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NOAA's ARCTIC RESEARCH INITIATIVE

PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP

Polar Research Board

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop NOAA's ARCTIC RESEARCH INITIATIVE PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP Polar Research Board Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for writing this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This work was sponsored by a contract from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its sub-agencies. Limited copies of this report are available from: National Research Council Polar Research Board 2101 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3479 Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop POLAR RESEARCH BOARD DAVID L. CLARK, (Chair), University of Wisconsin, Madison RICHARD B. ALLEY, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JOHN B. ANDERSON, Rice University, Houston, Texas DAVID R. BAINES, St. Maries, Idaho ERNEST S. BURCH, JR, Camp Hill, Pennsylvania GORDON F.N. COX, Amoco Eurasia Petroleum Company, Houston, Texas ROBERT LEE DE ZAFRA, State University of New York, Stony Brook BERNARD HALLET, University of Washington, Seattle DIANE M. McKNIGHT, University of Colorado, Boulder DONAL T. MANAHAN, University of Southern California, Los Angeles JAMES H. MORISON, University of Washington, Seattle WALTER C. OECHEL, San Diego State University, California IRENE C. PEDEN, Seattle, Washington GLENN E. SHAW, University of Alaska, Fairbanks THOMAS N. TAYLOR, University of Kansas, Lawrence ROBERT M. WALKER, Washington, University, St. Louis WORKSHOP STEERING COMMITTEE WALTER C. OECHEL, (Steering Committee Chair), San Diego State University, California ERNEST S. BURCH, JR., Consultant, Camp Hill, Pennsylvania DAVID L. CLARK, University of Wisconsin, Madison GORDON F.N. COX, Amoco Production Company, Houston, Texas BERNARD HALLET, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director TONI GREENLEAF, Senior Project Assistant/Financial Assistant (until 9/15/97) JUDY ESTEP, Administrative Assistant (after 9/15/97) KARY THOMPSON, Student Intern

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Have, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University, California JUDITH E. McDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A PRICE, Queen's University of Kingston, Ontario THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park Staff MYRON UMAN, Acting Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology an d to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in the accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop Preface The Polar Research Board (PRB) was established in 1958 to promote excellence in polar science and to provide assistance as needed to federal agencies. The PRB strives to enhance understanding of both the Arctic and Antarctic and ensure that U.S. research efforts are responsive to the needs of the nation. All PRB activities are conducted by volunteer experts, supported by a small staff. The nature of PRB activities varies. Often, committees are appointed to conduct focused studies that result in detailed reports such as The Bering Sea Ecosystem (1996) or Science and Stewardship in the Antarctic (1993). As an ongoing activity, the PRB serves as the U.S. national committee to two international bodies devoted to planning polar research, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), making sure that U.S. interests are represented. We design our activities to meet the needs of our community. This Proceedings describes a workshop conducted on July 11, 1997, at the request of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA is responsible for a research program called the Arctic Research Initiative (ARI), which is dedicated to understanding issues related to the health of the Western Arctic and the Bering Sea ecosystem, focusing on both natural variability in and anthropogenic influences on the region. Although the program is small at only $1 million in 1997 and perhaps up to $2 million in 1998, or perhaps because it is, NOAA wished to give special attention to planning a strategy for selecting the types of research that should be supported. Thus it asked the PRB to organize and host a workshop to help NOAA orient the ARI so it meets important research needs, better supports the NOAA mission, and at the same time contributes effectively to meeting national and international needs for addressing the health of the Arctic environment. This Proceedings contains an overview of the

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop workshop, transcripts of the presentations and discussions that occurred, and a variety of background materials useful in understanding the Arctic Research Initiative. We are fully aware that a one-day event cannot provide detailed guidance on research priorities, and in fact National Research Council policy precludes us from generating recommendations without a careful deliberative process. We hope NOAA will accept this volume in the spirit intended—as a record of a thought-provoking day of informal discussions. The workshop was designed to briefly review NOAA's involvement in research on Arctic contamination and then give a wide range of participants an opportunity to comment on the Arctic Research Initiative. Some 50 people from NOAA, other federal agencies, universities, and elsewhere participated. The PRB thanks these people for giving their time and sharing their ideas. I thank the PRB members who guided the workshop discussions, student intern Kary Thompson for logistical support, and the staff at NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), especially Renee Tatusko, for their assistance and interest. Chris Elfring, Director Polar Research Board

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NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop Contents 1   OVERVIEW   1 2   PRESENTATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS   13 3   BACKGROUND INFORMATION   125

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