Review of the Research and Development Plan for the Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies

Committee on Advanced Automotive Technologies Plan

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

National Research Council

Washington, D.C.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
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--> Review of the Research and Development Plan for the Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies Committee on Advanced Automotive Technologies Plan Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.1998

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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DTNH22-94-G-07414 from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-05997-6 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. HA-270 Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3344 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Copyright © 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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--> COMMITTEE ON ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGIES PLAN WILLIAM AGNEW (chair), NAE,1 General Motors Research Laboratories (retired), Washington, Michigan ROBERT G. ALDRICH, Pridtronics, Inc., Cupertino, California FRED ANSON, NAS,2 California Institute of Technology, Pasadena ROBERT EPPERLY, Epperly Associates, Inc., Mountain View, California ANTHONY FINIZZA, Atlantic Richfield Company, Los Angeles, California THOMAS M. JAHNS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Industry Consortium on Advanced Automotive Electrical/Electronic Components and Systems, Cambridge JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Houghton PARKER MATHUSA, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Albany PHILLIP MYERS, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison ROBERTA NICHOLS, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Plymouth, Michigan JOAN OGDEN, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey VERNON P. ROAN, University of Florida, Palm Beach Gardens DALE STEIN, NAE, Michigan Technological University (retired), Tucson, Arizona JOHN WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Corporation (retired), Princeton, New Jersey Liaison from the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratories and University of Tennessee (retired), Knoxville Project Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) JILL WILSON, senior program officer and study director, BEES SUSANNA E. CLARENDON, financial and administrative assistant, BEES PATRICIA SPAULDING, project assistant, BEES 1   NAE = National Academy of Engineering. 2   NAS = National Academy of Sciences.

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--> BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ROBERT L. HIRSCH (chair), Advanced Power Technologies, Inc., Washington, D.C. RICHARD MESERVE (vice chair), Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. JAN BEYEA, Consulting in the Public Interest, Lambertville, New Jersey EVERETT H. BECKNER, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico CHARLES CURTIS, Hogan & Hartson, Washington, D.C. E. GAIL DE PLANQUE, NAE, Potomac, Maryland WILLIAM L. FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratories and University of Tennessee (retired), Knoxville JACQUES GANSLER, TASC, Arlington, Virginia (until November 1997) ROY G. GORDON, NAE, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts EDWIN E. KINTER, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Norwich, Vermont K. ANNE STREET, Geo-Centers, Rockville, Maryland JAMES SWEENEY, Stanford University, Stanford, California LINDA GILLESPIE STUNTZ, Stuntz & Davis, Washington, D.C. KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan IRVIN WHITE, UTECH, Inc., Fairfax, Virginia Liaison Members from the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems RUTH M. DAVIS, NAE, Pymatuning Group, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, NAE, Bechtel Technology and Consulting, san Francisco, California Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director JILL WILSON, senior program officer TRACY WILSON, senior program officer SUSANNA CLARENDON, financial and administrative assistant PATRICIA SPAULDING, project assistant

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--> Acknowledgments The committee gratefully acknowledges the individuals and organizations that contributed their time and effort to this study in the form of presentations to the committee, correspondence, telephone calls, and responses to requests for information. Particular thanks are owed to Pandit Patil and Robert Kirk of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies, who responded either orally or in writing to the committee's many questions. Finally, the chairman wishes to thank the members of the committee for their hard work during meetings, for reviewing drafts of the report, and for their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The committee, on behalf of the NRC, wishes to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: L. Gary Byrd, consultant; Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University; Robert D. Hall, CDG Management; Trevor Jones, Echlin, Incorporated; Craig Marks, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Jerome G. Rivard, Global Technology and Business Development; and Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis. While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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--> Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   10     Origin and Scope of This Study   11     Study Process and Report Organization   13     References   13 2   Overall Evaluation   14     General Comments   14     Goals and Objectives   17     Assumptions   20     Potential Benefits   21     Strategies for Overcoming Technical Barriers   23     Metrics for Measuring Progress   23     Priorities   24     Resource Allocation and Strategies for Managing the Plan   25     Recommendations   27     References   28 3   Evaluations of Individual Technology Areas   29     Vehicle Systems   29     Advanced Engines   32     Fuel Cells   38     High Power Energy Storage   41     Power Electronics and Electric Machines   48

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-->     Advanced Automotive Materials   50     Alternative Fuels   52     Electric Vehicle Batteries   58     References   60     Acronyms   61     Appendices         A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   65     B Committee Meetings and Other Activities   70