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The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers (1997)
Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB)

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. "Trends in Deployments of New Telecommunications Services by Local Exchange Carriers in Support of an Advanced National Information Infrastructure." The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1997.

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providers, interexchange (long-distance) carriers, and value-added networks that are built on top of these (e.g., the Internet).

Traditional telecommunications networks have satisfied many of the requirements implied by the vision of the NII, and, indeed, form the communications fabric of today's information infrastructure. They are affordable, ubiquitous, easy to use, and dependable, and they have supported a wide and increasing range of applications including telephony, data communications (using modems), fax, access to the Internet, voice messaging, e-mail messaging, voice-response services, and access to variety of information services. In addition to the applications listed above, which are supported by ubiquitous dial-up telephone services subscribed to by 94 percent of households,2 there is a variety of higher-speed and/or specialized telecommunications services provided to businesses and institutions for such things as high-speed data transport and video teleconferencing, and for interconnecting Internet routers (packet switching nodes).

The ongoing challenges in telecommunications networking today focus on the following:

1.

Realizing affordable, higher-speed communications networking capabilities to support multimedia applications for residences and small businesses, starting with the widespread availability of integrated services digital network (ISDN) access. The challenge is driven by the convergence of the telecommunications, computing, information services, and broadcasting industries.

2.

Realizing the ability to offer customized telecommunications services to residences and businesses (e.g., calling name delivery, personal telephone numbers, personalized call screening and routing) by using the emerging advanced intelligent network (AIN) capabilities of public telecommunications networks, and supporting customers' needs for mobility by using combinations of wireless access technologies and AIN functionality in core public network platforms.

3.

Meeting the challenges of "information warfare" as U.S. telecommunications networks increasingly become the target of hackers, criminals, and terrorists seeking to exploit the increasing dependency of U.S. citizens and institutions on network-based applications.

4.

Making increasingly complex and diverse telecommunications networks appear seamless and easy to use from the perspective of users and their applications.

Meeting these challenges in providing an advanced communications fabric for NII applications requires the investment of billions of dollars of research and development funds, and the investment of hundreds of billions of dollars in new network facilities on a nationwide basis over the next two decades. These investments include the installation of combinations of optical fiber, coaxial cable, wireless technologies, and network software throughout the United States. One cannot overestimate the challenges associated with making networks and network services reliable, secure, and easy to use, and doing so at costs that are compatible with the expectations and ability to pay of residential and small business consumers. The vast majority of these software investments are directed at meeting these challenges. Since the demand of residential and institutional consumers for the newer applications that are envisioned within the framework of the NII is highly uncertain, and by implication the demand and associated revenues for the telecommunications services that the advanced communications platform can support are uncertain, these investments involve high risk, except in situations where a combination of existing revenue streams and cost savings can justify the investments independent of the demand for speculative new services. The rapid depreciation of computer and communications technologies, in terms of rapidly improving performance/price ratios, makes these investments even more risky because investments made in advance of market demand may never be recovered in a competitive marketplace.

Further compounding the risk associated with the large investments required to put in place the telecommunications fabric of the NII is the uncertainty associated with the regulatory and legal framework within which network providers must operate. The regulatory and legal framework of the past is ill suited for an environment of large investments targeted toward highly uncertain market needs using rapidly depreciating technologies in a competitive marketplace. For example, the requirement of a network interface device erects an artificial barrier that prevents local exchange companies from providing complete services to their customers. The regulatory and legal framework of the future is still being defined in a slow-moving set of processes. These

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Front Matter (R1-R14)
The National Information Infrastructure and the Earth Sciences: Possibilities and Challenges (1-9)
Government Services Information Infrastructure Management (10-17)
Cutting the Gordian Knot: Providing the American Public with Advanced Universal Access in a Fully Competitive Marketplace at the Lowest Possible Cost (18-25)
The Role of Cable Television in the NII (26-30)
Competing Definitions of 'Openness' on the GII (31-37)
Communications for People on the Move: A Look into the Future (38-43)
Building the NII: Will the Shareholders Come? (And if They Don't, Will Anyone Really Care?) (44-56)
The Electronic Universe: Network Delivery of Data, Science, and Discovery (57-66)
An SDTV Decoder with HDTV Capability: An All-Format ATV Decoder (67-75)
NII and Intelligent Transport Systems (76-84)
Post-NSFNET Statistics Collection (85-96)
NII Road Map: Residential Broadband (97-100)
The NII in the Home: A Consumer Service (101-109)
Internetwork Infrastructure Requirements for Virtual Environments (110-122)
Electric Utilities and the NII: Issues and Opportunities (123-132)
Interoperation, Open Interfaces, and Protocol Architecture (133-144)
Service Provider Interoperability and the National Information Infrastructure (145-155)
Funding the National Information Infrastructure: Advertising, Subscription, and Usage Charges (156-164)
The NII in the Home (165-167)
The Evolution of the Analog Set-Top Terminal to a Digital Interactive Home Communications Terminal (168-177)
Spread ALOHA Wireless Multiple Access: The Low-Cost Way for Ubiquitous, Tetherless Access to the Information Infrastructure (178-184)
Plans for Ubiquitous Broadband Access to the National Information Infrastructure in the Ameritech Region (185-189)
How Do Traditional Legal, Commercial, Social, and Political Structures, When Confronted with a New Service, React and Interact? (190-200)
The Internet, the World Wide Web, and Open Information Services: How to Build the Global Information Infrastructure (201-204)
Organizing the Issues (205-208)
The Argument for Universal Access to the Health Care Information Infrastructure: The Particular Needs of Rural Areas, the Poor, and the Underserved (209-216)
Toward a National Data Network: Architectural Issues and the Role of Government (217-227)
Statement on National Information Infrastucture Issues (228-232)
Proposal for an Evaluation of Health Care Applications on the NII (233-236)
The Internet - A Model: Thoughts on the Five Year Outlook (237-240)
The Economics of Layered Networks (241-247)
The Fiber-Optic Challenge of Information Infrastructure (248-255)
Cable Television Technology Deployment (256-270)
Privacy, Access and Equity, Democracy, and Networked Interactive Media (271-279)
As We May Work: An Approach Toward Collaboration on the NII (280-285)
The Use of the Social Security Number as the Basis for a National Citizen Identifier (286-291)
Estimating the Costs of Telecommunications Regulation (292-303)
Residential PC Access: Issues with Bandwidth Availability (304-314)
The National Information Infrastructure: A High Performance Computing and Communications Perspective (315-334)
Nomadic Computing and Communications (335-341)
NII 2000: The Wireless Perspective (342-350)
Small Manufacturing Enterprises and the National Information Infrastructure (351-363)
Architecture for an Emergency Lane on the NII: Crisis Information Management (364-373)
Aspects of Integrity in the NII (374-377)
What the NII Could Be: A User Perspective (378-387)
Role of the PC in Emerging Information Infrastructures (388-396)
NII Evolution - Technology Deployment Plans, Challenges, and Opportunities: AT&T Perspective (397-404)
Enabling Petabyte Computing (405-411)
Private Investment and Federal National Information Infrastructure Policy (412-415)
Thoughts on Security and the NII (416-421)
Trends in Deployments of New Telecommunications Services by Local Exchange Carriers in Support of an Advanced National Information Infrastructure (422-433)
The Future NII/GII: Views of Interexchange Carriers (434-446)
Technology in the Local Network (447-461)
Recognizing What the NII Is, What It Needs, and How to Get It (462-468)
Electronic Integrated Product Development as Enabled by a Global Information Environment: A Requirement for Success in the Twenty-first Century (469-478)
Interoperability, Standards, and Security: Will the NII Be Based on Market Principles? (479-491)
Technology and Cost Models for Connecting K-12 Schools to the National Information Infrastructure (492-510)
Geodata Interoperability: A Key NII Requirement (511-520)
Electronic Commerce (521-537)
Prospects and Prerequisites for Local Telecommunications Competition: Public Policy Issues for the NII (538-545)
The Awakening 3.0: PCs, TSBs, or DTMF-TV - Which Is Right for the Next Generation's Public Network? (546-552)
Effective Information Transfer for Health Care: Quality versus Quantity (553-559)
Integrating Technology with Practice: A Technology-enhanced, Field-based Teacher Preparation Program (560-575)
RegNet: An NPR Regulatory Reform Initiative Toward NII/GII Collaboratories (576-604)
Electronic Document Interchange and Distribution Based on the Portable Document Format, an Open Interchange Format (605-617)