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The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers (1997)

Chapter: Front Matter

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
×

White Papers
The Unpredictable Certainty
Information Infrastructure Through 2000

NII 2000 Steering Committee

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1997

Page ii

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the steering committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IRI-9529473. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-06036-2

Additional copies of this report are available from the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418; CSTB@NAS.EDU or http://www2.nas.edu/cstbweb.

Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page iii

NII 2000 Steering Committee

LEWIS M. BRANSCOMB, Harvard University, Chair

CYNTHIA H. BRADDON, The McGraw-Hill Companies

JAMES A. CHIDDIXJAMES A. CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable

DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOSEPH A. FLAHERTY, CBS Incorporated

PAUL E. GREEN, JR., IBM T.J. Watson Research Center

IRENE GREIF, Lotus Development Corporation

RICHARD T. LIEBHABER, MCI Communications (retired)

ROBERT W. LUCKY, Bell Communications Research

LLOYD N. MORRISETT, John and Mary Markle Foundation

DONALD W. SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems

LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation

Staff

MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page iv

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board

DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair

FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center

JAMES CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable

JEFF DOZIER, University of California at Santa Barbara

A.G. FRASER, AT&T Corporation

SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California at Berkeley

JAMES GRAY, Microsoft Corporation

BARBARA J. GROSZ, Harvard University

PATRICK HANRAHAN, Stanford University

JUDITH HEMPEL, University of California at San Francisco

DEBORAH A. JOSEPH, University of Wisconsin

BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation

EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA, University of Washington

MICHAEL LESK, Bell Communications Research

DAVID LIDDLE, Interval Research

BARBARA H. LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN MAJOR, QUALCOMM Inc.

DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT, University of California at Berkeley

DONALD NORMAN, Hewlett-Packard Company

RAYMOND OZZIE, Rhythmix Corporation

DONALD SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems Inc.

LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation

MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director

HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Staff Officer

JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Program Officer

ALAN S. INOUYE, Program Officer

JON EISENBERG, Program Officer

JANET D. BRISCOE, Administrative Associate

MARK BALKOVICH, Research Associate

SYNOD P. BOYD, Project Assistant

LISA L. SHUM, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page v

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-chair

W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair

PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan (ERIM)

WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University

LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania

RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University

JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara

MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University

L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc.

JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University

CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company

PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.

KENNETH H. KELLER, Council on Foreign Relations and the University of Minnesota

KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory

MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles

DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN KREICK, Sanders, A Lockheed Martin Company

MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania

NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory

CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley

NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page vii

Preface

This book contains a key component of the NII 2000 project of the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, a set of white papers that contributed to and complements the project's final report, The Unpredictable Certainty: Information Infrastructure Through 2000, which was published in the spring of 1996. That report was disseminated widely and was well received by its sponsors and a variety of audiences in government, industry, and academia. Constraints on staff time and availability delayed the publication of these white papers, which offer details on a number of issues and positions relating to the deployment of information infrastructure. The remainder of this preface is taken from the original preface of The Unpredictable Certainty. It provides more detail on the context in which the white papers were developed.

In October 1994, at the request of the Technology Policy Working Group (TPWG) of the Information Infrastructure Task Force, CSTB convened a steering committee to assess medium-term deployment of facilities and services to advance the nation's information infrastructure. The project was designated "NII 2000" by the steering committee, and its tasks were the following:

To reach out to a broad range of industries with a stake in the future of U.S. information infrastructure—those industries expected to be major market drivers as well as those expected to be major service providers—to explore their expectations and motivations for technology deployment in the next 5 to 7 years;

To infer from this exploration the extent to which there is a shared vision of the importance of common features of system architecture, such as interoperability or open system interfaces, and the alternative likelihood that major parts of the system will develop along proprietary, incompatible lines; and

To conclude with suggestions to the U.S. government on public policy choices that might serve both the rapid, orderly, and successful development of information infrastructure and its satisfaction of important public interests.

To achieve these goals, the steering committee was asked by the TPWG to undertake a specific series of activities: convene a workshop of professionals and scholars to discuss and identify key issues related to technology deployment, call for white papers to gain further information on these issues, organize a forum to discuss the white papers and other key ideas, and write a synthesis report of its findings.

Following the workshop, the steering committee released a call for white papers on issues related to architecture and facilities, enabling technologies, recovery of costs, middleware technologies and capabilities, applications, equitable access and public service obligations, and research and development. The call was distributed through various media (the Internet, press advisories, direct mail, and so on) to producers of communications, computer, and software systems goods and services; Internet access and other network-based service providers; scholars specializing in relevant technical, economic, and public policy research and analysis; and project liaisons and other representatives of industries and sectors believed likely to become major users of advanced information infrastructure (such as the arts, banking and finance, education, health care, government agencies, libraries, manufacturing, and transportation). The white papers were

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page viii

distributed to participants at the spring forum and to interested federal agencies. Their content, representing a broad spectrum of views from knowledgeable participants in the evolution of information infrastructure, was a major component in the development of the steering committee's report, which quotes from and refers specifically to several of them.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page ix

Contents

The National Information Infrastructure and the Earth Sciences: Possibilities and Challenges

Mark R. Abbott (Oregon State University)

1

Government Services Information Infrastructure Management

Robert J. Aiken and John S. Cavallini (U.S. Department of Energy)

10

Cutting the Gordian Knot: Providing the American Public with Advanced Universal Access in a Fully Competitive Marketplace at the Lowest Possible Cost

Allan J. Arlow (Telecommunications Consultant, Annapolis, Md.)

18

The Role of Cable Television in the NII

Wendell Bailey (National Cable Television Association) and Jim Chiddix (Time Warner Cable)

26

Competing Definitions of "Openness" on the GII

Jonathan Band (Morrison and Foerster, Washington, D.C.)

31

Communications for People on the Move: A Look into the Future

Richard C. Barth (Motorola Incorporated)

38

Building the NII: Will the Shareholders Come? (And If They Don't, Will Anyone Really Care?)

Robert T. Blau (BellSouth Corporation)

44

The Electronic Universe: Network Delivery of Data, Science, and Discovery

Gregory Bothun (University of Oregon), Jim Elias (US West Communications), Randolph G. Foldvik (US West Communications), and Oliver McBryan (University of Colorado)

57

An SDTV Decoder with HDTV Capability: An All-Format ATV Decoder

Jill Boyce, John Henderson, and Larry Pearlstein (Hitachi America Ltd.)

67

NII and Intelligent Transport Systems

Lewis M. Branscomb and Jim Keller (Harvard University)

76

Post-NSFNET Statistics Collection

Hans-Werner Braun and Kimberly Claffy (San Diego Supercomputer Center)

85

NII Road Map: Residential Broadband

Charles N. Brownstein (Cross-Industry Working Team, Corporation for National Research Initiatives)

97

The NII in the Home: A Consumer Service

Vito Brugliera (Zenith Electronics), James A. Chiddix (Time Warner Cable), D. Joseph Donahue (Thomson Consumer Electronics), Joseph A. Flaherty (CBS Inc.), Richard R. Green (Cable Television Laboratories), James C. McKinney (ATSC), Richard E. Ottinger (PBS), and Rupert Stow (Rupert Stow Associates)

101

Internetwork Infrastructure Requirements for Virtual Environments

Donald P. Brutzman, Michael R. Macedonia, and Michael J. Zyda (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California)

110

Electric Utilities and the NII: Issues and Opportunities

John S. Cavallini and Mary Anne Scott (U.S. Department of Energy) and Robert J. Aiken (U.S. Department of Energy/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

123

Interoperation, Open Interfaces, and Protocol Architecture

David D. Clark (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

133

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page x

Service Provider Interoperability and the National Information Infrastructure

Tim Clifford (DynCorp Advanced Technology Services)

145

Funding the National Information Infrastructure: Advertising, Subscription, and Usage Charges

Robert W. Crandall (Brookings Institution)

156

The NII in the Home

D. Joseph Donahue (Thomson Consumer Electronics)

165

The Evolution of the Analog Set-Top Terminal to a Digital Interactive Home Communications Terminal

H. Allen Ecker and J. Graham Mobley (Scientific-Atlanta Inc.)

168

Spread ALOHA Wireless Multiple Access: The Low-Cost Way for Ubiquitous, Tetherless Access to the Information Infrastructure

Dennis W. Elliott and Norman Abramson (ALOHA Networks Inc.)

178

Plans for Ubiquitous Broadband Access to the National Information Infrastructure in the Ameritech Region

Joel S. Engel (Ameritech)

185

How Do Traditional Legal, Commercial, Social, and Political Structures, When Confronted with a New Service, React and Interact?

Maria Farnon (Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University)

190

The Internet, the World Wide Web, and Open Information Services: How to Build the Global Information Infrastructure

Charles H. Ferguson (Vermeer Technologies Inc.)

201

Organizing the Issues

Frances Dummer Fisher (University of Texas at Austin)

205

The Argument for Universal Access to the Health Care Information Infrastructure: The Particular Needs of Rural Areas, the Poor, and the Underserved

Richard Friedman and Sean Thomas (University of Wisconsin)

209

Toward a National Data Network: Architectural Issues and the Role of Government

David A. Garbin (MITRE Corporation)

217

Statement on National Information Infrastructure Issues

Oscar Garcia (for the IEEE Computer Society)

228

Proposal for an Evaluation of Health Care Applications on the NII

Joseph Gitlin (Johns Hopkins University)

233

The Internet—A Model: Thoughts on the Five-Year Outlook

Ross Glatzer (Prodigy Services [retired])

237

The Economics of Layered Networks

Jiong Gong and Padmanabhan Srinagesh (Bell Communications Research Inc.)

241

The Fiber-Optic Challenge of Information Infrastructures

P.E. Green, Jr. (IBM T.J. Watson Research Center)

248

Cable Television Technology Deployment

Richard R. Green (Cable Television Laboratories Inc.)

256

Privacy, Access and Equity, Democracy, and Networked Interactive Media

Michael D. Greenbaum (Bell Atlantic) and David Ticoll (Alliance for Converging Technologies)

271

As We May Work: An Approach Toward Collaboration on the NII

Marjorie Greene (First Washington Associates)

280

The Use of the Social Security Number as the Basis for a National Citizen Identifier

W. Ed Hammond (Duke University Medical Center)

286

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
×

Page xi

Estimating the Costs of Telecommunications Regulation

Peter W. Huber (Manhattan Institute), Boban Mathew (Yale University), and John Thorne (Bell Atlantic)

292

Residential PC Access: Issues with Bandwidth Availability

Kevin C. Kahn (Intel Corporation)

304

The National Information Infrastructure: A High-Performance Computing and Communications Perspective

Randy H. Katz (University of California at Berkeley), William L. Scherlis (Carnegie Mellon University), and Stephen L. Squires (Advanced Research Projects Agency)

315

Nomadic Computing and Communications

Leonard Kleinrock (University of California at Los Angeles)

335

NII 2000: The Wireless Perspective

Mary Madigan (Personal Communications Industry Association)

342

Small Manufacturing Enterprises and the National Information Infrastructure

Robert M. Mason, Chester Bowling, and Robert J. Niemi (Case Western Reserve University)

351

Architecture for an Emergency Lane on the NII: Crisis Information Management

Lois Clark McCoy and Douglas Gillies (National Institute for Urban Search and Rescue) and John Harrald (NIUSR and George Washington University)

364

Aspects of Integrity in the NII

John C. McDonald (MBX Inc.)

374

What the NII Could Be: A User Perspective

David G. Messerschmitt (University of California at Berkeley)

378

Role of the PC in Emerging Information Infrastructures

Avram Miller and Ogden Perry (Intel Corporation)

388

NII Evolution—Technology Deployment Plans, Challenges, and Opportunities: AT&T Perspective

Mahal Mohan (AT&T Corporation)

397

Enabling Petabyte Computing

Reagan W. Moore (San Diego Supercomputer Center)

405

Private Investment and Federal National Information Infrastructure Policy

Organization for the Protection and Advancement of Small Telephone Companies (OPASTCO)

412

Thoughts on Security and the NII

Tom Perrine (San Diego Supercomputer Center)

416

Trends in Deployments of New Telecommunications Services by Local Exchange Carriers in Support of an Advanced National Information Infrastructure

Stewart D. Personick (Bell Communications Research Inc.)

422

The Future NII/GII: Views of Interexchange Carriers

Robert S. Powers (MCI Telecommunications Inc.), Tim Clifford (SPRINT, Government Systems Division), and James M. Smith (Competitive Telecommunications Association)

434

Technology in the Local Network

J.C. Redmond, C.D. Decker, and W.G. Griffin (GTE Laboratories Inc.)

447

Recognizing What the NII Is, What It Needs, and How to Get It

Robert F. Roche (Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association)

462

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1997. The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6062.
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Page xii

Electronic Integrated Product Development as Enabled by a Global Information Environment: A Requirement for Success in the Twenty-first Century

Thomas C. Rochow, George E. Scarborough, and Frank David Utterback (McDonnell Douglas Corporation)

469

Interoperability, Standards, and Security: Will the NII Be Based on Market Principles?

Quincy Rodgers (General Instrument Corporation)

479

Technology and Cost Models for Connecting K-12 Schools to the National Information Infrastructure

Russell I. Rothstein and Lee McKnight (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

492

Geodata Interoperability: A Key NII Requirement

David Schell, Lance McKee, and Kurt Buehler (Open GIS Consortium)

511

Electronic Commerce

Dan Schutzer (Citibank Corporation)

521

Prospects and Prerequisites for Local Telecommunications Competition: Public Policy Issues for the NII

Gail Garfield Schwartz and Paul E. Cain (Teleport Communications Group)

538

The Awakening 3.0: PCs, TSBs, or DTMF-TV—Which Telecomputer Architecture Is Right for the Next Generation's Public Network?

John W. Thompson, Jr. (GNOSTECH Incorporated)

546

Effective Information Transfer for Health Care: Quality versus Quantity

Gio Wiederhold (Stanford University)

553

Integrating Technology with Practice: A Technology-enhanced, Field-based Teacher Preparation Program

Ronald D. Zellner, Jon Denton, and Luana Zellner (Texas A&M University)

560

RegNet: An NPR Regulatory Reform Initiative Toward NII/GII Collaboratories

John P. Ziebarth (National Center for Supercomputing Applications), W. Neil Thompson (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), J.D. Nyhart, Kenneth Kaplan (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Bill Ribarsky (Georgia Institute of Technology), Gio Wiederhold, Michael R. Genesereth (Stanford University), Kenneth Gilpatric (National Performance Review NetResults.RegNet and Administrative Conference of the United States [formerly]), Tim E. Roxey (National Performance Review RegNet.Industry, Baltimore Gas and Electric, and Council for Excellence in Government), William J. Olmstead (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), Ben Slone (Finite Matters Ltd.), Jim Acklin (Regulatory Information Alliance)

576

Electronic Document Interchange and Distribution Based on the Portable Document Format, an Open Interchange Format

Stephen N. Zilles and Richard Cohn (Adobe Systems Incorporated)

605

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This book contains a key component of the NII 2000 project of the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, a set of white papers that contributed to and complements the project's final report, The Unpredictable Certainty: Information Infrastructure Through 2000, which was published in the spring of 1996. That report was disseminated widely and was well received by its sponsors and a variety of audiences in government, industry, and academia. Constraints on staff time and availability delayed the publication of these white papers, which offer details on a number of issues and positions relating to the deployment of information infrastructure.

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