Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty

Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations

Constance F. Citro, Michael L. Cohen, and Graham Kalton, Editors

Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998



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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations Constance F. Citro, Michael L. Cohen, and Graham Kalton, Editors Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The project that is the subject of this report is supported by Contract RN96131001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Education. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20055. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu. International Standard Book Number 0-309-6045-1 Printed in the United States of America. Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations PANEL ON ESTIMATES OF POVERTY FOR SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS GRAHAM KALTON (Chair), Westat, Rockville, Maryland DAVID M. BETSON, Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame NANCY E. DUNTON, Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri WAYNE A. FULLER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant, Washington, D.C. SYLVIA T. JOHNSON, School of Education, Howard University THOMAS A. LOUIS, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota SALLY C. MORTON, RAND, Santa Monica, California JEFFREY S. PASSEL, Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. J.N.K. RAO, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University ALLEN L. SCHIRM, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. PAUL R. VOSS, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin JAMES H. WYCKOFF, Graduate School of Public Affairs, State University of New York, Albany ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Staff Officer KIRSTEN K. WEST, Research Associate MEYER ZITTER, Consultant CANDICE S. EVANS, Senior Project Assistant

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1997-1998 NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair), National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University JOHN F. GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis ERIC A. HANUSHEK, W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy and Department of Economics, University of Rochester RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS A. LOUIS, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University JANET L. NORWOOD, Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of Washington PAUL R. ROSENBAUM, Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania KEITH F. RUST, Westat, Rockville, Maryland FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis MIRON L. STRAF, Director ANDREW WHITE, Deputy Director

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations Contents     ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS   ix     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   5 2   CENSUS BUREAU ESTIMATION PROCEDURE   9     Revised County Model   11     State Model   15     Raking the County Estimates to State Estimates   17     Estimating Proportions   18     Differences Between Two Procedures   18 3   ALTERNATIVE COUNTY MODELS   20     Model Characteristics   21     Models Examined in First Round of Evaluations   22     Models Examined in Second Round of Evaluations   30 4   EVALUATIONS   33     Internal Evaluation: County Model Regression Output   35     External Evaluation: Comparisons with 1990 Census County Estimates   41     CPS-Census Differences   66     External Evaluation: Local Assessment of 1993 County Estimates   67     State Model   70     Use of Postcensal Population Estimates   74

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations 5   RECOMMENDATION FOR TITLE I ALLOCATIONS FOR THE 1998-1999 SCHOOL YEAR   78     Background   78     Recommendation   79     Special Case: Puerto Rico   81 6   FUTURE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR COUNTY ESTIMATES   83     Overview of Research Needs   84     Short-Term Research Priorities for the County Model   87     Longer Term Research and Development for the County Model   90     APPENDICES         A MODELS FOR COUNTY AND STATE POVERTY ESTIMATES   95     B POPULATION ESTIMATES   109     C REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS ON ALTERNATIVE COUNTY REGRESSION MODELS   124     D COUNTY MODEL COMPARISON WITH 1990 CENSUS ESTIMATES   133     REFERENCES   166     BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF   169

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations Tables and Figures TABLES 3-1   Single-Equation County Models: Dependent Variable and Predictor Variables   24 3-2   Bivariate County Models: Dependent Variable, Predictor Variables, and Form of the Predictor Variables for the CPS Equation for 1993   28 4-1   Estimates of Regression Coefficients for Four Candidate County Models for 1989 and 1993   38 4-2   Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number and Proportion of Poor Related Children Aged 5-17 in 1989   45 4-3   Comparison of Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County   47 4-4   Agreement Between Model Estimates for 1989 and 1990 Census County Estimates for Proportions of School-Age Children in Poverty in 1989   65 4-5   Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the State Model for 1989 and 1993   72 B-1   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Population Size in 1990   116 B-2   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Growth Rate, 1980-1990   117 B-3   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Black and Other Nonwhite Population, 1990   118

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations B-4   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Hispanic Population, 1990   119 B-5   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Poor Population, 1990   120 B-6   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Group Quarters Residents, 1990   121 B-7   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Census Division   122 B-8   Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Metropolitan Status, 1990   123 C-1   Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the CPS Equation for 13 County Models   128 C-2   Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the 1990 Census Equation for the 1993 Bivariate Models   130 D-1   Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County   136 D-2   Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category,   142 D-3   Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989   148 D-4   Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County   154 D-5   Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category   160 FIGURES 4-1   Change in poverty rate for school-age children, 1980-1990: Category differences from the 1990 census   56 4-2   Population growth, 1980-1990: Category differences from the 1990 census   57 4-3   Population size, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census   59 4-4   Percent Hispanic population, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census   60 4-5   Percent group quarters residents, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census   62 4-6   Census division: Category differences from the 1990 census   64

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations Acknowledgments The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas wishes to thank the many people who contributed to the preparation of this, the panel's second interim report. We wish to thank particularly the staff of the Census Bureau who worked with us in June-October 1997 to evaluate the Census Bureau's original model and alternative models for producing county estimates of poor school-age children in 1993: William Bell, John Coder, Robert Fay, Robin Fisher, Matt Kramer, Mark Otto, Paul Siegel, and George Train. We also thank the Census Bureau staff who facilitated the arrangements for the work: Cynthia Clark, Nancy Gordon, Charles Nelson, and Daniel Weinberg. Members of the Census Bureau's Population Division, including Bashir Ahmed, Michael Batutis, Sam Davis, John Long, Barbara Martin, Esther Miller, Douglas Sater, Larry Sink, Signe Wetrogan, and Janet Wysocki, provided informative briefings and evaluation materials on the county population estimates of school-age children. Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics, who serves as the Department of Education project officer for the study, was helpful as always in facilitating this phase of its work. The panel also appreciates the continued help of other Department of Education staff, in particular, Sandy Brown, Kay Rigling, William Sonnenberg, and Stephanie Stullich, in educating us about the Title I allocation process. I thank my panel colleagues for their continued commitment to the work of the panel and to its second interim report, which was prepared, like the first, under a very demanding time schedule. We were assisted by a very able staff. Constance Citro, who became the panel's study director in spring 1997, had

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations overall responsibility for the project. Without her excellent work in preparing and revising drafts of the report, we would not have been able to complete this report on time. Michael Cohen made important contributions to the evaluation of alternative models and to many sections of the report. Meyer Zitter, with the help of Kirsten West, ably assisted the panel's working group on the county population estimates and provided other materials for the panel. Candice Evans provided administrative support for our study and capably and cheerfully carried the brunt of the work to produce the report. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, contributed substantially to the readability of the report through her fine technical editing. To all we are grateful. Graham Kalton, Chair Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty - Interim Report 2: Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty

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