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Box I.4.1 Recommendations for Leadership and
Management in the Atmospheric Sciences
• Develop a strategic viewpoint to shape an
increasingly distributed national structure for providing
atmospheric information from a variety of governmental and
private-sector organizations.
• Maintain the free and open exchange of
atmospheric observations among all countries, and preserve the free
and open exchange of data among scientists.
• Develop a clear understanding of the
benefits and costs of weather and climate services.
Two primary consequences of the contemporary information
revolution for atmospheric sciences and services are the
following:
1. Quantitative information on nearly any topic is readily
available on global information networks. Individuals with a modem
and a computer have unprecedented resources for examining global
weather and climate data, visualizations, and predictions. What was
once the province of government supercomputers is now common
currency.
2. Computer-to-computer communication enables weather-dependent
enterprises to incorporate atmospheric information more readily
into their decision making. Four-dimensional data bases containing
the classical meteorological variables can be transformed into
four-dimensional data bases containing variables of interest to
users and critical to their decisions.
The full implications for public and private weather services
are not yet clear, but it is obvious that rapid change is in
progress.
A Changing System for Providing
Weather Services
From the beginning of organized attempts to forecast weather
events a century or so ago, nearly all observation networks and
both national and global analysis and prediction services have been
instituted, funded, and managed by national governments. In the
United States, public forecasts and warnings of severe weather are
the responsibility of the National Weather Service (NWS). The
centralized model has served this and other nations well in many
respects, leading to greatly improved observations and the
impressive weather prediction capabilities enjoyed today in all
developed countries.
As communications capabilities improved, weather information
became a potential source of competitive advantage or profit.
Private-sector weather fore-
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cast firms developed products of special interest to their
clients, television stations sought weather presentations that
would attract and retain viewers, and The Weather Channel
created a 24-hour nationwide weather information distribution
service using NWS data and supported by advertisers. Universities
in the United States created a capability and infrastructure to
distribute weather data for academic purposes (Fulker et al.,
1997), and the private sector similarly created distribution
capabilities to meet the data and information needs of a wide
variety of clients. Electronic digital communication made it
possible for the government to contract with the private sector to
provide aviation weather and flight planning capabilities to pilots
who have access to a computer and a modem. Data from each of the
more than 100 Doppler Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) radar units
installed as part of the modernization of the National Weather
Service are collected on site by four private firms and made
available in various forms, including national and regional
mosaics, for both private and public purposes. Today, the World
Wide Web offers an amazing quantity and diversity of weather
information,1 provided by
government agencies, the private sector, academic institutions, and
individuals, to those willing to search for it and use it.
Specialized short-range numerical prediction models have been
developed at several universities, and in addition to education and
research, some are being employed to produce weather predictions
available to the public. A survey (Auciello and Lavoie, 1993)
showed that 11 NWS Weather Forecast Offices are involved in direct
collaboration with universities in such research and service
activities; another 8 are associated with federal research
organizations; and the Cooperative Program for Operational
Meteorology, Education, and Training has supported fifteen
collaborative research projects involving NWS forecasters and
cooperating researchers.
Despite the richness of the meteorological feast, it is
important to keep in mind that all of this information is based on
government-financed observations, computer analyses and
predictions, and on the research that makes improved approaches
possible.
Prospects for Atmospheric
Information
Contemporary approaches to atmospheric information focus on user
activities, provide more specific local information, are integrated
quantitatively into formal decision systems operated by the user,
and in some cases take advantage of expert systems and machine
learning approaches.
The national weather information partnership is changing at a
rapid rate, in part because new approaches and technology favor the
development of strong
1 A search of
the World Wide Web science and technology category in June 1996
using the keyword ''weather'' produced a list of 7.211 entries; one
of the first listed provided links to a wide variety of sources of
current weather information.
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relationships between private-sector meteorologists and their
clients. Indeed, the private sector is an increasingly significant
employer of atmospheric scientists. Furthermore, forecast services
focused on particular industries or economic sectors are
increasingly likely to be privatized.
The combination of increasing communication bandwidth and
increasing computational power in workstations will enable new
approaches to regional or local weather or air quality prediction.
The key idea is to combine NWS predictions based on global data
with the power of workstations to produce local forecasts. Thus,
NWS predictions represented as a four-dimensional data base on
regional grids for a forecast period in a range of days will be the
input data for workstation models tailored to specific activities
and locations (NRC, 1994a). Quantitative predictions of variables
critical to user activities will then be incorporated into
numerical or other decision models that they use to manage their
enterprises. The work of many atmospheric scientists will focus on
helping users create models of their own activities, controlling
the flow of information to them, and assisting in making key
operational decisions.
Similar innovations can be expected as current experimental
approaches to predicting climate variations on interannual and
longer time scales demonstrate success. Successful models and
methods will be employed to develop forecasts for specific
applications and will operate in nested hierarchies to produce
regional and local forecasts of climate variations.
As an extension of these ideas, forecasts tailored to the
activities of specific requesters may become available
interactively through the Internet, the Web, or other communication
systems. In this case, forecast systems might produce scenarios of
weather, air quality, climate, or near-Earth space events in
response to a user's electronic request and deliver them as a
visualization, perhaps in a time-space format.2 It is conceivable that such
capabilities might be provided by advertisers or as a service to
customers by firms that have close ties with particular
industries.
Implications of Distributed
Atmospheric Information Services
The issue before all of the partners in the atmospheric sciences
is whether the evolution to a more distributed national atmospheric
information system is to occur with or without strategic guidance
and some attempt at design of an optimal system.
At one end of the spectrum of possible action, it could be
argued that the information revolution enables the emergence of an
efficient buyer's market in
2 A prototype
of such presentations may be found in the flight weather cross
sections that were long ago prepared manually for pilots of
cross-country flights. Drawn in height versus distance (or time)
along the flight path, these cross sections depicted weather
phenomena that the forecaster expected the flight to encounter.
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atmospheric data and predictions and that eventually the entire
process can be relegated, perhaps with some government support, to
the private sector. At the other end of the spectrum, it can be
argued that the federal responsibility to provide warnings of
severe weather to protect lives and property and to provide
atmospheric information and forecasts critical to enhancing safety,
health, and economic vitality cannot be delegated.
The model now emerging lies somewhere between these two
extremes. The government retains responsibility for warnings and
predictions to protect life and property and, as a consequence,
retains the responsibility for acquiring and processing the
observations necessary to perform this function. Moreover, in
support of this mission, the government retains the responsibility
for generating state-of-the-science numerical atmospheric
predictions that are the basis for predictions of variables
relevant to user needs and decision-making processes.
There are important issues here; whose resolution is important
to all of the partners. What criteria should govern the design of
an optimal atmospheric information system? Should the government
seek to recover costs of observations from the public by mechanisms
other than taxes? Who is to be responsible for forecasts for
critical activities such as agriculture and aviation? Should
federal agencies be responsible for supporting research to improve
forecasts for such critical activities? What is the appropriate
role for academic research, both basic and applied, in such an
evolving weather information system, and how should such research
be supported so that it remains vigorous and contributes to
national goals? The answers to such questions depend in part on
financial and political considerations and will require
discipline-wide planning and leadership.
Leadership and Management
Recommendation 2:
Ensure Access to Atmospheric Information
The federal government should move
forthrightly and aggressively to protect the advance of atmospheric
research and services by maintaining the free and open exchange of
atmospheric observations among all countries and by preserving the
free and open exchange of data among scientists.
The increasing dependence on distributed capabilities has
significant implications for access to atmospheric data and
information. As the capabilities for exchanging information
increase, so do the political pressures for seeking local advantage
and restricting exchange. Moreover, as electronic data become more
valuable to some industries, they will advocate schemes to limit
access to such data that would have adverse consequences for
atmospheric and other sciences (NRC, 1995a).
Some countries have eschewed a direct responsibility for weather
information or warnings and have privatized the national capability
(e.g., Japan and New
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Zealand) or created independent subsidiaries (e.g., Great
Britain). Such approaches are being promoted by some individuals in
this country.
Some countries are marketing and selling their weather data and
information in order to recover some of the costs of acquiring it,
and therefore are restricting the availability to other countries
and other weather services that might provide channels for the data
to be used in competition with their national service. Obviously,
such restrictions run counter to the historical trends that made
all weather data available on a global basis in order to support
global forecasts that serve all nations. Climate and global air
quality research has also become international, requiring the same
vigilance in protecting data access, quality, continuity, and
comparability.
Two principles have long governed the traditional U.S. view and
should be maintained vigorously:
1. Data acquired for public purposes with public funds should be
publicly available at no more than the marginal cost of
reproduction or transmission.
2. The free and open exchange of atmospheric observations by all
countries will enhance atmospheric research and understanding and
improve atmospheric services for all nations and their
citizens.
The critical point for atmospheric data implicit in the
principles cited above is that competitive or economic advantage
should be gained with value added to the basic data through
analysis, visualization, or prediction methodologies, not by
restricting the flow of data themselves. The increasing
capabilities of computers and communications have created global
markets and global financial venues that are transforming private
industry at an astounding speed. They will similarly transform
atmospheric data, information, and services throughout the world.
Attempts to restrict the flow of meteorological information are not
wise in a world that requires a global view for success, health,
and prosperity.
Leadership and Management
Recommendation 3:
Assess Benefits and Costs
The atmospheric science community, through
the collaboration of appropriate agencies and advisory and
professional organizations, should initiate interdisciplinary
studies of the benefits and costs of weather, climate, and
environmental information services.
There are a number of reasons for embarking on a thorough
examination of benefits and costs across the full range of
atmospheric services. First, better understanding of the
relationships between benefits and costs of atmospheric information
in a wide range of private- and public-sector activities is
essential to formulate more effective scientific and service
strategies for the atmospheric
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sciences (Johnson and Holt, 1997). Second, this understanding is
required by federal agencies to motivate and justify investments in
both research and operations, and to ensure that funds invested in
atmospheric research and services are highly leveraged in providing
benefits related to national goals.
Another important reason is to identify which new directions in
research or services will provide benefits to a wide range of
public and private interests. For example, the optimization of
observing systems should, in the contemporary environment, proceed
past the generic needs of weather and climate analysis and
prediction to examine a wide range of specific needs and
opportunities in applications such as transportation, health,
environmental engineering, and mitigation of flood damage.
Furthermore, forecast accuracy, the costs of preparation to
mitigate damage, and the costs of damage when no preparation occurs
all interact to produce guidelines for optimum strategies that will
vary with activity and acceptance of risk. Similar arguments are
presented by Pielke and Kimple (1997).
Katz and Murphy (1997) have noted that the difficulty in
assessing the costs and benefits of atmospheric information is due
partly to its multidisciplinary nature. Besides meteorology, such
an undertaking must include the disciplines of economics,
psychology, and statistics, as well as the allied fields of
management science and operations research. Furthermore, most of
the studies of benefits and costs available in the literature
either examine specific applications or are formulated as case
studies; an exception is a benefit-cost analysis related to the
modernization of the NWS (Chapman, 1992).
A comprehensive and rigorous assessment of benefits and costs,
involving collaboration among members of the atmospheric
information partnership and a number of other disciplines,
therefore is required.
Federal Funding of Atmospheric
Research and Services
The U.S. government has supported atmospheric observations and
data analysis for more than 100 years and atmospheric research for
more than 50 years. Various mechanisms for coordinating atmospheric
research and services over these years have left a record that
allows us to compare progress, funding levels, and coordination
schemes. Today, accurate budget information is essential to wise
leadership and management of a complex endeavor, in order to assess
its effectiveness, balance, and commitment to initiatives and to
plan for the future.
Formal federal coordination of atmospheric research began in
1959 when the Federal Council for Science and Technology created
the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS),
which existed to the end of the Bush administration, when it became
known as the Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research (SAR) of the
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES), one of
several groups covered by the umbrella of the Federal Coordinating
Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET) chaired
by the President's science adviser. As explained below, this system
has been modified substantially in the Clinton administration.
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Figure 1.4.1
Federal funding for atmospheric science and global change research in both current
and constant FY 1994 dollars. Estimates for atmospheric science research for FY 1960
-1990 are from summaries prepared by the Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research, and
FY 1994 is a BASC estimate obtained as described in text from data gathered by the
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. Estimates of global change research
are derived from documents prepared by the U.S. Global Change Research Program as
part of the President's budget. It should be noted that the global change budget includes
research areas other than atmospheric science. The GDP deflation factor used to scale to
the 1994 data was obtained from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) price deflator (e.g.,
National Science Board, 1996, Appendix 4.1) by shifting to 1994 and then taking the
reciprocal to obtain a multiplicative factor.
Funding for Atmospheric Research
The first comprehensive summary of federal expenditures for
atmospheric research was published by ICAS in 1960. Similar
summaries were assembled, somewhat sporadically, until the most
recent one prepared by SAR in 1990.
The evolution of funding for atmospheric research as portrayed
by ICAS-SAR summaries is shown in Figure I.4.1, along with an
estimate of the 1994 research budget3 assembled by the Board on Atmospheric
Sciences and Climate (BASC) by surveying the agencies. In these
data, some of the global change
3 These data
are now somewhat out of date, but in the absence of a formal
coordinating mechanism for atmospheric research, information on
federal expenditures can be assembled only by surveying individual
agencies. The last comprehensive compilation was the 1994 Committee
on the Environment and Natural Resources research inventory used to
prepare some of the analyses presented here.
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TABLE I.4.1 Definition of Functions for BASC's
Summary of the CENR
Function
Definition
Data acquisition management
Acquisition, processing, and management of data
from and observing systems or numerical models
Forecasts
Research related to improving forecasts or
applications of meteorological, climatological, and environmental
information in public and private sectors
Observing systems
Development or operation of individual,
project-related observing and data systems to acquired atmospheric
observations for research purposes
Observing and data system investments
Development and manufacture of multipurpose
observing and data systems for atmospheric research and
operations
Process studies
Theoretical. observational, and laboratory studies
of atmospheric or related processes at all scales
Theory and modeling
Theoretical studies of atmospheric phenomena and
development of numerical models and their research applications
research efforts are included in broader atmospheric
research categories; thus, the estimates are not additive.
Moreover, whereas atmospheric research funds are for direct
research expenditures and concomitant infrastructural support, the
total for global change research includes a variety of efforts in
other disciplines, such as ecology, ocean sciences, and social
science.
An effort to assemble a national research inventory began in
November 1993 when President Clinton established the National
Science and Technology Council (NSTC) as a replacement for FCCSET
and ordered it "to undertake . . . an across-the-board review of
federal spending on research and development." In response, the
Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) asked
each agency to provide narrative and budget material describing
environmental R&D programs and activities in FY 1994. CENR
agencies produced 509 project descriptions, of which some one
hundred described atmospheric science research activities. Some
1,000 descriptions, augmented by National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) data on missions for solar and near-Earth
space research, were used to prepare the analyses in this section.
Although the difficulties of constructing a meaningful budget
summary from the disparate sources are recognized, FY 1994 was the
last year for which a considerable body of data is available.
To aid understanding of the distribution of funds within
atmospheric science, BASC used the CENR project summaries to allot
funds to five functions and to each of the five disciplinary areas
represented in Part II of this report; funds allocated to related
areas (e.g., societal impact, assessment of indoor air quality)
were excluded. Definitions of the functions are given in Table
I.4.1, and a
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TABLE 1.4.2 Atmospheric Research and
Infrastructural Investments, 1994 (million dollars)
Category
Storm Dynamics
Climate
Atmospheric Physics
Atmospheric Chemistry
Outer Atmosphere
Total
Research Expenditures
Data acquisition and management
5
180
27
23
63
298
Forecasts and applications
29
45
8
12
0
94
Observing systems
66
71
54
6
24
221
Process studies
3
45
51
38
16
153
Theory and modeling
16
86
18
31
3
154
Subtotal
119
427
158
110
106
920
Observing and Data Systems Investments
NWS AWIPS
43
43
NWS ASOS and NEXRAD
263
88
351
NESDIS environmental satellite systems
249
125
374
Defense military satellite program
26
26
EOS data and information system
194
194
EOS flights
255
255
Mission development solar and near-Earth space
missions Subtotal
581
662
64
1,307
Total Research and Related Activities
700
1,089
158
110
170
2,227
SOURCE. Compiled by BASC from CENR research
projects inventory for 1994 and NASA data on solar and near-Earth
space missions m progress or development in 1994. Allocation of
expenditures reported in the CENR project descriptions to
categories in this table was done by BASC, in some cases
subjectively.
summary of expenditures is presented in Table I.4.2. Many of the
expenditures listed for climate are part of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program.
The distribution of funding for atmospheric research by agency
is shown in Table I.4.3, which was constructed from CENR inventory
data and data on total FY 1994 research funding supplied to BASC by
the agencies. A summary of agency estimates from the 1990 SAR
analysis is shown for comparison. In some cases, base funding
included in agency figures was not included in the CENR inventory
data; in other cases, infrastructural expenses were not included in
the agency estimate.4
4 Note,
however, CENR data can be used to provide an independent estimate
of total funding for atmospheric research by assuming that only
part of the expenditures for data and observing systems should be
assigned to research. For example, the CENR total for research
projects, added to one-quarter of the total for data and observing
systems, gives an estimate of $1,246 million compared to the agency
estimate of $1,196 million
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TABLE I.4.3 Agency Expenditures for Research and
Related Activities, FY 1990 and 1994 (million dollars)
Agency Reports
Compiled from CENR Data
Department or Agency
FY 1990 (SAR 1990)
FY 1994 (reported to BASC)
CENR Research Projects
Data and Observing Systems
Agency Total
Commerce
73
254
175
768
943
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
509
506
390
513
903
Energy
45
93
107
0
107
Defense
122
67
71
26
97
Environmental Protection Agency
21
84
84
0
84
National Science Foundation
106
135
77
0
77
Interior
25
15
14
0
14
Agriculture
15
16
1
0
1
Transportation
13
26
1
0
1
Total
929
1,196
920
1,307
2,227
SOURCE: Compiled by BASC from CENR research
projects inventory for 1994 and NASA data on solar and near-Earth
space missions in progress or development in 1994.
Because of these and other shortcomings in atmospheric sciences
budget data, the analyses and summaries presented here involve
subjective judgment but still give a rough sense of the magnitude
and distribution of federal funding in the atmospheric sciences.
Nevertheless, key questions regarding balance, focus, and
year-to-year changes in federal funding of atmospheric research
cannot be answered because of the lack of substantive budget data
and analysis.
Funding for Atmospheric Information
Services
The national investment in atmospheric sciences includes federal
expenditures for the acquisition and management of atmospheric
observations, preparation of forecasts and warnings, and
distribution of atmospheric information to a wide variety of users
in the private and public sectors. It would be of value to estimate
private expenditures to provide and procure atmospheric
information, a topic about which little is known.
In sharp contrast to the difficulties in assembling research
budget summaries, the federal expenditures for meteorological
operations are summarized in detail each year by the Office of the
Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The funding history
since 1969 is shown in Figure I.4.2, and the distribution of FY
1994 expenditures by agency is given in Table I.4.4.
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Figure I.4.2
Federal funding for atmospheric information services (often referred to as operational
meteorology) for FY 1969-1995 as summarized by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, in both current and constant FY 1994
dollars (see legend for Figure I.4.1 for further details).
TABLE I.4.4 Federal Expenditures for
Meteorological Operations, FY 1994 (million dollars)
Department or Agency
Budget
Agriculture
12
Commerce (NOAA)
National Weather Service
7230
National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service
401
1,124
Defense
506
Interior
Bureau of Land Management
1
Transportation
FAA
360
Coast Guard
7
367
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
8
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
<1
Total
2,018
SOURCE: Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorology and Supporting Services, with adjustments from data
furnished directly by agencies.
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It should be understood that the funding for research and
related activities (Table I.4.3) and those for meteorological
operations (Table I.4.4) are not strictly additive since there are
likely to be some overlaps in the reported data.
Summary of Federal Funding
The distribution of federal funding for weather information
services is well documented, but funding within key categories of
atmospheric research is known only approximately. The question of
whether the United States has a balanced and appropriately focused
research effort in the atmospheric sciences cannot be answered at
present. Obtaining more detailed budgeting information is critical
for determining whether important tasks have sufficient support and
whether important initiatives are being given appropriate
priority.
Leadership and Management
Planning
Many government agencies have interest and involvement in
atmospheric research and operations because of the intimate
relations between atmospheric phenomena and events and many of the
nation's activities. Before it was disbanded, SAR coordinated the
research efforts of some 10 agencies. OFCM coordinates operational
meteorology through a number of committees and activities. An
effective coordinating mechanism for advancing and managing the
U.S. Global Change Research Program was developed by CEES under
FCCSET and has continued under CENR. The U.S. Weather Research
Program is similarly organized and managed to focus on improving
understanding and prediction of storm-scale phenomena. A
significant component of atmospheric chemistry is coordinated
through the North American Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone program
and the CENR Subcommittee on Air Quality Research. These
interagency interests indicate clearly the breadth of the
atmospheric sciences and their importance to the nation.
As evident from this report, the advance of atmospheric science
requires that appropriate priorities be determined and implemented
so that the research enterprise remains vigorous and focused on
activities important in the context of broad national goals.
No One Sets the Priorities; No One
Fashions the Agenda
Today, there is reason for considerable concern about planning
for atmospheric research. No one sets the priorities; no one
fashions the agenda. In part, this is a consequence of the attempt
to direct federal research efforts toward a number of strategic
initiatives managed by the National Science and Technology Council.
In this structure, atmospheric science is viewed as a potential
contributor to a number of cross-cutting issues such as global
change or natural disasters.
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However, for the efforts of atmospheric sciences to serve
national needs effectively, they must be integrated into research
approaches that serve a number of initiatives simultaneously.
Moreover, this integration must recognize that the scientific
advances needed to facilitate progress in addressing strategic
issues, whatever their interdisciplinary motivation, will occur
within the disciplines themselves.
Thus, BASC believes that a national research environment
requires a strong disciplinary planning mechanism. This view is
reinforced by the very basic contemporary reality for atmospheric
sciences and the nation: opportunities for scientific progress and
societal service in the atmospheric sciences are far more plentiful
than resources. For this reason, the efforts of the discipline must
be guided by an overall vision and reasoned priorities.
Therefore, all partners in the atmospheric enterprise—in
government, in universities, and in a variety of commercial
undertakings—must join together as an effective team focused
on the future. For this to come to pass, there must be clear
responsibilities for priorities and progress, for resources and
results.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
atmospheric information
