angle, and slope aspect, derived from GIS-based DEMs, and plant biomass, defined through satellite digital data in an alpine environment in Montana (Bian and Walsh, 1993). Bian and Walsh addressed (1) the effective range of spatial scales within which plant biomass and terrain variables were spatially dependent; (2) optimum spatial scales for representing terrain and plant relationships; and (3) the degree of spatial dependence of these relationships. Walsh et al. (1997) report that the spatial organization of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at finer scales is an important indicator of the NDVI at coarser scales. REFERENCES Allen, T.R., and S.J. Walsh 1996 Spatial and compositional pattern of alpine beeline. Glacier National Park, Montana. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (in press). Baker, W.L., and Y. Cal 1992 The r.le programs for multiscale analysis of landscape structure using the GRASS geo- graphical information system. Landscape Ecology 7(4):291-302. Beven, K.J., and M.J. Kirby 1979 A physically-based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin 24(1):43-69. Bian, L., and S.J. Walsh 1993 Scale dependence of vegetation and topography in a mountainous environment of Mon- tana. Professional Geographer 45(1):1-11. Bilsborrow, R.E., T.M. McDevitt, S.A. Kossoudji, and R. Fuller 1987 The impact of origin community characteristics on rural-urban out-migration in a devel- oping country. Demography 24:191-210. Bilsborrow, R.E., A.S. Oberai, and G. Standing 1984 Migration Surveys in Low Income Countries: Guidelines for Survey and Questionnaire Design. London, England: Croom Helm. Bonan, G.B. 1989 A computer model of the solar radiation, soil moisture, and soil thermal regimes in boreal forests. Ecological Modelling 45:275-306. Caplow, T., H.M. Bahr, et al. 1982 Middletown Families: Fifty Years of Change and Continuity. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Clausen, J.A. 1972 The life course of individuals. Pp. 457-514 in Aging and Society. Vol. 3: A Sociology of Age Stratification, M.W. Riley, M. Johnson, and A. Foner, eds. New York: Sage. Curran, S.R. 1994 Household resources and opportunities: The distribution of education and migration in rural Thailand. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Sociology, University of North Caro- lina. Davis, K. 1963 The theory of change and response in modern demographic history. Population Index 29:345-366. DeCola, L., and N. Montagne 1993 The PYRAMID system for multiscale raster analysis. Computers and Geosciences 19(10): 1393-1404.

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44 LAND-USE/L~AND-COVERANDPOPULATIONDYNAMICS, THAILAND Wolock, D.M., and G.J. McCabe, Jr. 1995 Comparison of single and multiple flow direction algorithms for computing topographic parameters in TOPMODEL. Water Resources Research 31: 1315-1324. Woodcock, C.E., and A.H. Strahler 1987 The factor of scale in remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment 21:311-332.