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Review of Northeast Fishery Stock Assessments Committee to Review Northeast Fishery Stock Assessments Ocean Studies Board Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, DC 1998
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report and the committee were supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DKNA-6-90040 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Any opinions, findings,conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Cover art, by Winslow Homer, titled "The Fog Warning." Provided by the Otis Norcross Fund, courtesy of the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, Massachusetts. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-84912 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06030-3 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.
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COMMITTEE ON NORTHEAST FISHERY STOCK ASSESSMENTS TERRANCE J. QUINN II, Chair, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau WYATT ANDERSON, University of Georgia, Athens WAYNE M. GETZ, University of California, Berkeley RAY HILBORN, University of Washington, Seattle CYNTHIA JONES, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia JEAN-JACQUES MAGUIRE, Advice in Fisheries Science and Management, Quebec, Canada ANA PARMA, International Pacific Halibut Commission, Seattle TORE SCHWEDER, University of Oslo, Norway GUNNAR STEFANSSON, Marine Research Institute, Reykjavik, Iceland Staff M. ELIZABETH CLARKE, Study Director GLENN MERRILL, Research Associate SHARI MAGUIRE, Project Assistant ANN CARLISLE, Project Assistant Consultant GRAEME PARKES, MRAG Americas
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD KENNETH BRINK, Chair, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts ALICE ALLDREDGE, University of California, Santa Barbara DAVID BRADLEY, Pennsylvania State University, State College WILLIAM CURRY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts ELLEN DRUFFEL, University of California, Irvine RANA FINE, University of Miami, Florida CARL FRIEHE, University of California, Irvine ROBERT GAGOSIAN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts SUSAN HANNA, Oregon State University, Corvallis JOHN HOBBIE, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts EILEEN HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia JOHN KNAUSS, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett ROBERT KNOX, University of California, San Diego RAY KRONE, University of California, Davis LOUIS LANZEROTTI, Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey JOHN MAGNUSON, University of Wisconsin, Madison WILLIAM MERRELL, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, Washington, D.C. B. GREGORY MITCHELL, University of California, San Diego NEIL OPDYKE, University of Florida, Gainesville MICHAEL ORBACH, Duke University Marine Laboratory, Beaufort, North Carolina TERRANCE QUINN, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau C. BARRY RALEIGH, University of Hawaii, Honolulu JAMES RAY, Shell Oil Company, Houston, Texas GEORGE SOMERO, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California PAUL STOFFA, University of Texas, Austin Staff MORGAN GOPNIK, Director M. ELIZABETH CLARKE, Associate Director EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Program Officer DAN WALKER, Program Officer ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate GLENN MERRILL, Research Associate LORA TAYLOR, Senior Project Assistant JENNIFER SWERDA, Project Assistant SHARI MAGUIRE, Project Assistant ANN CARLISLE, Project Assistant
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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair, University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University, California JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park Staff ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility of advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 7 The Groundfish Resources of the Northwestern Atlantic 7 Historical Exploitation and Assessment 7 Modern Exploitation and Assessment 9 Description of 1997 U.S. Stock Assessment for Cod, Haddock, and Yellowtail Flounder 14 History and Purpose of the Study 23 2 GENERAL REVIEW OF NORTHEAST GROUNDFISH STOCK ASSESSMENTS 25 Investigation of the Northeast Fishery Stock Assessments 30 Comparison with Assessments Around the World 34 General Evaluation of Northeast Groundfish Stock Assessment Based on Recommendations from Improving Fish Stock Assessments 39 Status of the Five Stocks 40 3 REVIEW OF DETAILS OF NORTHEAST GROUNDFISH STOCK ASSESSMENTS 61 Data 61 Assessment Models 66 4 SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT 69 Role of Stock Assessment in the Fishery Management Process 69 Strategic Thinking and Process 71 Public Hearing 72 5 CONCLUSIONS 75 REFERENCES 81 APPENDIXES 87 A. Mandate from Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation Management Act 89 B. Committee Biographies 90 C. Materials Received from National Marine Fisheries Service 92 D. Presentation to the committee by NMFS scientists 104 E. Glossary 116 F. Extending Data Series and Alternative Projection Results for Gulf of Maine Cod 122
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