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--> Hydrologic Sciences Taking Stock and Looking Ahead Proceedings of the 1997 Abel Wolman Distinguished Lecture and Symposium on the Hydrologic Sciences Water Science and Technology Board Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998
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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Support for this project was provided by the Department of Energy under Agreement No. DE-FG02-93ER61547, the National Science Foundation under Agreement No. BES-9812445, the U.S. Geological Survey under Agreement No. 98HQAG2023, and the National Water Research Institute. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-84689 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06076-1 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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--> THE ABEL WOLMAN DISTINGUISHED LECTURER THOMAS DUNNE, University of California, Santa Barbara SYMPOSIUM MODERATOR DAVID L. FREYBURG, Stanford University SYMPOSIUM CONTRIBUTORS DIANE M. McKNIGHT, University of Colorado ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University FRED M. PHILLIPS, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology STEPHEN J. BURGES, University of Washington SYMPOSIUM DISCUSSANTS KAYE L. BRUBAKER, University of Maryland DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DAVID P. GENEREUX, Florida International University EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU, University of Minnesota SYMPOSIUM COORDINATORS LAURA EHLERS, Program Officer ANITA HALL, Production Assistant SHEILA DAVID, Program Officer (through 6/97)
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--> WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD HENRY J. VAUX, JR., Chair, University of California, Riverside DAVID L. FREYBURG, Chair (through 6/97), Stanford University CAROL A. JOHNSTON, Vice Chair, University of Minnesota, Duluth BRUCE E. RITTMANN, Vice Chair (through 6/97), Northwestern University LINDA M. ABRIOLA (through 6/97), University of Michigan JOHN S. BOYER, University of Delaware JOHN BRISCOE, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM E. EICHBAUM (through 6/97), World Wildlife Fund, Washington, D.C. DENISE FORT, University of New Mexico WILFORD L. GARDNER (through 6/97), University of California, Berkeley (retired) EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, St. Paul THOMAS M. HELLMAN, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, New York, New York CHARLES D. D. HOWARD, Charles Howard and Associates, Victoria, British Columbia WILLIAM A. JURY, University of California, Riverside WILLIAM M. LEWIS, JR., University of Colorado, Boulder RICHARD G. LUTHY, Carnegie Mellon University JOHN W. MORRIS, J. W. Morris Ltd., Arlington, Virginia CHARLES R. O'MELIA, The Johns Hopkins University REBECCA T. PARKIN, American Public Health Association, Washington, D.C. IGNACIO RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE (through 6/97), Texas A&M University FRANK W. SCHWARTZ, Ohio State University ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University Staff STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director JACQUELINE A. MACDONALD, Associate Director CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer LAURA J. EHLERS, Staff Officer JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Staff Officer MARK GIBSON, Research Assistant M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant ELLEN A. de GUZMAN, Senior Project Assistant KIMBERLY A. SWARTZ, Project Assistant
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--> COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair, University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA S. KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts JUDITH E. McDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington and Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDRA S. FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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--> Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. This independent review provided candid and critical comments that assisted the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and ensured that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Raphael Bras, Massachusetts Institute of Technology George Hornberger, University of Virginia Marc Parlange, The Johns Hopkins University Suresh Rao, University of Florida M. Gordon Wolman, The Johns Hopkins University While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
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--> Contents Overview 1 1 Wolman Lecture: Hydrologic Science . . . in Landscapes . . . on a Planet . . . in the Future Thomas Dunne 10 2 Aquatic Ecosystems: Defined by Hydrology. Holistic Approaches Required for Understanding, Utilizing, and Protecting Freshwater Resources Diane M. McKnight 44 3 Hydrologic Measurements and Observations: An Assessment of Needs Eric F. Wood 67 4 Ground Water Dating and Isotope Chemistry Fred M. Phillips 87 5 Streamflow Prediction: Capabilities, Opportunities, and Challenges Stephen J. Burges 101 Appendix: Biographical Sketches of Abel Wolman Distinguished Lecturer and Symposium on Hydrologic Sciences 135
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