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The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers (1997)
Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB)

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. "Interoperability, Standards, and Security: Will the NII Be Based on Market Principles?." The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1997.

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The private sector, not the government, should set standards; de jure standards, whether set by government or the private sector, are not preferable to de facto standards; and

Unless security and privacy are protected, the NII will not reach its full potential as a platform for electronic commerce.

These assertions may be controversial; many run counter to conventional wisdom, particularly that of the Washington, D.C., community. However, all are market-oriented. And they are fundamental to U.S. economic goals.

The NII: Not Synonymous with the Internet

Entertainment is the engine that has already pulled broadband networks into over 60 percent of American homes. Entertainment will drive the investment necessary to upgrade those networks as well. This is not a fact easily accepted by some Internet aficionados and some in the computer industry. Many in those groups join millions of other Americans who have a low opinion of much of current television programming. Many view the Internet as a liberator from TV's vast wasteland. But there are also other reasons why the role of entertainment is not more widely acknowledged by the computer world 7.

Computer businessmen are aware that today's dominant entertainment terminal, the television set, is an extremely cost-sensitive (and low-cost), relatively simple piece of electronics, geared to nonbusiness consumers, with a life of over 10 years. This is a long way from their preferred business model. The consumer electronics industry is dominated by foreign-owned companies; the computer industry is U.S. based. The television industry has relied on interlace scanning and sees it as important to keeping down the cost of its investment 8; the computer industry wants progressive scanning formats.

Likewise, those in the computer business look at other players and find them to be quite different from themselves. The cable television industry has only recently emerged from its "pioneer" phase and still revels in its "cowboy" image 9. Cable operators have an obsession with cost control, based on experience with mass consumer marketing. Where the computer industry has traditionally sold into the business community, cable operators have focused on residential customers. Regional Bell operating companies (RBOCs), in contrast to both, have previously been large, sleepy, and cumbersome bureaucracies, typical of utilities, and the antithesis of the computer industry 10.

The computer and Internet communities are not alone in their suspicion of the alien cultures that have suddenly entered their world. About 15 months ago, a high-level business manager 11 for a leading supplier to the cable television industry told his staff, "Somebody is going to have to explain this Internet to me!" He was reflecting not only his lack of knowledge of the phenomenon but also his exasperation at the whole range of new factors he had to consider as he developed his current core businesses.

So it is not surprising that computer business managers tend to gravitate toward an Internet model of the future NII. They will naturally have less enthusiasm for the role of entertainment than those who have worked in that field 12. But to recognize entertainment as the primary engine of the deployment of advanced broadband networks does not denigrate the role or the importance of the Internet. The NII is and should be about a lot more than just selling pay-per-view movies or making it possible for people to watch reruns of Roseanne or Baywatch. The advanced broadband networks that will share the task of serving as the backbone of the NII are about making video an integral part of all communications. The addition of video capability has major, positive implications for education, health, and business efficiency.

What entertainment can do is bring this broadband capability to every home and business. It can and will carry the major load of the investment needed to do that. When cable television operators begin to deploy digital decompression terminals, they will be putting into each user's home a level of computing power that is the equivalent of yesterday's mainframes. Far from detracting from or conflicting with the Internet, the broadband pipes of these networks will make Internet access via high-speed connections available to an increasingly wider range of Americans 13.

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Front Matter (R1-R14)
The National Information Infrastructure and the Earth Sciences: Possibilities and Challenges (1-9)
Government Services Information Infrastructure Management (10-17)
Cutting the Gordian Knot: Providing the American Public with Advanced Universal Access in a Fully Competitive Marketplace at the Lowest Possible Cost (18-25)
The Role of Cable Television in the NII (26-30)
Competing Definitions of 'Openness' on the GII (31-37)
Communications for People on the Move: A Look into the Future (38-43)
Building the NII: Will the Shareholders Come? (And if They Don't, Will Anyone Really Care?) (44-56)
The Electronic Universe: Network Delivery of Data, Science, and Discovery (57-66)
An SDTV Decoder with HDTV Capability: An All-Format ATV Decoder (67-75)
NII and Intelligent Transport Systems (76-84)
Post-NSFNET Statistics Collection (85-96)
NII Road Map: Residential Broadband (97-100)
The NII in the Home: A Consumer Service (101-109)
Internetwork Infrastructure Requirements for Virtual Environments (110-122)
Electric Utilities and the NII: Issues and Opportunities (123-132)
Interoperation, Open Interfaces, and Protocol Architecture (133-144)
Service Provider Interoperability and the National Information Infrastructure (145-155)
Funding the National Information Infrastructure: Advertising, Subscription, and Usage Charges (156-164)
The NII in the Home (165-167)
The Evolution of the Analog Set-Top Terminal to a Digital Interactive Home Communications Terminal (168-177)
Spread ALOHA Wireless Multiple Access: The Low-Cost Way for Ubiquitous, Tetherless Access to the Information Infrastructure (178-184)
Plans for Ubiquitous Broadband Access to the National Information Infrastructure in the Ameritech Region (185-189)
How Do Traditional Legal, Commercial, Social, and Political Structures, When Confronted with a New Service, React and Interact? (190-200)
The Internet, the World Wide Web, and Open Information Services: How to Build the Global Information Infrastructure (201-204)
Organizing the Issues (205-208)
The Argument for Universal Access to the Health Care Information Infrastructure: The Particular Needs of Rural Areas, the Poor, and the Underserved (209-216)
Toward a National Data Network: Architectural Issues and the Role of Government (217-227)
Statement on National Information Infrastucture Issues (228-232)
Proposal for an Evaluation of Health Care Applications on the NII (233-236)
The Internet - A Model: Thoughts on the Five Year Outlook (237-240)
The Economics of Layered Networks (241-247)
The Fiber-Optic Challenge of Information Infrastructure (248-255)
Cable Television Technology Deployment (256-270)
Privacy, Access and Equity, Democracy, and Networked Interactive Media (271-279)
As We May Work: An Approach Toward Collaboration on the NII (280-285)
The Use of the Social Security Number as the Basis for a National Citizen Identifier (286-291)
Estimating the Costs of Telecommunications Regulation (292-303)
Residential PC Access: Issues with Bandwidth Availability (304-314)
The National Information Infrastructure: A High Performance Computing and Communications Perspective (315-334)
Nomadic Computing and Communications (335-341)
NII 2000: The Wireless Perspective (342-350)
Small Manufacturing Enterprises and the National Information Infrastructure (351-363)
Architecture for an Emergency Lane on the NII: Crisis Information Management (364-373)
Aspects of Integrity in the NII (374-377)
What the NII Could Be: A User Perspective (378-387)
Role of the PC in Emerging Information Infrastructures (388-396)
NII Evolution - Technology Deployment Plans, Challenges, and Opportunities: AT&T Perspective (397-404)
Enabling Petabyte Computing (405-411)
Private Investment and Federal National Information Infrastructure Policy (412-415)
Thoughts on Security and the NII (416-421)
Trends in Deployments of New Telecommunications Services by Local Exchange Carriers in Support of an Advanced National Information Infrastructure (422-433)
The Future NII/GII: Views of Interexchange Carriers (434-446)
Technology in the Local Network (447-461)
Recognizing What the NII Is, What It Needs, and How to Get It (462-468)
Electronic Integrated Product Development as Enabled by a Global Information Environment: A Requirement for Success in the Twenty-first Century (469-478)
Interoperability, Standards, and Security: Will the NII Be Based on Market Principles? (479-491)
Technology and Cost Models for Connecting K-12 Schools to the National Information Infrastructure (492-510)
Geodata Interoperability: A Key NII Requirement (511-520)
Electronic Commerce (521-537)
Prospects and Prerequisites for Local Telecommunications Competition: Public Policy Issues for the NII (538-545)
The Awakening 3.0: PCs, TSBs, or DTMF-TV - Which Is Right for the Next Generation's Public Network? (546-552)
Effective Information Transfer for Health Care: Quality versus Quantity (553-559)
Integrating Technology with Practice: A Technology-enhanced, Field-based Teacher Preparation Program (560-575)
RegNet: An NPR Regulatory Reform Initiative Toward NII/GII Collaboratories (576-604)
Electronic Document Interchange and Distribution Based on the Portable Document Format, an Open Interchange Format (605-617)