Haskins proposed a small list of child outcomes about which policy makers would be most concerned: whether children stay in school, whether they get a job, and whether they avoid arrest.

Social science research needs to focus more on marriage, as distinct from nonmarital fertility, in Lichter's view. Current AFDC rules probably lower the probability that a cohabiting couple will decide to marry, and they lower the probability of remarriage for divorced women. There is a large research literature on "assortative mating," and it would be useful to know, for example, how AFDC affects the probability that a woman can "marry up" in the ranking, whether the income from AFDC allows women to be choosier about potential mates, just as unemployment insurance allows those out of work to be choosier about potential jobs. Researchers have relatively little to offer policy makers who want to know how policies of all sorts (not just AFDC/TANF) may promote marriage, rather than just discourage female headship. To this Bumpass added a concern about understanding cohabitation. One-third of nonmarital births are to cohabiting couples, yet little is known about their childrearing practices or the effect of the stability of the relationship on the children of either partner or their common children.

Welfare reform at the federal level is likely to increase, not to end, the need for policy-relevant research findings on the effects of income transfers on demographic behavior and families. At the same time, however, the character and pace of reform are likely to make it more difficult to produce useful and timely research, unless efforts are made to improve the availability of data.

REFERENCES

Acs, Gregory 1996 The impact of welfare on young mothers' subsequent childbearing decisions. Journal of Human Resources 31(4):898–915.

1995 Do welfare benefits promote out-of-wedlock childbearing? Pp. 51–54 in Isabel Sawhill, ed., Welfare Reform: An Analysis of the Issues. Washington, DC: Urban Institute.

Argus, Laura M., Susan L. Averett, and Daniel I. Rees 1997 Welfare Generosity, Pregnancies, and Abortion among Unmarried Recipients. Paper presented to Population Association of America, Washington, DC, March 7.


Blank, Rebecca, C. George, and R. London 1994 State Abortion Rates: The Impact of Policy, Provider Availability, Political Climate, Demography and Economics. Working paper no. 4853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Bloom, D., and K. Sherwood 1994 Matching Opportunities to Obligations: Lessons for Child Support Reform from the Parents' Fair Share Pilot Phase. New York: Manpower Research and Development Corporation.

Bridgman, Anne, and Deborah Phillips, editors 1995 New Findings on Children, Families, and Economic Self-Sufficiency: Summary of a Research Briefing. Board on Children, Youth, and Families, National Research Council and Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.



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Welfare, the Family, and Reproductive Behavior: Report of a Meeting Haskins proposed a small list of child outcomes about which policy makers would be most concerned: whether children stay in school, whether they get a job, and whether they avoid arrest. Social science research needs to focus more on marriage, as distinct from nonmarital fertility, in Lichter's view. Current AFDC rules probably lower the probability that a cohabiting couple will decide to marry, and they lower the probability of remarriage for divorced women. There is a large research literature on "assortative mating," and it would be useful to know, for example, how AFDC affects the probability that a woman can "marry up" in the ranking, whether the income from AFDC allows women to be choosier about potential mates, just as unemployment insurance allows those out of work to be choosier about potential jobs. Researchers have relatively little to offer policy makers who want to know how policies of all sorts (not just AFDC/TANF) may promote marriage, rather than just discourage female headship. To this Bumpass added a concern about understanding cohabitation. One-third of nonmarital births are to cohabiting couples, yet little is known about their childrearing practices or the effect of the stability of the relationship on the children of either partner or their common children. Welfare reform at the federal level is likely to increase, not to end, the need for policy-relevant research findings on the effects of income transfers on demographic behavior and families. At the same time, however, the character and pace of reform are likely to make it more difficult to produce useful and timely research, unless efforts are made to improve the availability of data. REFERENCES Acs, Gregory 1996 The impact of welfare on young mothers' subsequent childbearing decisions. Journal of Human Resources 31(4):898–915. 1995 Do welfare benefits promote out-of-wedlock childbearing? Pp. 51–54 in Isabel Sawhill, ed., Welfare Reform: An Analysis of the Issues. Washington, DC: Urban Institute. Argus, Laura M., Susan L. Averett, and Daniel I. Rees 1997 Welfare Generosity, Pregnancies, and Abortion among Unmarried Recipients. Paper presented to Population Association of America, Washington, DC, March 7. Blank, Rebecca, C. George, and R. London 1994 State Abortion Rates: The Impact of Policy, Provider Availability, Political Climate, Demography and Economics. Working paper no. 4853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Bloom, D., and K. Sherwood 1994 Matching Opportunities to Obligations: Lessons for Child Support Reform from the Parents' Fair Share Pilot Phase. New York: Manpower Research and Development Corporation. Bridgman, Anne, and Deborah Phillips, editors 1995 New Findings on Children, Families, and Economic Self-Sufficiency: Summary of a Research Briefing. Board on Children, Youth, and Families, National Research Council and Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

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Welfare, the Family, and Reproductive Behavior: Report of a Meeting Brien, M., and R. Willis 1996 The costs and consequences of early fatherhood: The impact on young men, young women, and their children. In Rebecca A. Maynard, ed., Kids Having Kids: Economic Costs and Social Consequences of Teen Pregnancy. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press. Brown, Sarah S., and L. Eisenberg 1995 The Best Intentions: Unintended Pregnancy and the Well-being of Children and Families. Committee on Unintended Pregnancy, Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Bumpass, Larry, and Peter Brandon 1996 The Prediction of Unmarried Childbearing Among Women Who Were Unmarried in 1987–88. Paper presented to Population Association of America, New Orleans, May 10. Currie, Janet 1996 The Effect of Welfare on Child Outcomes: What We Know and What We Need to Know. Unpublished paper prepared for the National Research Council Workshop on Welfare Reform and the Family and Reproductive Behavior, Washington, DC, May 2–3. Danziger, Sheldon, George Jakubson, Saul Schwartz, and Eugene Smolensky 1982 Work and welfare as determinants of female poverty and household headship. Quarterly Journal of Economics 97:519–534. Darity, William A., Jr., and Samuel L. Myers 1993 Changes in black family structure: Implications for welfare dependency. American Economic Review 83:59–64. 1995 Family structure and the marginalization of black men: Policy implications. Pp. 263–321 in M. Belinda Tucker and Claudia Mitchell-Kernman, eds., The Decline in Marriage Among African-Americans. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Duncan, Greg J., and Saul D. Hoffman 1990 Welfare, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls. Demography 27:519–535. Gottschalk, Peter 1990 AFDC participation across generations. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 80:367–371. Hill, M. Anne, and June O'Neill 1994 Family endowments and the achievements of young children with special reference to the underclass. Journal of Human Resources 29(4):1064–1100. Hoffman, Saul D., and Greg J. Duncan 1988 A comparison of choice-based multinomial and nested logit models: The family structure and welfare use decisions of divorced or separated women . Journal of Human Resources 23:550–562. 1995 The effect of incomes, wages, and AFDC benefits on marital disruption. Journal of Human Resources 30:19–41. Hoffman, Saul D., and E. Michael Foster 1997 Could It Be True After All? AFDC Benefits and Non-Marital Births to Young Women. Paper presented to Population Association of America, Washington, DC, March 7. Klerman, Jacob 1996 Welfare Reform and Abortion: Research Perspectives. Unpublished paper prepared for the National Research Council Workshop on Welfare Reform and the Family and Reproductive Behavior, Washington, DC, May 2–3. Lichter, Daniel T. 1995 The retreat from marriage and the rise in nonmarital fertility. Pp. 137–146 in National Center for Health Statistics, Report to Congress on Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

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Welfare, the Family, and Reproductive Behavior: Report of a Meeting Lichter, Daniel T., Diane K. McLaughlin, and David C. Ribar 1996 Welfare and the Rise of Female Headed Families. Unpublished paper, Population Research Center, Pennsylvania State University, University Park. Lundberg, Shelly, and Robert D. Plotnick 1990 Adolescent premarital childbearing: Do economic incentives matter? Journal of Labor Economics 13(2):177–200. Matthews, Stephen, David Ribar, and Mark Wilhelm 1995 The Effects of Economic Conditions and Access to Reproductive Health Services on State Abortion and Birth Rates. Unpublished paper, Pennsylvania State University. Maynard, Rebecca, Elisabeth Boehnen, Tom Corbett, and Gary Sandefur, with Jane Mosley 1997 Changing Family-Formation Behavior through Welfare Reform. Unpublished paper, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Meyer, D. 1995 Supporting children born outside of marriage: Do child support awards keep pace with changes in father's incomes? Social Service Quarterly 76 577–593. Moffitt, Robert 1995 The Effect of the Welfare System on Nonmarital Childbearing. Pp. 167–176 in National Center for Health Statistics, Report to Congress on Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 1996 The Effect of Welfare on Marriage and Fertility: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know? Unpublished paper prepared for the National Research Council Workshop on Welfare Reform and the Family and Reproductive Behavior, Washington, DC, May 2–3. Morgan, S. Philip, Kate Offutt, and Ronald R. Rindfuss 1995 Education, Marital Status, and the Changing Age Pattern of American Fertility. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, April 6–8. National Center for Health Statistics 1995 Report to Congress on Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing. Washington, DC : U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Rindfuss, Ronald R., and Karin L. Brewster 1996 Childrearing and fertility. In John Casterline, Ronald Lee, and Karen Foote, eds., Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories. Supplement to vol. 22. Population and Development Review : 260–291. Rosenzweig, Mark R. 1995 Welfare, Marital Prospects and Nonmarital Childbearing. Unpublished paper, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. Schultz, T. Paul 1994 Marital status and fertility in the United States. Journal of Human Resources 29:637–664. U.S. Bureau of the Census 1996 Statistical Abstracts of the United States, 1996. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce. Wilson, William Julius 1987 The Truly Disadvantaged. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Wiseman, Michael 1996 Welfare reform in the United States: A background paper. Housing Policy Debate 4:595–648.