REVIEW OF THE Research Program of the PARTNERSHIP for a NEW GENERATION of VEHICLES FOURTH REPORT

Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

Transportation Research Board

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D. C.
1998



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REVIEW OF THE Research Program of the PARTNERSHIP for a NEW GENERATION of VEHICLES FOURTH REPORT Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems Transportation Research Board National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D. C. 1998

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N. W. Washington, D. C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DTNH22-94-G-07414 from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Catalog Number: 98-84940 International Standard Book Number: 0-309-06087-7 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N. W. HA-270 Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3344 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N. W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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STANDING COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES TREVOR O. JONES (chair), NAE,1 Echlin, Inc., Cleveland, Ohio HARRY E. COOK, NAE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign R. GARY DIAZ, Navistar, Chicago, Illinois DAVID E. FOSTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison DAVID HAGEN, The Engineering Society of Detroit, Southfield, Michigan SIMONE HOCHGREB, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge FRITZ KALHAMMER, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge HAROLD H. KUNG, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois CRAIG MARKS, NAE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOHN NEWMAN, University of California, Berkeley JEROME G. RIVARD, NAE, Global Technology and Business Development, Harrison Township, Michigan VERNON P. ROAN, University of Florida, Palm Beach Gardens SUPRAMANIAM SRINIVASAN, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey F. BLAKE WALLACE, Allison Engine Company (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana Committee Subgroup on Nonelectrochemical Storage Devices DAVID HAGEN (chair) CRAIG MARKS JEROME G. RIVARD Committee Subgroup on Electrical and Electronic Systems JOHN G. KASSAKIAN (chair) JEROME G. RIVARD R. GARY DIAZ Committee Subgroup on Systems Analysis JEROME G. RIVARD (chair) R. GARY DIAZ JOHN G. KASSAKIAN HARRY E. COOK 1   NAE=National Academy of Engineering

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Committee Subgroup on Batteries and Ultracapacitors SUPRAMANIAM SRINIVASAN (chair) FRITZ KALHAMMER JOHN NEWMAN VERNON P. ROAN Committee Subgroup on Fuels CRAIG MARKS (chair) DAVID E. FOSTER SIMONE HOCHGREB HAROLD H. KUNG JOHN NEWMAN Committee Subgroup on Fuel Cells VERNON P. ROAN (chair) SUPRAMANIAM SRINIVASAN SIMONE HOCHGREB FRITZ KALHAMMER HAROLD H. KUNG JOHN NEWMAN Committee Subgroup on Internal Combustion Engines DAVID E. FOSTER (chair) CRAIG MARKS DAVID HAGEN SIMONE HOCHGREB HAROLD H. KUNG Committee Subgroup on Continuous Combustion Engines F. BLAKE WALLACE (chair) VERNON P. ROAN R. GARY DIAZ CRAIG MARKS JEROME G. RIVARD Committee Subgroup on Materials HARRY E. COOK (chair) DAVID HAGEN F. BLAKE WALLACE

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Committee Subgroup on Vehicle Technology Selection CRAIG MARKS (chair) HARRY E. COOK DAVID E. FOSTER DAVID HAGEN Committee Subgroup on Cost Analysis TREVOR O. JONES (chair) DAVID HAGEN JEROME G. RIVARD Project Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) NAN HUMPHREY, senior program officer, Transportation Research Board (TRB) SUSANNA E. CLARENDON, senior project assistant and financial associate, (BEES)

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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ROBERT L. HIRSCH (chair), Advanced Power Technologies, Inc., Washington, D. C. RICHARD MESERVE (vice chair), Covington and Burling, Washington, D. C. EVERET H. BECKNER, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico JAN BEYEA, Consulting in the Public Interest, Lambertville, New Jersey CHARLES CURTIS, Hogan and Hartson, Washington, D. C. (through February 1998) E. GAIL DE PLANQUE,NAE,1 former commissioner of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Potomac, Maryland WILLIAM L. FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratories (retired), and University of Tennessee, Knoxville ROY G. GORDON, NAS,2 Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts EDWIN E. KINTNER, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Norwich, Vermont K. ANNE STREET, GEO-CENTERS, Rockville, Maryland LINDA GILLESPIE STUNTZ, Stuntz and Davis, P.C., Washington, D.C. JAMES SWEENEY, Stanford University, Stanford, California KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan IRVIN WHITE, UTECH, Inc., Fairfax, Virginia Liason Members from the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems RUTH M. DAVIS, NAE, Pymatuning Group, Inc. Alexandria, Virginia LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, NAE, Bechtel Technology and Consulting, San Francisco, California Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director TRACY WILSON, senior program officer JILL WILSON, senior program officer SUSANNA CLARENDON, financial associate PATRICIA SPAULDING, project assistant (through February 6, 1998) 1   NAE=National Academy of Engineering 2   NAS=National Academy of Sciences

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Acknowledgments The committee wishes to thank all the members of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Research Council study, whether by giving presentations at meetings, providing responses to committee requests for information, or hosting site visits. The committee also acknowledges the valuable contributions of organizations outside the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, including organizations outside the United States that provided information on advanced vehicle technologies and development initiatives. Finally, the chairman wishes to recognize the committee members and the staff of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems of the National Research Council for their hard work organizing and planning committee meetings and for their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the follow individuals for their participation in the review of this report: William Agnew, General Motors Research Laboratories (retired); Tom Cackett, California Air Resources Board; Robert Frosch, Harvard University; John Heywood, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; John Longwell, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Phillip Myers, University of

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Wisconsin; Lawrence T. Papay, Bechtel Technology and Consulting; and Dale Stein, Michigan Technological University (retired). While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   14 2   DEVELOPMENT OF VEHICLE SUBSYSTEMS   20     Candidate Systems   20     Internal Combustion Reciprocating Engines   22     Continuous Combustion Engines   31     Fuel Cells   35     Electrochemical Energy Storage   40     Flywheels   44     Power Electronics and Electrical Systems   47     Materials   49 3   SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   56     Program Status and Future Plans   57     Areas of Concern   60     Recommendations   61 4   TECHNOLOGY SELECTION FOR CONCEPT VEHICLES   62     Methodology and Results of Technology Selection   63     Concept Vehicles   67     Post-2000 Concept Vehicles   69     Hybrid Vehicle Development   69     Recommendation   69

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5   FUEL STRATEGY   70     Potential Fuel Modifications and Benefits   70     Fuel Industry   72     Conclusions   73     Recommendations   73 6   MAJOR CROSSCUTTING ISSUES   75     Technology Selection: Economic Viability of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle   76     Adequacy and Balance of the PNGV Program   77     Major Achievements and Technical Barriers   80     Vehicle Safety   82     Developments in Foreign Technology   83     PNGV Goals 1 and 2   84     Government Involvement in Post-Concept Vehicles   85     PNGV's Interactions with Other Federal Research Programs   86 7   PNGV'S RESPONSE TO THE PHASE 3 REPORT   89     REFERENCES   93     APPENDICES         A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   99     B Letters from PNGV   105     C Statement of Task and Related Letters from PNGV   110     D Committee Meetings and Other Activities   113     E United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR) Consortia   116     F The PNGV Technology Selection Announcement   117     ACRONYMS   121

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Tables and Figures TABLES ES-1   Most Promising Technologies Selected by PNGV in 1997,   6 2-1   Critical Characteristics of the CIDI Engine vs. PNGV Milestone Targets,   25 2-2   PNGV Design Targets for Short-Term Energy Storage,   41 2-3   Vehicle Weight Reduction Targets for the Goal 3 Vehicle,   51 3-1   Response of the PNGV Systems Analysis Team to the Committee's Third Report,   58 4-1   Attributes of the PNGV Goal 3 Vehicle,   63 4-2   PNGV Criteria for Year 2000 Concept Vehicle Technology Selection,   64 4-3   Most Promising Technologies Selected by the PNGV in 1997,   66 6-1   Fuel Comparison for the Technologies Selected for the Concept Vehicles,   77 6-2   PNGV's Assessment of Major Barriers and Program Needs,   81 FIGURES ES-1   Relative fuel economy projections for various vehicle/power train configurations,   7 4-1   Relative fuel economy projections for various vehicle/power train configurations,   67 4-2   Alternatives for energy conversion,   68

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