lowed that plan and in January 1997 provided to the panel county estimates of the number of school-age children in 1994 who were living in and related to a family in poverty in 1993, which were intended to be used for Title I allocations for the 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 school years.

In its first interim report (National Research Council, 1997), the panel strongly supported a model-based approach for developing county estimates of poor school-age children. In selecting a model, however, the panel noted that it is important to conduct a thorough evaluation to assess the reasonableness of the model's assumptions, to examine the model's predictions to see that they contain no identifiable systematic errors, and to compare alternative models. Such an evaluation is a critical component of a model-based approach.

The panel concluded that the Census Bureau's original model was a substantial step toward the provision of more up-to-date county estimates of poor school-age children. However, there had not been time to complete a full evaluation of the model prior to release of the original 1993 estimates to the panel in January 1997. Therefore, the panel did not recommend sole use of those estimates to allocate funds under Title I. Instead, the panel recommended to the Secretaries of Education and Commerce that an average of the 1990 census estimates (which pertain to poverty status in 1989) and the Census Bureau's original model-based estimates of poor school-age children in 1993 be used to allocate Title I funds for the 1997-1998 school year.

In April 1997 the Department of Education allocated Title I funds for the 1997-1998 school year on the basis of the panel's recommended averaging procedure. The department subsequently requested that the panel and the Census Bureau carry out an in-depth evaluation of the Census Bureau's model and reasonable alternative models. It further requested that, on the basis of the evaluation findings, the Census Bureau develop a revised set of county estimates of the number of poor school-age children for 1993 and that the panel evaluate the appropriateness and reliability of the revised estimates for use in Title I allocations for the 1998-1999 school year. (There was neither time, nor a legislative requirement, for the Census Bureau to produce estimates for later than 1993.)

Between June and October 1997 the Census Bureau carded out extensive evaluations of its model and alternative models. On the basis of those evaluations, it revised the county model and prepared a revised set of 1993 county estimates of poor school-age children, which were provided to the panel in October 1997. The panel commends the Census Bureau for its work in developing a model-based approach for updated county-level estimates of school-age children in poverty. It also commends the Census Bureau's efforts, carded out in a short time period, to fully evaluate the original county model and alternatives to it.

The panel has undertaken a full assessment of the Census Bureau's work and the evaluation results. On the basis of its review, the panel makes the following recommendation for use of the revised 1993 estimates:

FRONT MATTER (R1-R12)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1-4)

1. INTRODUCTION (5-8)

2. CENSUS BUREAU ESTIMATION PROCEDURE (9-19)

3. ALTERNATIVE COUNTY MODELS (20-32)

4. EVALUATIONS (33-77)

5. RECOMMENDATION FOR TITLE I ALLOCATIONS FOR THE 1998-1999 SCHOOL YEAR (78-82)

6. FUTURE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR COUNTY ESTIMATES (83-92)

APPENDIX A. MODELS FOR COUNTY AND STATE POVERTY ESTIMATES (93-108)

APPENDIX B. POPULATION ESTIMATES (109-123)

APPENDIX C. REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS ON ALTERNATIVE COUNTY REGRESSION MODELS (124-132)

APPENDIX D. COUNTY MODEL COMPARISONS WITH 1990 CENSUS ESTIMATES (133-165)

REFERENCES (166-168)

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF (169-173)