U.S. Industry: Restructuring and Renewal

Industrial Research and Innovation Indicators

Report of a Workshop

Edited by Ronald S. Cooper and Stephen A. Merrill

Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy
National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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--> U.S. Industry: Restructuring and Renewal Industrial Research and Innovation Indicators Report of a Workshop Edited by Ronald S. Cooper and Stephen A. Merrill Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The conference from which this report was drawn was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members come from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the board responsible for the project were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This publication was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation. Program support for the Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy is provided by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. International Standard Book Number 0-309-05994-1 Limited copies are available from: Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Room NAS 246 Washington, D.C. 20418 (202) 334-2200 FAX: (202) 334-1667 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press Box 285 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20055 (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Cover: The emblem appearing on the cover of this publication is an illustration of the bronze medallion in the floor of the Great Hall in the National Academy of Sciences building in Washington, D.C. The medallion is the wellhead placed in the floor when the spectroscopic case over which the Foucault pendulum swings is lowered below floor level. The design is based on a map of the solar system published in 1661 by Andreas Cellarius Palatinus. The array of the planets is the Copernican system as known to Galileo. Copyright © 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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--> NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL BOARD ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC POLICY A. MICHAEL SPENCE, Chairman Dean, Graduate School of Business Stanford University M. KATHY BEHRENS Managing Partner Robertson, Stephens & Company JAMES F. GIBBONS Professor of Electrical Engineering Stanford University GEORGE N. HATSOPOULOS President and CEO Thermo Electron Corporation DALE JORGENSON Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics Harvard University RALPH LANDAU Consulting Professor Economics Stanford University JAMES T. LYNN Adviser Lazard Freres BURTON J. McMURTRY General Partner Technology Venture Investors MARK B. MYERS Senior Vice President Xerox Corporation JAMES M. POTERBA Professor of Economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology PAUL ROMER Professor of Economics Graduate School of Business Stanford University RUBEN METTLER, Vice Chairman Chairman and CEO (retired) TRW, Inc. WILLIAM J. SPENCER Chairman SEMATECH JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The World Bank ALAN WM. WOLFF Managing Partner Dewey Ballantine Ex-Officio Members BRUCE M. ALBERTS President National Academy of Sciences WILLIAM A. WULF President National Academy of Engineering KENNETH I. SHINE President Institute of Medicine Staff STEPHEN A. MERRILL Executive Director CHARLES W. WESSNER Program Director LENA J. LAWRENCE Administrative Assistant

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--> STEERING GROUP ON INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH AND INNOVATION INDICATORS DALE JORGENSON, Chair Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics Harvard University MARK B. MYERS Senior Vice President Corporate Research and Technology Xerox Corporation GEORGE N. HATSOPOULOS President and CEO Thermo Electron Corporation BRONWYN HALL Associate Professor of Economics University of California, Berkeley ADAM JAFFE Professor of Economics Brandeis University CHARLES LARSON Executive Director Industrial Research Institute ROBERT M. WHITE Head, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Carnegie Mellon University JOHN BALDWIN Director, Micro Economic Studies and Analysis Statistics Canada Staff STEPHEN A. MERRILL Project Director RONALD S. COOPER Consultant

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--> Contents     Preface   vii 1   Introduction   1 2   Summary of Suggestions   4 3   Public Policy Information Needs   8 4   Need for A Conceptual Framework   13 5   Improving Information on Industrial R&D   18 6   Measuring Outputs and Outcomes of Innovation   23 7   Innovation Surveys   30 8   Public-Private Partnerships for Science and Technology Data   33 9   Innovation in the Service Sector and Information Technology   35 10   Internationalization of Innovative Activity   37 11   Cross-Cutting Data Issues   39     Notes   42     References   43     Appendices         A Workshop Program   47     B List of Registered Participants   50

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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a working mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The council is administered jointly by both academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Preface In 1991 the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering established the Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy (STEP) as a forum in which economists, technologists, scientists, financial and management experts, and policy makers could broaden and deepen understanding of the relationships between science and technology and economic performance. In its first three years, the Board's activities focused on the adequacy and efficiency of public and private domestic investment in physical and human capital. The Board's first report, Investing for Productivity and Prosperity, underscored the need for higher rates of national saving and investment. Its principal recommendation was to shift the base for taxation from income to consumption. In the past two years, the Board has turned its attention to more microeconomic concerns—technology policies, broadly defined, and their relationship to international trade relations, determinants of competitive performance in a wide range of manufacturing and service industries, and changes in patterns of research and development and innovation investments. A series of conferences, workshops, and reports, of which this volume is the first, comprises the latter body of STEP work, entitled U.S. Industry: Restructuring and Renewal, because it represents a broad assessment of U.S. industrial performance in an international context at a time of domestic economic confidence and optimism but uncertainty about the consequences of fundamental changes in the composition of the economy and processes of innovation. Future publications under this title will include the proceedings of a conference on international tax rules and research and development tax policy, commissioned papers on a dozen industries, a review of trends in financing new technology-based enterprises, and the conclusions and recommendations of the Board. This series of projects would not have

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--> been possible without the financial support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Science Foundation and the personal encouragement of Daniel Goldin, NASA Administrator. This first publication in the series is the report of a workshop, Industrial Research and Innovation Indicators, held at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C., on February 28, 1997, in response to a specific request initiated by John E. Jankowski, Jr., director of the research and development statistics program of the Science Resources Studies Division of the National Science Foundation. The conference was organized with the assistance of a committee chaired by STEP Board members Dale Jorgenson, Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and Mark Myers, Senior Vice President for Corporate Research and Technology, Xerox Corporation. The workshop brought together statisticians and economists concerned with industrial organization and innovation practices, industrial managers, association representatives, government officials representing diverse policy arenas and statistical agencies, and analysts from other industrialized countries and international organizations. The report does not present conclusions and recommendations of the STEP Board and the Academies but does represent a faithful summary of the suggestions of workshop participants for improving measurement of private-sector innovative activity and output, expanding the collection of data within the constraints of available resources, and enhancing the utility of information available to policy makers and corporate decision makers. Above all, it underscores the need to periodically reassess the selection of science and technology indicators in light of changes in the international economy and domestic industrial activity and advances in understanding of innovation processes, and to do so in close consultation with the interested policy community and the private-sector. A. MICHAEL SPENCE CHAIRMAN STEPHEN A. MERRILL EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR