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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY Report No. 27 Rapid Population Change in China, 1952-1982 Ansley J. Coale Committee on Population and Demography Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1984

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting- of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad coT'ununity of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal goverrunent. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 84-61188 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03480-9 Available from NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY ANSLEY J. COALE (Chair), Office of Population Research Princeton University WILLIAM BRASS, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine LEE-JAY CHO, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu RONALD FREEDMAN, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan NATHAN KEYFITZ, Department of Sociology, Harvard University LESLIE KISH, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan W. PARKER MAULDIN, Population Division, The Rockefeller Foundation JANE MENKEN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University SAMUEL PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania WILLIAM SELTZER, Statistical Office, United Nations CONRAD TAEUBER, Kennedy Institute, Center for Population Research, Georgetown University ETIENNE VAN DE WALLE, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT J. LAPHAM, Study Director Note: Members of the Committee and its panel and working groups participated in this project in their individual capacities; the listing of their organizational affiliation is for identification purposes only, and the views and designations used in this report are not necessarily those of the organizations mentioned. .

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CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES PREFACE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION Scope of the Report, 8 Background, 9 2 SOURCES AND QUALITY OF DATA Data Sources, 12 Census and Fertility Survey Data, 12 Independence of the Data Sources, 13 Characteristics of the 1982 Census and Fertility Survey, 15 Quality of Data, 18 Data by Single Years of Age, 18 Abnormal Ratios of Men to Women in Census and Survey Data, 21 Official Data on Births and Deaths, 27 Data on Children and Marriage, 31 Quality of Data: Summary, 37 v ~ V11 ix X1 1 8 12

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3 MARRIAGE IN CHINA SINCE 1950 Proportion Ever-Married Women and the First-Marriage Rate, 39 Mean Age at First Marriage, 41 Patterns of Marriage, 42 4 CHILDBEARING IN CHINA SINCE 1950 Total Fertility Rates, 46 The Effect of Changes in Nuptiality on the Rate of Childbearing, 48 Age Patterns of Marital Fertility, 54 Differential Fertility, 58 Urban/Rural Differences, S8 Han and Minority Group Differences, 62 Other Fertility Determinants, 62 Contraceptive Practice in China, 62 5 MORTALITY IN CHINA Methods, 64 Life Tables, 66 Crude Death Rates, 66 Variation Over Time, 70 6 CONCLUSIONS NOTES APPENDIX: DATA TABLES REFERENCES vi 39 46 64 71 73 75 87

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LIST OF TABLES 1 Annual Number of Births (in millions) from Official Figures and as Calculated from Fertility Rates in Survey and Interpolated Populations, and Estimated Completenes of Reporting, 1953-82 2 Total Number of Children Ever Born to Women Classified in Five-Year Age Intervals, 1982 3 Estimated Fiscal Year Births, 1951-52 to 1981-82, Number Recorded in Corresponding Cohort in 1982, and Proportion Surviving 4 Proportion of Children Surviving Among Children Ever Born Alive to Women Aged 15-19 to 50-54, 1982 Birth Rate and Total Fertility Rate Derived from Fertility Survey Total Fertility Rate Calculated for Selected Years, from Proportion of Women Ever Married and Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rates, 1956 7 Annual Births (in millions), Total Fertility Rate, 1970-82 8 Total Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban Populations, 19 50-81 Abridged Life Tables, Male and Female, 1953-64 and 1964-82 10 Crude Death Rates (per 1,000), 1953-81 A-1 Calculated Number of Women by Single Years of Age, Aged 15-49 for Each Year, Estimated by Cohort Interpolation (in 100s), 1953-82 A-2 Population by Sex and Single Years of Age, 1953, 1964, and 1982 (after adjustment) V11 28 35 36 47 51 53 59 67 69 76 78

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A-3 Proportion of Children Born Alive Who Were Born in Specified Years, by Age of Mother, 1982 A-4 Proportion of Ever-Married Women (per 1,000 women) by Single Years of Age, Aged 15-35, Constructed from First Marriage Rates, 1950-81, and Reported in the Sample Survey, 1982 A-5 Number of Ever-Married Women (in loos) by Duration Since First Marriage, 1970-82 A-6 Number of Births and Marital Fertility Rate at Each Duration of Marriage, 1970, 1977, and 1981 viii 81 82 84 85

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LIST OF FIGURES 2 3 4 9 13 17 1 Total Fertility Rates for Urban and Rural Areas and for China, 1952-82 Age Pyramid of the Population, 1982 Death Rates (per 1,000) from Recorded Deaths and Adjusted for Underreporting, 1953-82 Proportion of Females Surviving Between Successive Censuses for Each Age Number of Persons Under Age 30 in 1982 and Number of Persons Under Age 11 in 1964 (in millions) by Single Years of Age, as Projected and Enumerated in the Census 6 Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) by Single Years of Age, 1953, 1964, and 1982 Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) by Year of Birth for Censuses of 1953, 1964, and 1982 8 Completeness of Recording of Births, 1953-81 Total Female First-Marriage Rate (sum of first marriage frequencies), 1950-82 10 Mean Age at First Marriage of Females, 1950-82 11 Proportion of Ever-Married Women, by Single Years of Age, Cohorts Aged 15 in 1950, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1973 12 Proportion of Ever-Married Women, Cohorts Aged 15 in 1950, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1973 and Standard Curves Fitted to Ages 16.5 and 20.5 Ratio of Age-Specific Marital Fertility to Natural Fertility, 1956, 1961, 1970, 1975, and 1980 Total Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban Populations, 1950-81 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban Populations, 1955, 1968, and 1980 16 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Ethnic Minority Women and Rural Han Women, 1981 Age-Specific Mortality Rates, Females, 1953-64, 1964-82, 1973-75, and 1978 ix 6 7 19 22 23 24 29 40 42 43 44 56 60 61 63 68

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PREFACE This report, using analyses of recently available census and survey data on the population of China, presents the demographic history of China during the past 30 years. The report uses detailed assessments of data from a major 1982 fertility survey and the 1982 census of China, which became available at the end of 1983, to develop estimates of three major population processes for 1952-82: fertility, nuptiality, and mortality. With the rapid expansion in world population in recent decades, fertility and its determinants have been urgent topics for research. Attempts to affect population growth have focused on reducing fertility, with some apparent effect. The peak rate of growth in the world's population has now passed although growth is still at a high level in almost all the developing countries. In absolute numbers, the increase in the world's population continues to rise: according to United Nations medium projections, more people will be added each year for the next 35-40 years than were added in 1980. In this context, China's recent rapid declines in fertility and mortality are remarkable; moreover, China's decline in fertility has contributed substantially to the modest reduction in the world rate of population growth. This report on China is number 27 in a series of reports prepared by the Committee on Population and Demography and its several panels. (A complete list of these reports is printed on the inside back cover.) The committee was established in 1977 by the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council (NRC). Funded for a period of 5-1/2 years by the Agency for International Development (AID), the committee undertook three major tasks: xi

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1. To evaluate available evidence and prepare estimates of levels and trends of fertility and mortality in selected developing nations; To improve the technologies for estimating fertility and mortality when only incomplete or inadequate data exist (including techniques of data collection); and 3. To evaluate the factors determining the changes in birth rates in less developed nations. About half of the reports resulting from these tasks are concerned with demographic estimates in less-developed countries and with methodology and the other half are concerned with the determinants of fertility. In its early deliberations about which countries to include in its work, the committee did not select China for several reasons, primarily the nonavailability of an adequate data base for a scientific assessment of fertility and mortality trends. At that time, it was not foreseen that it would be possible later on to prepare a comprehensive report on the demography of China. However the committee was interested in China, and, with cospon- sorship by the NRC's Committee on Scholarly Communication with the People's Republic of China and modest support from the U.S. Department of State, a workshop on popula- tion research in China was held at the National Academy of Sciences in October 1980; the proceedings were published by the National Academy Press in 1981. This report on China has been made possible by a grant from The Rockefeller Foundation and with support from the NRC Fund.* *The National Research Council (NRC, Fund is a pool of private, discretionary, non-federal funds that is used to support a program of Academy-initiated studies of national issues in which science and technology figure significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from: a consortium of private foundations including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; the Academy Industry Program, xii

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The committee and the National Research Council wish to thank Ansley J. Coale for preparing this report, and indeed for doing so within such a short period of time. Sincere thanks are also extended to the reviewers who both read the report on short notice and attended a review meeting in Washington in April 1984. Several other individuals assisted in the production of this report. Marleen Stern and Kathryn Reynolds typed the draft and tables in Princeton, and Barbara Vaughan assisted with computer tabulations. At the NRC, Lucy Santiago typed the camera-ready copy of text and tables, Eugenia Grohman edited the report, and Elaine McGarraugh handled all of the production editing details. The committee extends its gratitude to these individuals for their contributions to the report. Finally, this is a fitting occasion to thank Ansley J. Coale for his leadership of the Committee on Population and Demography and his many contributions to its products. The committee's extensive accomplishments owe much to those contributions and especially to his effectiveness as committee chair. Robert J. Lapham, Study Director Committee on Population and Demography which seeks annual contributions from companies that are concerned with the health of U.S. science and technology and with public policy issues with technological content; and the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering endowments. ~ x'

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