Water for the Future

The West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel, and Jordan

Committee on Sustainable Water Supplies for the Middle East

Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities

Palestine Academy for Science and Technology

Royal Scientific Society, Jordan

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1999



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--> Water for the Future The West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel, and Jordan Committee on Sustainable Water Supplies for the Middle East Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities Palestine Academy for Science and Technology Royal Scientific Society, Jordan U.S. National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999

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--> NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council and by competent authorities of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities, the Royal Scientific Society of Jordan, and the Palestine Academy for Science and Technology. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the Casey Program Fund and the Arthur Day Program Fund of the U.S. National Research Council Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organization that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-80489 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06421-X Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-264-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Cover art: Watercolor by Marc Castelli, Chestertown, Md., after photograph by David Policansky. Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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--> Committee on Sustainable Water Supplies for the Middle East GILBERT F. WHITE, Chair, University of Colorado, Boulder YOUSIF ATALLA ABU-SAFIEH, State Ministry for Environmental Affairs, Palestinian National Authority, Gaza AYMAN A. AL-HASSAN, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan RADWAN A. AL-WESHAH, University of Jordan, Amman KAREN ASSAF, Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Palestinian Water Authority, El Bireh/Ramallah, West Bank YORAM AVNIMELECH, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. CHARLES D.D. HOWARD, Charles Howard and Associates, Ltd., Victoria, British Columbia IRWIN H. KANTROWITZ, U.S. Geological Survey (retired), Tallahassee, Florida RAYMOND LOEHR, The University of Texas, Austin AYMAN I. RABI, Palestinian Hydrology Group, Shufat-Jerusalem URIEL N. SAFRIEL, Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Sede Boqer Campus of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel ELIAS SALAMEH, University of Jordan, Amman JOSEPH SHALHEVET, Agricultural Research Organization, Bet Dagan, Israel HENRY J. VAUX, JR., University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Oakland Staff SHEILA D. DAVID, Senior Program Officer, NRC Water Science and Technology Board (through 7/97); Consultant (through 12/98) DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Senior Program Officer, NRC Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology MICHAEL P. GREENE, Director, Middle East Programs, NRC Office of International Affairs JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate, NRC Water Science and Technology Board

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--> Israel Academy Of Sciences And Humanities The Israel Academy consists of seventy of Israel's most distinguished scientists and scholars. It is managed by a council consisting of a president, vice president, chairmen for the sciences and the humanities, and an executive director. The president is appointed directly by the president of the state, upon the recommendation of the Academy council. Professor Jacob Ziv is the current president. The governing regulations of the Academy are self-determined, in consultation with the minister of education and culture. The Academy is divided into two major sections: natural sciences and humanities. Both share equal responsibility in conducting the Academy's affairs. The Israel Academy represents the Israeli scientific community in national and international fora. It also initiates and sponsors selected scholarly projects, conferences and publications, often in conjunction with academic bodies abroad. The Academy also founded and provides administrative support to the Israel Science Foundation (ISF), and administers several other privately sponsored national grants and scholarship programs. Palestine Academy For Science And Technology The Palestine Academy for Science and Technology is an autonomous, government-supervised, nonprofit organization that is mandated to represent the Palestinian national instrument for making strategic investment in Palestine's capability and potential in science and technology, in that science and technology should impact the Palestinian national economy and improve the quality of life for all Palestinians. As such, the Academy represents the Palestinian commitment to respond to the science and technology and research and development needs of the Palestinian private and public sectors. In this role, the Academy represents the focal point to a wide scientific and technological Palestinian network that is geared towards capacity building of the Palestinian R&D; promotion and application of science and technology as a tool for socioeconomic development; and advising the government on science and technology issues. Royal Scientific Society, Jordan The Royal Scientific Society (RSS) was established in 1970 in accordance with a Royal Decree. Since its inception, His Royal Highness Crown

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--> Prince El-Hassan has sponsored its march and was chairman of its Board of Trustees. In April 1987 the Higher Council for Science and Technology (HCST) was established under the chairmanship of His Royal Highness Crown Prince El-Hassan. HCST replaced the RSS Board of Trustees and RSS became one of its affiliated institutions. RSS is a nonprofit institution enjoying financial and administrative independence. It aims at conducting scientific and technological research and development work related to the development process in Jordan with special attention to industrial research and services. It also aims at disseminating awareness in the scientific and technological fields and at providing specialized technical consultations and services to the public and private sectors. It seeks to develop scientific and technological cooperation with similar institutions within the Arab world and internationally. U.S. National Academy Of Sciences The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify

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--> issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Acknowledgments Many individuals assisted the committee in its task by participating in committee meetings, helping to plan field trips, and providing background information. The committee is especially thankful to the participants from the science academies and councils who met September 4-5, 1995 in Amman, Jordan, and agreed upon a scope of work. They are as follows: Mr. Sami Abbasi Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Jordan Dr. Ali Al Ghazawi Royal Scientific Society, Jordan Dr. Bruce M. Alberts, President U.S. National Academy of Sciences Dr. Lindsay H. Allen University of California, Davis Dr. Sa'id Alloush, President Royal Scientific Society, Jordan Dr. Fathi Arafat, President Palestine Higher Health Council

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--> Dr. Khaled Elshuraydeh Deputy Secretary General Higher Council for Science and Technology, Jordan Dr. David L. Freyberg, Stanford University Chair, Water Science and Technology Board (July 1994–June 1997) U.S. National Research Council Mr. Ahmed Hatamleh Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Jordan Dr. Naim A. Ismail, Executive Director Environmental Health Central Unit Palestinian Higher Health Council Professor Ibrahim Khatib Jordan University for Science and Technology Dr. Hani Mulki, President (May 1989–June 1997) Royal Scientific Society of Jordan Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland, Foreign Secretary U.S. National Academy of Sciences Dr. Kenneth I. Shine, President Institute of Medicine U.S. National Academy of Sciences Professor Menahem Yaari, Vice President Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities Dr. Meir Zadok, Director Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities The committee would also like to express appreciation to others who attended committee meetings and provided background information, those who assisted in making arrangements for the field trips, and the hosts for the committee meetings. They are:

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--> February 14-16, 1996, Meeting Washington, D.C. Dr. James Crook, Black & Veatch Consulting Engineers, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Dr. Jeffrey Goodsen, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C., USA Dr. Daniel Okun, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA Dr. Alexander McPhail, World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA Dr. Roy Popkin, Consultant, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA Dr. Aaron Wolf, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, USA June 17-19, 1996, Meeting Amman, Jordan Dr. Munther Haddadin, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan Dr. Uri Shamir, Water Research Institute, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Participants for Field Trip Mr. Mohammed Abu Taha, ZAI Water Works Mr. Faza Saleh, King Abdullah Canal Hosts Dr. Hani Mulki, President, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan (1989-1997) Dr. Sa'id Alloush, Vice President, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan Ms. Samar Al-Rabadi, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan September 18-20, 1996, Meeting Haifa, Israel Participants for Field Trip Dr. Aric Belkind, Regional Water Council Dr. Jonathan Ben Zur, Mekoroth Water Company, Ltd. Dr. Giora Shacham, Tznobar Company

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--> Hosts Dr. Yoram Avnimelech, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Ms. Sandra Hesseg, Water Research Institute, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology Professor Israela Revina, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Dr. Uri Shamir, Water Research Institute, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Dr. Zehev Tador, President, Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa Dr. Meir Zadok, Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities, Jerusalem, Israel Reviewers This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Khairy Al Jamal, Palestinian Water Authority Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University, Stanford, California Nathan Buras, University of Arizona, Tucson Ingrid C. Burke, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins Paul L. Busch, Malcolm Pirnie, Inc., White Plains, New York John Cairns, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Emeritus) Hazim El-Naser, Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Amman, Jordan Wilford R. Gardner, University of California, Berkeley (Retired) Philip E. LamOreaux, LaMoreaux & Associates, Inc., Tuscaloosa, Alabama Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland, College Park Yossi Segal, Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities A. Dan Tarlock, IIT Chicago Kent College of Law, Chicago, Illinois While the individuals listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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--> Preface Representatives of the principal science councils of Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and the United States first met in Washington, D.C., in 1994, to consider ways in which they might collaborate for the mutual benefit of their communities. After canvassing a range of problems of vital and common interest, they concluded that the most critical of these problems was ensuring sustainable water supplies in the Middle East. They decided to develop a joint study using the approach of the National Research Council (e.g., use of volunteer, multidisciplinary experts to write consensus reports on science and technology issues). They then appointed a committee with members from Israel, Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the United States, and Canada. This report is the result. The Committee on Sustainable Water Supplies for the Middle East was formed by the U.S. National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine; the Royal Scientific Society, Jordan; the Palestine Health Council; and the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities and has been supported by funds from the U.S. National Research Council. The plans for this study were developed during a meeting of the scientific Academies and Councils of the Middle East Region in Amman, Jordan in 1995. There was little precedent for the committee's specific task. Specifying the criteria for sustainable development of an area's water resources, including the maintenance of natural support systems, was relatively new.

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--> Additionally, identifying the scientific and research components of such an appraisal without linking them to specific development plans and allocations was also new. Moreover, this study was one of few occasions on which the U.S. National Research Council had ventured such a cooperative undertaking with scientists in other countries. And for Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority organizations, the study was unprecedented. While representatives of natural science academies had consulted briefly on such issues as population policy, this was a new undertaking. The standard review process of the U.S. National Research Council was modified to include the presidents of all four scientific organizations and other scientists from all four countries. Notwithstanding a good deal of discussion in international scientific circles, there have been very few attempts to apply definitions and measurements of indices of sustainable development of water resources in a unified fashion to one area, as is documented in this report. Reports resulting from many of the previous management studies are listed in the bibliography. There has also been a notable lack of integration of social and economic considerations with considerations of ecosystem health and services, especially as they are related to biodiversity. The committee has sought to integrate these considerations in its approach to this study. The study area is defined as all parts of Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Although other countries east of the Mediterranean, often encompassed by the term ''Middle East," have somewhat similar landscapes and hydrologic features, it was necessary to confine the study to this area as lying wholly within the committee's concern. The committee sought to canvass the full range of alternatives—physical, biological, and social that might be considered in sustaining the water supplies of the study area. Each option was then assessed with regard to its likely effects on the sustainability of the systems involved. Options that are currently practicable were distinguished from those that might be achieved through further research. Additionally, the committee has applied the basic principle of seeking fairness to both present and future generations by considering intergenerational equity in all of its appraisal. While the committee was aware of many specific proposals for managing water supplies in the study area and neighboring areas, it explicitly refrained from making recommendations about specific development programs and political policies. The committee did attempt to appraise the state of scientific and technologic knowledge of water supplies that would be basic for any sound management program. The conduct of the study included meetings in Israel, Jordan, and the United States, and field inspections of representative areas such as the Yarmuk and Jordan valleys and the Hula Valley. It also drew on the

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--> written and oral contributions from many people familiar with water resources and problems throughout the study area. Careful attention was paid to the substantial bodies of research findings from universities and research groups in the cooperating countries and other areas, including those named in the acknowledgments and bibliography. While during the period of the study the international political scene in the study area was marked by tensions and contending charges, this situation did not color or interfere with the participation of committee members or scientific agencies from which they drew information and expert opinion. This final report was unanimously approved by all committee members and reflects a friendly process of frank discussion and mutual learning that it is hoped will be continued by scientists and scholars. This cooperative spirit was seen even in the unprecedented process of peer review by representatives of four political communities. The frank, constructive tone of the committee deliberations would not have been possible without the sympathetic support of the members of the cooperating institutions and individuals named in the acknowledgments, and of a committee staff deeply respected for its scientific rigor and administrative competence. These staff were Sheila David and David Policansky, who had the administrative assistance of Jeanne Aquilino and the collaboration of WSTB director Stephen Parker. Individual committee members participated in preparing this final document in a variety of ways. All shared the sense that this was a unique opportunity, a chance to demonstrate the ability of concerned scientists and engineers to jointly help lay the groundwork for peaceful solutions to issues of critical social and environmental import in the foreseeable future. Gilbert F. White, Chair, Committee on Sustainable Water Supplies for the Middle East

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--> Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1     The Study Area and Water Use   2     Water, Biodiversity, and the Environment   3     Hydrologic Relationships and Water Resources Planning   4     Selected Options for the Future   5 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND   10     Water Agreements   12     Role of the Sponsoring Organizations   13     Water, Socioeconomic Development, and Sustainability   14     Sustainability, Intergenerational Equity, and Freshwater Resources in the Middle East   16     Water Quality, Water Quantity, and Ecosystem Service   19     The Committee's Approach to the Present Study   20     References   22 2 THE STUDY AREA AND PATTERNS OF WATER USE   24     Population and Economy   25     Landscapes   28     Climate   30     Hydrology   33     Water Use   48     The Importance of Hydrologic Relationships in the Study Area   51     Recommendations   52     References   52

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--> 3 FACTORS AFFECTING PATTERNS OF WATER USE   54     Projected Supply-Demand Disparities and Water Resources Planning   55     Factors that Affect Water Use   57     Criteria for Selecting Among Water Use Management Options   63     References   64 4 WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT   66     Ecosystem Services   67     Biological Diversity   70     Environmental Costs of Water-Resource Development   75     Mitigation   90     Recommendations   95     References   98 5 OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE: BALANCING WATER DEMAND AND WATER RESOURCES   100     Managing Demand   100     Augmenting Available Supplies   116     Conclusions   158     References   164 APPENDIXES     A   EXCERPTS FROM THE TREATY OF PEACE BETWEEN THE STATE OF ISRAEL AND THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN   171 B   EXCERPTS FROM THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN INTERIM AGREEMENT ON THE WEST BANK AND GAZA STRIP   182 C   EFFECTS OF WATER USE ON BIODIVERSITY IN THE STUDY AREA   195 D   GUIDELINES FOR REHABILITATION OF RIVERS   203 E   BIBLIOGRAPHY   211 F   LIST OF MEETING PLACES AND DATES   220 G   COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLIES FOR THE MIDDLE EAST BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES   221