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For at least a few years, the online services will
retain uniqueness in terms of structure, context, back-end
transactions, billing, customer service, marketing segmentation,
technology innovation, and distribution. But even these advantages
will fade over time.
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Pricing pressures will be brutal. Consider that
only a few years ago, CompuServe could charge $22.50 an hour for
access at 9,600 baud. Today, it charges $4.80 while others charge
as little as $1 for access at 14,400 baud. This trend will
continue, which is great for the consumer, but ominous for the
online services.
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More than 50 percent of American households will
be online. But many of them will use simpler access devices than
today's computers.
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Like most successful trends, all these changes
will be driven by the competitive market.
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