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6
Communications for People on the Move: A Look into the
Future
Richard C. Barth
Motorola Incorporated
Statement of the Issue
When Americans think of wireless communications systems, they
often think only of cellular phones because of the explosive growth
of this particular technology in many parts of the world. While
that form of wireless communication is only one of
many—paging, television broadcasting, police two-way radios,
and many others come to mind—a closer look at wireless, and
especially cellular technology and systems, is instructive
regarding the growth overall of wireless communications, not just
in the United States but around the world.
While seemingly ubiquitous in some business settings, the use of
cellular phone and data communications systems is only in its
infancy. Despite its dramatic growth, penetration rates for
cellular technology-based systems in the United States are still
running at less than 10 percent of American households. Compare
this to penetration rates for another key component of the global
information infrastructure, computers—PCs—which are
estimated to be in 30 percent of American households. For many
reasons the growth of cellular technology-based systems will likely
continue to increase dramatically. This paper seeks to highlight
the reasons for growth of wireless systems generally and cellular
systems specifically. All of these changes represent a significant
part of the evolving national information infrastructure (NII).
Background
There is no shortage of open issues in the NII debate. The
categories of security and privacy, interoperability, spectrum
availability, information access, ease of use, portability,
ubiquity, network availability and manageability, applications
development, multimedia, and network components provide just a
partial list of the open NII issues. For our purposes here, the
focus is on just two of these: portability and ubiquity. This focus
is deliberate. Without satisfying these two requirements, the
convenience, services, and applications that are visualized cannot
be delivered, and the NII, rather than being a bold step forward,
will in fact be a step backward.
After some 100 years of technological progress in
communications, we live today in a world where voice communications
are virtually ubiquitous. That means that today almost anyone can
call—i.e., have a voice conversation—with almost anyone
else anywhere at anytime. To do this with cellular and cordless
technologies, the phones are locally or regionally wireless, and
the wireless network that supports them is implemented by a
parallel wired network that is highly complementary. There are some
limitations in terms of access, costs, and competition, but recent
private- and public-sector activities to implement personal
communication services (PCS)—an extension of cellular
technology—will go a very long way toward improving these
limitations. Thus, holding private voice conversations will
completely meet the anytime, anywhere standard of service.
In contrast to voice communications are visual or video-based
services, which in many cases are still comparatively expensive and
tightly controlled. Whereas anyone can make a phone call, only
those designated can broadcast a television show or movie. Further,
access to information and the role of computing in communications
among people have been slower to develop. Only recently, with the
advent of easy to use online services, are computers in the home,
at schools, and in the workplace being used to supplement the
papers, books, and access to learning services that remain pretty
much as they were at the turn of the century—in
newsstands,
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libraries, and schools. Radical changes in how people access
data through computers are projected fairly confidently, at least
in the developing countries.
The development of the technologies and networks that is best
described by the NII is dramatically changing all of this, and by
doing so is empowering all citizens with the conveniences and
opportunities that will result from making all of the services
personally accessible. With an NII, the world of "voice and
imagery" are merging, along with more ready transfer of data, to
meet the anytime, anywhere standard of service. Individuals will
have full access not just to voice services as they do today, but
also to image-based services and information services that are now
only being imagined. This NII will have full mobility and
connectivity that will be made possible by completing
second-generation systems and bringing on the third-generation
wireless systems that will become part of the NII.
Before getting into what this represents in terms of new
functionality—efficiencies and services—it is appropriate
to discuss why this vision could be at risk—that is, what
could easily happen if vision and action don't match with the
opportunity for portability that wireless technologies offer to the
NII concept.
The promise of the NII lies in three synergistic forces—the
availability of bandwidth brought on by developments in fiber and
signaling, the availability of computing brought on by the
microprocessor and the march of the semiconductor industry, and the
emergence of competition and choice brought on by new telecom
policies worldwide. The wireless component of these forces of
technology is critical, especially next generation paging, cellular
PCS, and dedicated systems used by public safety and critical
industries.
Until recently, everything you could receive on your home
wall-attached television, you could receive on your portable
television, whether you chose to use it in another room, or on a
campout or while at a sporting event. That started to change with
cable when the delivered wired bandwidth for television services
was effectively increased by two orders of magnitude beyond that
available in the radio frequency allocations for television. A
similar shift occurred in computing over roughly the same time
period. Early on, what you could do with a portable computer, or
what we then called a portable computer, was pretty much what you
could do with your office or home computer. That changed when local
area networks (LANs) and computer networks came into being. With
that transition, the portable computer became a comparative
weakling to its LAN-based equivalent. These changes initially went
unnoticed—after all, at least the new portable computer was
portable, if a little out of touch, and who really needed 100
channels of television in any event?
Let us hold this perspective and move forward in time as the NII
begins to deliver on its promise. People can talk face to face, and
so groups can interact and decisions are made more quickly;
families are united though they live miles apart; high-speed
computing and information access are available in the home and
office, and as a result people are more productive and better
informed. Telecommuting becomes a reality, lowering energy
consumption. But whereas in today's world most of the
communications services that are available to a worker at a desk
are available to a worker on the move, that is no longer
necessarily true in the future—unless, that is, broadband
wireless services are brought into line with broadband wired
services.
This scenario prompts two questions: does it matter what is lost
and what is gained, and, if it does, can it be done with the
technology that is available and the other constraints that are
likely to apply? The answer to both questions is yes.
Analysis and Forecast
Let us start with the first question, Does it matter? Broadly,
we have already seen the high value people put on mobility. That
value has generated vast new high-growth industries that not only
have made the U.S. citizenry safer and more personally in touch,
but also have made U.S. industry more efficient while driving
substantial new export markets as well. But it is what happens in
specific circumstances and industries that is perhaps more
important. In other words, the applications must be carefully
examined.
Many of the most interesting applications of wireless technology
require the availability and dependability of private land-mobile
communications—that is, the system dedicated to provide
best-fit solutions to the communications needs and critical
industries and protection of the public. These systems are a
primary factor that has allowed the United States to establish and
maintain its position as the world's leading producer of goods
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and services. Private land-mobile radio is used by all segments
of the industrial, business, public safety, public service, and
land transportation mobile work force. Private land-mobile systems
have become an indispensable part of the operation of this work
force. The continued growth of this nation's commercial and public
service activities demands additional communication capabilities.
It is imperative that the industrial and public safety sectors have
access to new imaging and decision processing/remote file access
technologies. Even with the availability of some personal
communication services offered by private and common carriers,
public safety, public service, and industrial users will continue
to satisfy their specialized communication requirements through
private systems.
The private land mobile radio user community is a necessary
ingredient in maintaining global competitiveness. Motivated by the
constant need of the private sector to improve productivity and
services, private users will invariably migrate to the specific
communications solutions that provide the greatest advantage to
their operations. An additional allocation of radio spectrum is
essential if these users and their industries are to continue to
flourish in increasingly competitive global markets.
Unique Communication Services
Required
Some of the unique services anticipated as being required to
serve the critical day-to-day operational needs of critical
industries and of public safety and public service organizations
include the following.
Crime Control
•
Mobile transmission of fingerprints, mug shots,
warrants, and other images to and from law enforcement field
personnel;
•
Mobile transmission of maps, floor layouts, and
architectural drawings for control of crime-in-progress
operations;
•
Tactical use of live mobile video for hostage,
arrest, and surveillance operations;
•
High-resolution graphics and electronic transfer
of maps and other graphic information to police vehicles;
•
Vehicle and personnel tracking systems;
•
Locator service to address personnel security
utilizing wearable devices containing wireless transmitters
("wireless dog tags"); and
•
On-board information and security systems for mass
transit vehicles.
Energy Conservation and
Management
•
Advanced distribution automation (remote
monitoring, coordination, and operation of distribution and
transmission components from centralized locations, including load
management, advanced metering, and system control functions);
•
Demand side management ("DSM") systems (e.g.,
managing the consumption of electric power and natural gas);
•
Transmissions to monitor and record pipeline flow
and pipeline pressure indicators; and
•
Real-time monitoring, alerting, and control in
situations involving handling of hazardous materials.
Health Care and Fire/Emergency
Management Systems
•
Remote monitoring of patients' vital signs in
health care facilities to provide continuous patient monitoring and
immediate response in the event of a patient crisis;
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•
Mobile transmission of maps, floor layouts, and
architectural drawings to assist firefighters and other response
personnel in the rescue of individuals involved in emergency
situations;
•
Transmission of visual signals and physician
instructions in support of rescue operations;
•
High-speed transmission of high-resolution medical
imagery and data from paramedics to hospitals; and
•
Automated inventory control.
Pollution Control
•
High-resolution graphics and electronic transfer
of maps and other graphic information to mobile users;
•
Management and remediation operations following
spills or other crises;
•
Real-time monitoring, alerting, and control in
situations involving handling of hazardous materials; and
•
Visual inspection of pipes and cables exposed
during excavation projects.
Improving Industrial Productivity
•
Automatic transmission of messages advising of
impending shortages of parts in a manufacturing environment;
•
Vehicle and personnel tracking systems;
•
Locator service to address personnel security
utilizing wearable devices containing wireless transmitters
("wireless dog tags");
•
Remote safety and security inspection of
inaccessible locations;
•
Automation of process and quality control
functions;
•
Transmission of scheduling and cost updates, job
site inspection results, and performance assessments relating to
construction projects; and
•
Wireless face-to-face conferences between in-house
production and sales personnel.
Many of these applications can be satisfied through the
application of wireless technologies developed initially for the
cellular market. There will also be a variety of special "niche"
requirements that, by virtue of their highly specialized
environment and exacting reliability requirements, will tend to be
incompatible with consumer-oriented, carrier-provided PCS services
that are evolving from the cellular technologies.
For example, a variety of advanced technology services will be
required to ensure the safety and effective functioning of both
underground and elevated transit and rapid rail transportation
systems. In addition, there will be very specialized requirements
for other critical industrial and public safety operations
conducted in underground environments. Further, there will be a
requirement for special broadband video and data systems designed
to provide highly reliable communications networks in inherently
dangerous settings. Private user emerging technology systems will
fulfill a critical role in ensuring the safe and efficient
functioning of maintenance crews and fuel and other service
personnel working on highly congested flight lines.
Allocation of Spectrum
Cellular and PCS spectrum allocations over the past several
years have been critical to the introduction of some of these
technologies. However, the expected rapid growth of wireless
systems, based on user demand, requires that government
policymakers assure a continued reallocation of spectrum to these
needs. The recent spectrum allocation for PCS will not satisfy the
need for spectrum for private emerging technologies. The regulatory
scheme adopted for PCS makes it impractical, if not impossible, for
private users to obtain and use their own PCS licenses for the new
telecommunications technologies they need. Moreover, PCS
carrier-licensees are inherently unlikely to offer the specialized
solutions needed by public safety and critical industries.
Another factor that requires full analysis is the mobility of
these new systems that are so critical to the evolution of the NII.
While the overall agenda is for full mobility for the NII, its
implementation fortunately
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divides into two phases. The first requires immediate attention,
and the second requires specific actions toward the turn of the
century. The details are as follows.
Phase I for NII Mobility
•
Spectrum for Second Generation Low Earth Orbit
(LEO) Satellite Systems. While the first generation of LEO
technology is only just now being brought to market, it is not too
early to plan for additional spectrum in anticipation of its
success. We support the Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
proposal to allocate an additional 70 MHz to allow for expansion of
existing systems and the emergence of anticipated competitive
systems.
•
Spectrum for Industrial and Public Safety
Digital Systems with Broadband Capability. It has always been a
priority of the FCC to ensure that all needed spectrum for public
safety and critical industry support is made available. As such,
the tradition of support and forward-looking solutions for public
safety and private industry is a long one that has been marked by
the continued leadership of the United States. To prepare for the
next series of needed changes, it is estimated that 75 MHz of
spectrum is needed to deliver digital systems with broadband
capability. These systems will not support continuous full motion
video, but they will support selected slow scan video, image
transmissions, file searches, building layouts, hazardous chemical
mapping, and finger prints.
Phase II for NII Mobility
Analog cellular, paging, and private systems provided the first
generation. Digital systems that "remined" the existing spectrum,
PCS, and the first phase of the NII mobility initiatives make up
the second generation. Phase II for NII mobility makes up the third
generation. Third-generation systems for private or public use and
for data, paging, image, or voice provide similar functionality
with flexible broadband capability, increased capacity, satellite
system interconnectivity, and global roaming. These systems allow
voice, but they also provide video. They support data, but they
also support data at LAN rates. They deliver the full capability of
NII to the mobile worker and the mobile person. Clearly,
substantial spectrum will be necessary to support competing public
systems, wireless cable access, and needed private systems with
this capability. Efforts are just beginning to access how much
spectrum may be needed and where that spectrum will be found in
each of the world's regions and countries.
Growth of Wireless Systems
Finally, let us focus on the key issue of the growth of wireless
systems based on cellular technologies. As a percent of the world
population, users of cellular technologies account for less than 1
percent. While growth rates for cellular systems have been running
at 40 to 50 percent per year, that growth may well increase or at
least continue for many years because of the large market
opportunities that remain. By the end of this year alone, there
will be over 70 million users of cellular technology worldwide.
Currently, the overall voice and telephony usage of telephony
services is estimated at somewhat more than 4 trillion minutes,
both wired and wireless. That will grow to nearly 8 trillion
minutes by the year 2003. Correspondingly, the wireless component
is now about 70 billion minutes at present, but that is expected to
grow to 2 trillion minutes in 2003. So while it now amounts to a
little over 1 percent of the total, predictions are that it will
increase to 25 percent of the total. While that represents a
tremendous opportunity, it is also a tremendous cause for concern
if, as noted in the introduction of this paper, vision and action
do not match this demand for spectrum and technology.
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Recommendations
The Role of Government
The analysis presented above leads to the question, How can
government help? First and foremost, government needs to accept
what history has taught, that is, that mobility is essential.
Wireless solutions need to be an explicit part of the NII agenda.
An initial 165 MHz of spectrum if we leave in ITS, and 145 MHz if
not, needs to be allocated for industrial and public safety
services, IVHS and satellite services. Substantial additional
spectrum will be required beyond that for third-generation systems.
In fact the government itself has projected a need for
approximately 250 MHz over the next 10 years for wireless
terrestrial and satellite services. Government assistance needs to
be focused on making spectrum available. "Re-mining" of existing
broadcast television and broadcast auxiliary spectrum should be
considered in light of the capability of Phase II systems to
deliver both broadband data and video. Clearing the spectrum is not
just a regulatory challenge. Solutions need to be developed to
migrate existing services to either wireline or new spectrum.
The United States has led the world with its communications and
computing visions in the past, and with mobility as part of the NII
agenda it will do so again well into the next century.
The Role of Standards
The network architecture of the NII must support its goal to
facilitate true national mobility and connectivity. Open standards
and interfaces should be adopted to assure a competitive supply of
equipment to the operators and users of the NII. A level playing
field and fair competition between independent device manufacturers
will ensure affordable pricing and continued technological
development. Naturally, the standards should address the need for
privacy while allowing room for the innovative use of technology to
provide access and security.
Summary
In conclusion, the NII features of portability and ubiquity are
key to its success. But these aspects of the NII can be realized
only if U.S. government regulators free up appropriate spectrum
resources so that the private sector can develop these new
markets.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
critical industries
