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{-at- l~- OPPORTUNITIES IN Misery Committee to Survey Opportunities in the Chemical Sciences Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Wash~ngtorl, D.~. 1985

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. Support for this project was provided by the American Chemical Society, the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Grant No. AFOSR-83-0323, the Council for Chemical Research, Inc., the Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation, Inc., the U.S. Department of Energy under Grant No. DE-FG02-81ER10984, the National Institutes of Health under Grant No. CHE-8301035, the National Bureau of Standards under Contract No. NB835BCA2075, and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CHE-8301035. Support was also provided by the following industrial companies: Aluminum Company of America, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Calgon Corporation, Celanese Research Company, Dow Chemical Company, Eastman Kodak Company, E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Inc., Exxon Corporation, General Electric Company, GTE Laboratories, Inc., Johnson and Johnson Company, Mobay Chemical Company, Mobil Research and Development Corpora- tion, Monsanto Company, Pfizer, Inc., Phillips Petroleum Company, PPG Industries, Inc., Proctor and Gamble Company, Shell Development Company, Standard Oil Company (Ohio), Stauffer Chemical Company, TRW, Inc., and Copyright ~ 1985 by the National Academy of Sciences U.S. Steel Corporation. No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the United States Government. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 85-62586 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03594-5, soft cover International Standard Book Number 0-309-03633-X, hard cover Printed in the United States of America

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Committee to Survey Opportunities in the Chemical Sciences GEORGE C. PIMENTEL (Chairman), University of California, Berkeley ALLEN J. BARD, The University of Texas at Austin FRED BASOLO, Northwestern University JOHN H. BIRELY, Los Alamos National Laboratory JOHN I. BRAUMAN, Stanford University HARRY G. DRICKAMER, University of Illinois, Urbana HANS-G. ELIAS, Dow Chemical Co. MOSTAFA A. EL-SAYED, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID A. EVANS, Harvard University JOSEF FRIED, University of Chicago GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory HARRY B. GRAY, California Institute of Technology VLADIMIR HAENSEL, University of Massachusetts, Amherst RALPH F. HIRSCHMANN, Merck Sharp & Dohme Research Laboratories ISABELLA L. KARLE, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory WILLIAM A. LESTER, JR., University of California, Berkeley RUDOLPH A. MARCUS, California Institute of Technology FRED W. McLAFFERTY, Cornell University KOJI NAKANISHI, Columbia University ALAN SCHRIESHEIM, Argonne National Laboratory HOWARD E. SIMMONS, JR., E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Inc. WILLIAM P. SLIGHTER, AT&T Bell Laboratories GABOR A. SOMORJAI, University of California, Berkeley EARL R. STADTMAN, National Institutes of Health CHRISTOPHER T. WALSH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GEORGE M. WHITESIDES, Harvard University WILLIAM SPINDEL, Staf{Director, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology (BCST) ROBERT M. SIMON, Sta~O~cer, BCST PEGGY J. POSEY, Sta~ O~cer, BCST ROBERT C. RODNEY, Editor, Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources MARTIN A. PAUL, Technical Consultant, BCST MARY E. BUNDY, Administrative Associate to Dr. Pimentel JEAN E. YATES, Financial Coordinator, BCST RENEE R. HARRIS, Senior Secretary, BCST . . 111

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1V Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology ALLEN J. BARD (Co-Chairman', The University of Texas at Austin LEO J. THOMAS, JR. (Co-Chairman9, Eastman Kodak Company FRED BASOLO, Northwestern University STEPHEN J. BENKOVIC, Pennsylvania State University JOHN H. DIRELY, Los Alamos National Laboratory KENNETH B. BISCHOFF, University of Delaware JOHN I. BRAUMAN, Stanford University EUGENE H. CORDES, Merck Sharp and Dohme Research Laboratories WILLIAM A. GODDARD III, California Institute of Technology LOWELL P. HAGER, University of Illinois, Urbana ARTHUR E. HUMPHREY, Lehigh University DAVID W. McCALL, AT&T Bell Laboratories FRED W. McLAFFERTY, Cornell University LEO A. PAQUETTE, Ohio State University GEORGE W. PARSHALL, E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Inc. GEORGE C. PIMENTEL, University of California, Berkeley DAVID P. SHEETZ, Dow Chemical Co. THRESSA C. STADTMAN, National Institutes of Health MONTE C. THRODAHL, St. Louis, Mo. NICHOLAS J. TURRO, Columbia University GEORGE M. WHITESIDES, Harvard University Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, ant! Resources HERBERT FRIEDMAN (ChairmanJ, National Research Council CLARENCE R. ALLEN, California Institute of Technology THOMAS D. BARROW, Standard Oil Company, Ohio (retired) ELKAN R. BLOUT, Harvard Medical School BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University CHARLES L. DRAKE, Dartmouth College MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOSEPH L. FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia JAMES C. FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh WILLIAM A. FOWLER, California Institute of Technology GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography MARY L. GOOD, Signal Research Center, Inc. J. ROSS MacDONALD, University of North Carolina THOMAS MALONE, Saint Joseph College CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS, Mallinckro~t, Inc. ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado JOHN D. SPENGLER, Harvard School of Public Health GEORGE WETHERILL, Carnegie Institution of Washington RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Associate Executive Director

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Preface In 1965, the National Research Council published Chemistry: Opportunities and Neecis. This report, under the leadership of Frank Westheimer, surveyed the state of the discipline at that time. In the 20 years since then, chemistry has undergone a virtual revolution in its techniques, instrumentation, and capa- bilities. New frontiers lie before us. These new vistas made evident the need for a new survey of chemical science and its intellectual and economic impact. That need, recognized by the Chem- istry Section of the National Academy of Sciences, led in 1982 to meetings of a planning committee formed by the Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology of the National Research Council. The planning committee unanimously recommended that a new survey of chemistry be undertaken, and the Board approved. This report is the result. A committee of 26 members broadly representative of the academic, indus- trial, and governmental research sectors, the geographic areas, and the major subdisciplines of chemistry was appointed to guide the study and to frame its conclusions and recommendations. Put briefly, the committee's charge was to describe: the contemporary research frontiers of chemistry; the opportunities for the chemical sciences to address society's needs; and the resources needed to explore these frontiers to advance human knowI- edge and to exploit chemistry's opportunities to enhance the well-being of humankind. To achieve these goals, the committee organized itself into five task forces, which, in turn, called upon more than 350 chemical researchers to suggest topics, prepare commissioned papers on cutting-edge research, and provide critiques of the manuscript as it developed. An interim report was prepared in the fall of 1983 under the auspices of the Academies' Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, titled Report of the Research Briefing Panel on Selected Opportunities in Chemistry. The briefing report was based upon

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V1 PREFACE research directions of particular promise that became apparent early in this study. Its recommendations and priorities are entirely consonant with the more complete analysis presented here. Of course, a single report can hardly cover every aspect of a set of disciplines as broad, vigorous, and dynamic as the chemical sciences. For example, chemical engineering is not explicitly discussed in detail; a complementary examination of the research frontiers in that field is clearly called for and is now under way. Nevertheless, ~ believe that this report does indeed capture the essence of the chemical sciences today. Its content represents an enthusiastic consensus of a broad spectrum from that community. The National Research Council, the scientific community, and T. myself, are all deeply indebted to the members of the committee, the many colleagues who assisted the task forces, and the able and conscientious reviewers whose suggestions and advice deter- mined the substance of the report. ~ am also grateful to my staff at Berkeley and to the staff of the NRC's Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology who, under the leadership of William Spindel, provided throughout the term of the project the day-to-day support so essential to its successful completion. The primary audience for this report is made up of those responsible for guiding science policy in the Congress and the Administration. We believe that the report will be useful to other audiences, too: the leaders of the chemical industry, the chemical research community, and also those inquisitive about science, about its relation to their own lives, and about the current directions of that most central of sciences, chemistry. GEORGE C. PIMENTEE Chairman, Committee to Survey Opportunities in the Chemical Sciences

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Contents I. INTRODUCTION II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY III. CONTROL OF CHEMICAL REACTIONS. A. New Processes, 21 B. More Energy, 34 C. New Products and Materials, 48 D. Intellectual Frontiers, 63 E. Instrumentation, 91 IV. DEALING WITH MOLECULAR COMPLEXITY A. More Food, 106 B. Better Health, 125 C. Biotechnologies, 144 D. Intellectual Frontiers, 155 E. Instrumentation, 178 V. CHEMISTRY AND NATIONAL WELL-BEING A. Better Environment, 193 B. Continued Economic Competitiveness, 209 C. Increased National Security, 222 D. Intellectual Frontiers, 240 E. Instrumentation, 265 VI. MANPOWER AND EDUCATION. VII. RESOURCES FOR BASIC RESEARCH IN THE CHEMICAL SCIENCES........................ APPENDIXES A. Chemistry in Industry: Tables, 327 B. Contributors, 332 INDEX. . . 21 .. 106 193 .. 279 288 ........ 337 e e V11

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WORLD'S LARGEST INDEX (so says the Guinness Book of Worid Records) At:: ~ : :: : ~ ~ ~ : , , 1~ ~~ ~~ ~ umes: ~ i: :;1~3~1:,445 : ~:~ pages: : : ~ : :: : :: ~ : : ~ 14:::f~et :of library:: :: ~ :~:~ UP t c:n~~ : :: ~ _~ _ I, ~ _ ~ . ~ : : :~ :^ : : : : r3cexreterences;~: ~ ~ ~ is ~ . ~ . 190 GetO m1 In it: - 1 -he ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 1 scarers to papers ant ~ papers : ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ hi: : t ~ :: ~ : :: .: ~ ~ ~ aealmg balm :erlemlscry: :: 1'ETITH~COLLECTINTE INDEX : :: ~ ~~forCHE~CAL ABSTRACTS 1977-1981 The sheer volume of this amazing collective index attests to the worldwide activity and importance of chemistry today.

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